This work presents a method to estimate the spatial distribution of new cases of dengue disease in the States of Alagoas and Paraíba, Northeast Brazil. The estimative is obtained through downscaling the ECHAM 4.5 Global Model precipitation to the regional spatial scale of the NCEP's RSM model and then, performing a linear mathematical regression. The estimated and observed cases of dengue in both locals are in good agreement, evidencing a good relationship between the estimated precipitation and the actual cases of dengue. as one can see, the precipitation forecasted through these models represents a good approximation to the observed values, which has positively influenced the results presented here for the dengue disease.
numerical prediction; precipitation; downscaling; dengue
