Climate changes impact estimation on urban drainage system located in low latitudes districts: a study case in Fortaleza-CE

Sabóia, Marcos Abílio Medeiros de; Souza, Francisco de Assis de; Araújo, Luiz Martins de; Silveira, Cleiton da Silva

doi:10.1590/2318-0331.011716074

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Scientific/Technical Article • RBRH 22 • 2017 • https://doi.org/10.1590/2318-0331.011716074 copy

Climate changes impact estimation on urban drainage system located in low latitudes districts: a study case in Fortaleza-CE

Avaliação do impacto das mudanças climáticas no sistema de drenagem urbana em localidades situadas em baixas latitudes: um estudo de caso em Fortaleza-CE

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

The observed changes in extreme weather events reflect the influence of climate change caused by anthropogenic factors, in addition to natural climate variability. According to future climate projections, the increase in the average surface temperature will cause major changes in the average annual rainfall of almost the entire planet. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of possible scenarios of climate change on urban drainage system in locations situated at low latitudes. The specific location of the study was one of the Rio Cocó sub-basins in the city of Fortaleza-CE. It was used rainfall data generated by 6 (six) different global circulation models: bcc-CSM1, CanESM2, CCSM4, CESM1-CAM5, inmcm4 and MIROC5. These data were extracted and interpolated to the city of Fortaleza-CE. This information was used in order to generate new IDF equations designed for the future, by using the “Equidistance Quantile Matching Method”, based on climate projections RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The new values of rainfall generated by these new IDF curves were used as input data to HEC-HMS program, which is capable of calculating flow and volume disposed in a particular basin. The results showed that large increases in flow rates and volumes disposed in the analyzed drainage system will occur, and that the RCP 8.5 scenario presented even more pronounced values than the ones generated by the scenario RCP 4.5.

Keywords:
Climate changes; IDF curves; Global circulation models; Urban drainage

Country	Model	Research Center	Resolution (Longitude x Latitude)
China	Bcc-csm1	Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration	2.8 × 2.8
Canada	CanESM2	Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis	2.8 × 2.8
United States	CCSM4	National Center of Atmospheric Research	1.25 × 0.94
United States	CESM1-CAM5	National Center of Atmospheric Research	1.25 × 0.94
Russia	inmcm4	Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russia	2.00 × 1.50
Japan	MIROC5	Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology	1.4 × 1.41

Sub-Basin	Basin Area (km²)	CN	Time Lag (hours)	Stretch	Lenght (m)	Slope (m/m)	N (Manning)	Shape	Bottom Width (m)	Side Slope
57	0.3583	80	1.06
73.1	0.1816	80	0.6
				73	488	0.0035	0.02	Trapezoidal	2.4	1
B73	0.1184	80	0.69
75.1	0.1541	80	1.1
				75	285	0.001	0.02	Trapezoidal	3.5	1
79	0.38	80	1.08
75	0.0881	80	0.5
DAM	0.1061	80	0.4
PRAX	0.2498	80	0.5
				A3	402.8	0.0038	0.025	Trapezoidal	2.65	0.85
BA3	0.1071	80	0.4
89	0.28	80	0.5
114.1	0.1108	80	0.8
				A2	261.4	0.0025	0.025	Trapezoidal	2.6	0.84
				A1	75.3	0.0032	0.025	Trapezoidal	2.6	0.84
A2A	0.0753	80	0.4
113	0.0864	80	0.35
100	0.2983	80	0.5
				A	436.3	0.003	0.0025	Trapezoidal	2.6	0.84
A	0.11	80	0.4
120	0.314	80	0.5
116	0.0968	80	0.44
				B	125.8	0.0045	0.025	Trapezoidal	2.6	0.84
BB	0.0203	80	0.3
126	0.0532		0.36
135	0.0236	80	0.4
				C	136.3	0.0029	0.025	Trapezoidal	2.6	0.84
BC	0.0161	80	0.222
134	0.0204	80	0.47
129	0.0476	80	0.5
				D	226.3	0.0027	0.025	Trapezoidal	2.6	0.84

Models	RCP 4.5	RCP 8.5
Bcc-csm1	$i = \frac{734.8541 . T^{0.0873}}{{(t + 20.6649)}^{0.7476}}$	$i = \frac{788.4440 . T^{0.0876}}{{(t + 20.8779)}^{0.7278}}$
CanESM2	$i = \frac{702.8991 . T^{0.1427}}{{(t + 19.1330)}^{0.6931}}$	$i = \frac{691.5597 . T^{0.1962}}{{(t + 16.7853)}^{0.6415}}$
CCSM4	$i = \frac{620.9295 . T^{0.2544}}{{(t + 17.3028)}^{0.6489}}$	$i = \frac{686.3308 . T^{0.2026}}{{(t + 14.2544)}^{0.6055}}$
CESM1-CAM5	$i = \frac{736.9068 . T^{0.1624}}{{(t + 14.4142)}^{0.6079}}$	$i = \frac{876.0093 . T^{0.2255}}{{(t + 7.6045)}^{0.5107}}$
inmcm4	$i = \frac{541.0216 . T^{0.3291}}{{(t + 12.2910)}^{0.5787}}$	$i = \frac{762.2614 . T^{0.1619}}{{(t + 19.7644)}^{0.6843}}$
MIROC5	$i = \frac{639.8823 . T^{0.2003}}{{(t + 15.9149)}^{0.6361}}$	$i = \frac{647.7016 . T^{0.1897}}{{(t + 19.6886)}^{0.7040}}$

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[1] E-mails: marcos_abilio@hotmail.com (MAMS), assis@ufc.br (FASF), lu.m.a.junior@gmail.com (LMAJ), cleitonsilveira@unilab.edu.br (CSS)