Population growth of the golden mussel (L. fortunei) in hydroelectric power plants: a study via mathematical and computational modeling

Crescimento populacional do mexilhão dourado (L. fortunei) em reservatórios de hidroelétricas: um estudo via modelagem matemática e computacional

ABSTRACT

Golden mussel is an invasive species in Brazil which impacts local environments, dislocating native species and altering microecological conditions as well as affecting hydroelectric power plants and water treatment systems. The objective of this research is to establish a method that is both effective and efficient to quantify the population of the Golden mussel in hydroelectric power plant reservoirs, with a focus on population control measures. A two-dimensional mathematical model was developed combining hydrodynamics and populational dynamics to simulate the distribution of mussels in a reservoir. The results showed that dam’s region was progressively infested, and after 18 months of simulation it has reached around 80% of its carrying capacity. The method proved to be satisfactory and the generated map of cluster locations for the golden mussel corresponds to field observations. Furthermore, the result of the algae density simulation matched chlorophyll-a density map obtained from satellite images. The methodology can be further applied to new areas and could be expanded to predict population variations in order to guide environmental measures for preservation and recovery of impacted reservoirs, presenting another tool for hydroelectric operators who can use information together with field inspections to plan maintenance intervals before infestation damages equipment.

Keywords:
Populational dynamics; Mathematical modeling; Bioinvasion; Diffusion-advection-reaction equations; Plaint operation