Impacto das alterações do uso e cobertura do solo na vazão da bacia do rio Paraíba do Sul utilizando o modelo SWAT

ABSTRACT

The main purpose of this work was to analyze the impact of land use and cover change in the Paraíba do Sul basin using SWAT model. Two land use and cover scenarios were analyzed, one referring to the year 1986 and other to the year 2015. The results showed that the SWAT model adjusted very well to the basin after calibration and validation. In addition, it was observed that in the scenario of 2015 the long-term flow rate was lower in a large part of the study area, especially the sub-basins in the stretch of the Paraibuna river. It was noticed that the changes in the behavior of the permanence curve were more representative in the Paraibuna river and in the Preto river. In the first one, due to the decrease of the forest area, the drought conditions and minimum flows were intensified. In the second, water availability improved in the 2015 scenario. Finally, the results presented here along with the calibrated SWAT model can help the water resource managers in the Paraíba do Sul basin and future works that aim to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the streamflow.

Keywords:
Remote sensing; Water resources; Hydrological modeling