Social inequality, human development and fertility pattern in Brazil, 2000-2010

this is an ecological study whose unit of analysis was the Brazilian Federative Units in the period of 2000 and 2010. The fertility was assessed considering the social (HDI), inequality, (Gini, Theil and Income Ratio) and fertility indicators (fertility rate and mean age of fertility).

Results:

Brazil has been experiencing a rapid fertility transition. The pattern of fertility curves changed in all Federative Units between 2000 and 2010, with a reduction in cusp size and postponement of fecundity. This change was more evident among the Federative Units with better development and lower inequality. The correlation between social and fertility indicators lost strength in the period, corroborating the transition hypothesis.

Conclusions:

there is a direct relation between the fecundity and inequality indicators, and inversing human development. Changes should be taken in consideration in the age structure of the population, as well as inequality indicators, for better planning in public policies for public health.

Key words
Fertility; Demography; Human development indicators; Fertility postponement; Public policies

FU	Social Indicators								Reproductive Indicators
	10/40 Ratio		Theil -L Index 2000		Gini Index 2000		HDI		TFR		MFA
	2000	2010	2000	2010	2000	2010	2000	2010	2000	2010	2000	2010
Rondônia	23.92	17.86	0.64	0.56	0.60	0.56	0.537	0.69	2.75	2.16	24.64	25.64
Acre	32.17	29.35	0.72	0.73	0.64	0.63	0.517	0.663	3.42	2.95	25.74	26.40
Amazonas	39.77	33.55	0.78	0.8	0.67	0.65	0.515	0.674	3.45	2.59	26.02	26.16
Roraima	26.95	30.89	0.64	0.75	0.61	0.63	0.598	0.707	3.22	2.41	25.68	26.16
Pará	30.56	26.25	0.74	0.70	0.65	0.62	0.518	0.646	3.15	2.50	25.60	25.49
Amapá	27.79	24.07	0.70	0.68	0.62	0.60	0.577	0.708	3.63	2.48	26.09	26.24
Tocantins	31.68	23.33	0.73	0.68	0.65	0.60	0.525	0.699	2.95	2.41	24.91	25.70
Maranhão	33.43	28.61	0.75	0.74	0.65	0.62	0.476	0.639	3.20	2.56	25.79	25.62
Piauí	33.69	26.43	0.79	0.73	0.65	0.61	0.484	0.646	2.67	1.99	25.77	25.98
Ceará	36.33	24.97	0.81	0.72	0.67	0.61	0.541	0.682	2.84	1.99	27.03	27.06
Rio Grande do Norte	30.83	22.99	0.73	0.68	0.64	0.60	0.552	0.684	2.54	1.98	26.22	26.71
Paraíba	28.95	24.17	0.73	0.70	0.63	0.61	0.506	0.658	2.54	1.95	26.39	26.61
Pernambuco	33.76	26.63	0.79	0.74	0.66	0.62	0.544	0.673	2.48	1.92	26.01	26.27
Alagoas	38.76	27.17	0.82	0.75	0.68	0.63	0.471	0.631	3.14	2.22	26.44	26.07
Sergipe	30.93	25.71	0.76	0.72	0.65	0.62	0.518	0.665	2.74	1.95	26.70	26.88
Bahia	33.24	25.98	0.77	0.73	0.66	0.62	0.512	0.66	2.50	2.05	26.42	26.66
Minas Gerais	24.03	17.26	0.67	0.56	0.61	0.56	0.624	0.731	2.23	1.79	26.63	27.33
Espírito Santo	22.65	17.74	0.65	0.56	0.60	0.56	0.640	0.740	2.16	1.80	25.94	26.76
Rio de Janeiro	23.18	21.19	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.59	0.664	0.761	2.06	1.68	26.20	26.81
São Paulo	20.10	17.60	0.61	0.57	0.58	0.56	0.702	0.783	2.05	1.66	26.49	27.32
Paraná	22.43	15.23	0.65	0.51	0.60	0.53	0.650	0.749	2.30	1.86	26.24	26.90
Santa Catarina	17.51	11.63	0.56	0.42	0.56	0.49	0.674	0.774	2.23	1.71	26.61	27.31
Rio Grande do Sul	20.30	15.64	0.62	0.53	0.58	0.54	0.664	0.746	2.16	1.76	27.05	27.71
Mato Grosso do Sul	24.48	17.55	0.69	0.57	0.62	0.56	0.613	0.729	2.50	2.08	25.21	26.11
Mato Grosso	24.75	16.79	0.68	0.54	0.62	0.55	0.601	0.725	2.42	2.04	24.67	25.84
Goiás	22.55	16.27	0.65	0.53	0.6	0.55	0.615	0.735	2.23	1.87	24.81	26.18
Distrito Federal	30.96	28.23	0.79	0.76	0.63	0.63	0.725	0.824	1.96	1.75	26.54	27.78
Total	30.31	22.78	0.76	0.68	0.64	0.60	0.612	0.727	2.37	1.89	26.25	26.75

Instituto de Medicina Integral Prof. Fernando Figueira Rua dos Coelhos, 300. Boa Vista, 50070-550 Recife PE Brasil, Tel./Fax: +55 81 2122-4141 - Recife - PR - Brazil
E-mail: revista@imip.org.br

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[1] Authors’ contributions

Carreira GB - study design, data extraction, analysis and article writing. Dutra VGP - data analysis and critical review of the final article. Silva JHCM - extraction and data analysis. Guimarães RM - study design, data analysis and critical review of the final article. All authors approved the final version of the manuscript.

				2000
		10/40 Ratio	Theil	Gini	HDI	TFR	MFA
10/40 Ratio	ρ p valor	1.000	0.972 <0.001	0.978 <0.001	-0.649 <0.001	0.661 <0.001	-0.325 0.098
Theil	ρ p valor		1.000	0.973 <0.001	-0.603 0.001	0.568 0.002	-0,232 0.244
Gini	ρ p valor			1.000	-0.632 <0.001	0.620 0.001	-0.246 0.217
HDI	ρ p valor				1.000	-0.518 0.006	0.615 0.001
TFR	ρ p valor					1,000	-0.610 0.001
MFA	ρ p valor						1.000
				2010
		Razão 10/40	Theil	Gini	HDI	TFR	MFA
10/40 Ratio	ρ p valor	1.000
Theil	ρ p valor	0.929 <0.001	1.000
Gini	ρ p valor	0.967 <0.001	0.938 <0.001	1.000
HDI	ρ p valor	-0.771 <0.001	-0.650 <0.001	-0.786 <0.001	1.000
TFR	ρ p valor	0.441 0.021	0.287 0.146	0.378 0.052	-0.281 0.155	1.000
MFA	ρ p valor	-0.121 0.546	0.021 0.917	-0.098 0.628	0.340 0.083	-0.119 0.555	1.000