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Interest rate and the risk premium: Bresser-Nakano's hypothesis in the brazilian economy, 1995-2005

The Bresser-Nakano's proposal raised a wide discussion on the monetary policy in Brazil and several critiques were brought about as well as contributions for its improvement. Their main argument is based upon a causality relation that runs from interest rate to risk premium with a positive correlation. In this case a cut in the interest rate shifts down the risk premium, and could even reduce the price inflation by the exchange rate. This assumption is linked to others issues in financial integration in an open economy context. The traditional view is that the interest rate is determined by the interest rate parity condition and that the monetary authority has no autonomy to set different rates from those determined by the "capital's flows". An alternative approach defends that is possible to peg with wide autonomy the domestic interest rate, even in this context. The results endorse Bresser-Nakano's proposal and suggest it could be feasible for Brazilian real situation.

financial integration; interest rate; risk premium


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