A CASE FOR INDUSTRIAL POLICY? FORECAST RESULTS FROM A DISAGGREGATED BOP-CONSTRAINED GROWTH MODEL FOR BRAZILIAN ECONOMY (2016-2025)

Rodrigues, Cryslãine Flavia da Silva; Lourenço, André Luís Cabral de

doi:10.1590/198055272512

Cryslãine Flavia da Silva Rodrigues

Ph.D student in Development Economics by the Postgraduate Program in Economics, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS). Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7995-2172

André Luís Cabral de Lourenço

Professor at the Economics Department, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN). Natal, RN, Brazil.

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6374-7302

Correspondência para: Cryslãine Flavia da Silva Rodrigues Contato: crys-cg@hotmail.com

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	Average
g*	3.40	3.66	3.78	3.87	3.90	3.69	3.48	3.27	3.23	3.19	3.55
π*	.42	3.56	3.47	3.50	3.51	3.51	3.51	3.51	3.51	3.51	3.50
i*	1.15	1.47	1.76	2.18	2.35	2.33	2.26	2.27	2.28	2.29	2.03
tt₁	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.94
tt₂	1.02	1.04	1.06	1.08	1.10	1.12	1.15	1.17	1.19	1.21	1.11
tt₃	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00

	ε₁	ε₂	ε₃	ξ₁	ξ₂	ξ₃
2016/2025	0.9163	0.9959	0.9161	2.1981	2.9059	2.0512
	η ₁	η ₂	η ₃	ψ ₁	ψ ₂	ψ ₃
2016/2025	-	-	-	-	-	- 0.7464

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	Average
g _BP	0.75	3.04	2.21	2.97	1.27	0.65	0.46	0.41	0.77	0.72	1.32
g ₁	0.69	2.40	1.93	2.67	1.32	0.72	0.67	0.68	1.03	1.01	1.31
g ₂	0.65	2.89	1.92	2.63	1.10	0.69	0.58	0.49	0.77	0.67	1.23
g ₃	1.08	3.75	3.23	4.14	1.82	0.56	0.11	0.14	0.77	0.85	1.64

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	Average
x ₁	3.12	3.36	3.46	3.54	3.57	3.38	3.19	3.00	2.96	2.92	3.25
x ₂	3.39	3.65	3.76	3.85	3.88	3.68	3.47	3.26	3.21	3.17	3.53
x ₃	3.11	3.36	3.46	3.54	3.57	3.38	3.19	3.00	2.96	2.92	3.25
m ₁	1.64	6.69	4.87	6.52	2.79	1.43	1.02	0.89	1.69	1.59	2.89
m ₂	2.17	8.84	6.43	8.62	3.69	1.89	1.35	1.18	2.24	2.10	3.81
m ₃	-18.53	8.19	1.85	5.54	4.13	5.10	8.75	7.85	7.96	6.98	3.46

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	Average
â _0,1	3.56	4.84	4.49	5.05	4.03	3.58	3.55	3.55	3.81	3.80	4.02
â _0,2	-1.14	0.24	-0.36	0.08	-0.87	-1.12	-1.19	-1.24	-1.07	-1.13	-0.78
â _0,3	-1.24	0.60	0.25	0.87	-0.73	-1.59	-1.90	-1.88	-1.44	-1.39	-0.85
u	10.34	9.95	9.58	8.85	8.48	8.38	8.31	8.27	8.08	7.83	8.81
$\frac{{\hat{W}}_{1}}{p_{1}}$	2.60	0.16	1.30	2.96	2.58	3.85	2.44	1.83	1.58	1.61	2.09
$\frac{{\hat{W}}_{2}}{p_{2}}$	2.05	-0.64	0.50	1.81	1.99	3.24	1.88	1.22	0.84	0.78	1.36
$\frac{{\hat{W}}_{3}}{p_{3}}$	0.31	-0.44	0.05	1.05	-0.08	-0.20	-1.13	-1.34	-1.13	-1.02	-0.40

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	Average
π	6.50	5.50	4.50	4.50	4.50	4.50	4.50	4.50	4.50	4.50	4.80
π₁	7.04	5.93	4.57	4.03	3.70	3.08	3.01	3.08	3.17	3.09	4.06
π₂	5.82	5.85	4.35	4.21	3.41	2.73	2.86	3.08	3.37	3.44	3.91
π₃	7.07	5.13	4.63	4.82	5.59	6.28	6.11	5.91	5.64	5.59	5.68
i	15.00	10.00	8.75	8.50	8.25	8.00	7.75	7.50	7.50	7.50	8.85
e	3.40	3.61	3.72	3.73	3.65	3.39	3.18	3.01	2.88	2.73	3.33
ω	-0.73	3.59	2.40	2.49	2.51	2.41	2.89	2.67	2.45	2.20	2.29

\frac{e_{t}}{e_{t + 1}^{e}} \equiv \frac{R_{t} - R_{t - 1} (1 + ê_{R}) - B C T_{t} - (ψ_{2, t} + f_{0} + f_{2} t) Y_{t}^{*}}{f_{1} [\frac{(1 + i_{t})}{(1 + i_{t}^{*}) (1 + I O F_{t}) (1 + ρ_{t}^{*})} + \frac{(1 + λ_{t - 1})}{(1 + λ_{t - 1}^{*}) (1 + ρ_{t}^{*})}] Y_{t}^{*}}

g_{B P} = \frac{(1 + g_{t}^{*}) (1 + π_{t}^{*}) - (1 + i_{M, t}^{*} + â_{k, t}) + \sum_{i = 1}^{3} χ_{i} [(1 + ε_{i} g_{t}^{*} + η_{i} {\hat{θ}}_{x, i, t - 1}) (1 + π_{x, i, t}^{*})] + γ_{t} - \sum_{i = 1}^{3} μ_{i} [(1 - ψ_{i} {\hat{θ}}_{m, i, t - 1}) (1 + π_{m, i, t}^{*})]}{\sum_{n = 1}^{3} μ_{i} ξ_{i} (1 + π_{m, i, t}^{*})}

π_{1} = P_{0, 1} (\hat{1 + t_{1}}) + P_{1, 1} {\hat{z}}_{1} + P_{2, 1} ({\hat{W}}_{1} - {\hat{a}}_{0, 1}) + P_{3, 1} (π_{2} - {\hat{a}}_{2, 1}) + P_{4, 1} (π_{3} - {\hat{a}}_{3, 1}) + P_{5, 1} (π_{1} - {\hat{a}}_{1, 1}) + P_{6, 1} ({\hat{e}}_{t} + π_{m, 1}^{*} - {\hat{a}}_{m, 1})

π_{2} = P_{0, 2} (\hat{1 + t_{2}}) + P_{1, 2} {\hat{z}}_{2} + P_{2, 2} ({\hat{W}}_{2} - {\hat{a}}_{0, 2}) + P_{3, 2} (π_{1} - {\hat{a}}_{1, 2}) + P_{4, 2} (π_{3} - {\hat{a}}_{3, 2}) + P_{5, 2} (π_{2} - {\hat{a}}_{2, 2}) + P_{6, 2} ({\hat{e}}_{t} + π_{m, 2}^{*} - {\hat{a}}_{m, 2})

π_{3} = P_{0, 3} (\hat{1 + t_{3}}) + P_{1, 3} {\hat{z}}_{3} + P_{2, 3} ({\hat{W}}_{3} - {\hat{a}}_{0, 3}) + P_{3, 3} (π_{1} - {\hat{a}}_{1, 3}) + P_{4, 3} (π_{2} - {\hat{a}}_{2, 3}) + P_{5, 3} (π_{3} - {\hat{a}}_{3, 3}) + P_{6, 3} ({\hat{e}}_{t} + π_{m, 3}^{*} - {\hat{a}}_{m, 3})

\hat{g_{0, t}} = {{1 + g_{B P} - [1 + g_{1, 1} g_{B P} + g_{2, 1} {(π_{1} - π_{2})}_{t - 1} + g_{3, 1} {(π_{1} - π_{3})}_{t - 1}] P_{1, t - 1} - [1 + g_{1, 2} g_{B P} + g_{2, 2} {(π_{1} - π_{2})}_{t - 1} + g_{3, 2} {(π_{2} - π_{3})}_{t - 1}] P_{2, t - 1} - [1 + g_{1, 2} g_{B P} + g_{2, 2} {(π_{1} - π_{2})}_{t - 1} + g_{3, 2} {(π_{2} - π_{3})}_{t - 1}] P_{3, t - 1}} / (P_{1, t - 1} g_{0, 1, t - 1} + P_{2, t - 1} g_{0, 2, t - 1} + P_{3, t - 1} g_{0, 3, t - 1})} - 1

[1] Correspondência para: Cryslãine Flavia da Silva Rodrigues Contato: crys-cg@hotmail.com

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A CASE FOR INDUSTRIAL POLICY? FORECAST RESULTS FROM A DISAGGREGATED BOP-CONSTRAINED GROWTH MODEL FOR BRAZILIAN ECONOMY (2016-2025)

UM CASO PARA POLÍTICA INDUSTRIAL? RESULTADOS DE PREVISÕES PARA A ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA (2016-2025) A PARTIR DE UM MODELO DESAGREGADO DE CRESCIMENTO RESTRINGIDO PELO BP

ABSTRACT