Exchange rate as economic development device

Mattei, Lauro; Scaramuzzi, Thaís

doi:10.1590/0101-31572016v36n04a04

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Brasil

Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

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Articles • Rev. Econ. Polit. 36 (4) • Oct-Dec 2016 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572016v36n04a04 copy

Exchange rate as economic development device

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

This article discusses the importance of the exchange rate in the economic development process. After a brief discussion about this issue, the paper presents a historical vision of the exchange policy adopted in Brazil from 1995 until now. This policy took part in the stabilization macroeconomic program implemented in the country since then. Thus, we are discussing the main effects of the economic exchange policy over the industrial sector, highlighting the fact that there are some empirical evidences about the deindustrialization process in Brazil nowadays. What could explain it is the behavior of the share of technological content of the products that compose the international trade of the country. Recently one can observe that there is an expressive growth in the share of the non-industrial products, which could characterize the deindustrialization process in the country.

KEYWORDS:
Political economy; exchange rate; deindustrialization

Ano	Indústria de alta e média-alta tecnologia (I+II)		Indústria de baixa e média-baixa tecnologia (III+VI)		Produtos não industriais
	Exportações	Importações	Exportações	Importações	Exportações	Importações
1996	27,1%	58,2%	56,5%	26,2%	16,4%	15,6%
1997	29,7%	62,4%	50,7%	25,2%	19,6%	12,3%
1998	31,7%	64,8%	48,9%	24,6%	19,4%	10,6%
1999	31,2%	66,2%	50,6%	22,7%	18,2%	11,1%
2000	35,6%	63,8%	47,9%	24,2%	16,6%	12,0%
2001	33,1%	66,3%	48,9%	22,2%	18,0%	11,5%
2002	31,3%	64,2%	49,3%	21,9%	19,4%	14,0%
2003	29,9%	62,9%	50,2%	20,9%	19,9%	16,1%
2004	30,0%	61,9%	50,0%	20,3%	20,0%	17,8%
2005	31,8%	61,9%	47,6%	20,7%	20,5%	17,4%
2006	30,4%	59,7%	47,7%	22,5%	21,9%	17,8%
2007	29,1%	59,6%	46,8%	23,2%	24,1%	17,1%
2008	26,1%	59,3%	45,6%	23,4%	28,3%	17,3%
2009	23,7%	63,6%	44,7%	22,5%	31,6%	13,9%
2010	22,6%	61,2%	41,0%	26,4%	36,4%	12,4%
2011	20,4%	59,5%	39,4%	27,4%	40,2%	13,2%
2012	20,9%	60,2%	40,7%	27,0%	38,4%	12,8%
2013	20,5%	59,5%	41,9%	26,3%	37,6%	14,2%

		Alta tecnologia	Baixa tecnologia	Não Industriais
Exportações	β^1	n/a	0,3815	0,3557
	β^2	0,2676	0,1239	-0,0165
	β^3	-0,3434	0,1071	0,1432
	pvalor	5,1E-07	3,2E-04	4,4E-02
	R2	0,8326	0,6579	0,3378
Importações	β^1	*	0,3056	*
	β^2	*	-0,0455	*
	β^3	*	0,0915	*
	pvalor	*	2,5E-07	*
	R2	*	0,8676	*

Centro de Economia Política Rua Araripina, 106, CEP 05603-030 São Paulo - SP, Tel. (55 11) 3816-6053 - São Paulo - SP - Brazil
E-mail: cecilia.heise@bjpe.org.br

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[TFN1] Fonte: MDIC. Elaboração dos autores.