Evaluation of six distributions of probability at maximum temperature series in Iguatu - CE, Brazil

Araújo, Eliakim Martins; Silva, Italo Nunes; Oliveira, Joaquim Branco de; Cavalcante Junior, Edmilson Gomes; Almeida, Bruno Marçal de

doi:10.5935/1806-6690.20100005

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Engenharia Agrícola • Rev. Ciênc. Agron. 41 (1) • Jan-Mar 2010 • https://doi.org/10.5935/1806-6690.20100005 copy

Evaluation of six distributions of probability at maximum temperature series in Iguatu - CE, Brazil

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

This study had as objective to evaluate the distribution of probability that better adapts to daily series of maximum temperature in Iguatu city, Ceará, located in the Northeastern Brazil, with climate, according to Köppen, of the type BSw'h. Were used the distribution of probability functions Gumbel I, Gama, Log-normal, Normal, Weibull and Beta. The studied series included a period of 45 years (1961 to 2005), obtained from the 3rd District of the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET). The adherence of the distributions was tested by the tests Chi-square and Lilliefors both to the level of significance of 5%. The distribution that best fit the data series of maximum temperature for Iguatu - CE was the Normal distribution and the worse was the distribution of Gumbel type I.

Key words
Time series; Distributions of frequency; Adherence tests

Função distribuição de probabilidade	Aderência para o qui-quadrado
Função distribuição de probabilidade	J	F	M	A	M	J	J	A	S	O	N	D
Gumbel I	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.
Gama	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	^ns	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.
Log-normal	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	^ns	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.
Normal	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	^ns	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.
Weibull	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.
Beta	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.

Função distribuição de probabilidade	Aderência para o Lilliefors
Função distribuição de probabilidade	J	F	M	A	M	J	J	A	S	O	N	D
Gumbel I	^ns	^ns	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.
Gama	^ns	^ns	^ns	^ns	^ns	^ns	*.	^ns	^ns	^ns	*.	^ns
Log-normal	^ns	^ns	^ns	^ns	^ns	^ns	*.	*.	^ns	^ns	*.	^ns
Normal	^ns	^ns	^ns	^ns	^ns	^ns	^ns	^ns	^ns	^ns	^ns	^ns
Weibull	^ns	^ns	*.	^ns	*.	*.	^ns	*.	*.	*.	*.	*.
Beta	^ns	*.	*.	*.	*.	^ns	^ns	^ns	^ns	*.	*.	*.

Universidade Federal do Ceará Av. Mister Hull, 2977 - Bloco 487, Campus do Pici, 60356-000 - Fortaleza - CE - Brasil, Tel.: (55 85) 3366-9702 / 3366-9732, Fax: (55 85) 3366-9417 - Fortaleza - CE - Brazil
E-mail: ccarev@ufc.br

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