Legalização das drogas e comportamento estratégico

ALBUQUERQUEMELLO, VINÍCIUS PHILLIPE DE; RAMOS, FRANCISCO S.

doi:10.1590/0101-31572021-3117

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Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

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Articles • Brazil. J. Polit. Econ. 41 (3) • 2021 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572021-3117 copiar

Legalização das drogas e comportamento estratégico

Autoria SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

RESUMO

O crescente número de usuários, cerca de 250 milhões, em 2016, e a enorme quantidade de problemas de saúde, que causam 190.000 mortes por ano, são alguns dos dados que reacenderam o debate a respeito da eﬁcácia das políticas proibicionistas ao consumo de drogas, em todo o mundo. Daí, criando um ramo da literatura voltado à investigação dessa temática. Nesse sentido, o presente artigo analisa economicamente os cenários em que não há legalização das drogas e para legalizações parciais (maconha) ou integrais, à luz da Teoria dos Jogos. Assim, consegue, diferentemente de outros estudos, determinar condições de compatibilidade de incentivos para que a economia venha realmente a se formalizar após a descriminalização, evitando contrabandos sob fachada legal. Além disso, consegue apontar qual a situação (equilíbrio de Nash) que propicia o maior bem-estar para a sociedade.

PALAVRAS-CHAVE:
Tráﬁco de drogas; contrabando; legalização; Teoria dos Jogos

Scenario	State	Drug Dealer
I	$τ R_{L} + R_{I L} - C_{s, l, p, j} (R_{I L})$	$(1 - τ) R_{L} - C_{t r a f i c} - C_{a r m} (R_{I L}) - C_{a d v}$
II	$τ R_{L} - C_{s, l, p, j} (R_{I L})$	$(1 - τ) R_{L} + R_{I L} - C_{t r a f i c} - C_{a r m} (R_{I L}) - C_{a d v}$
III	$τ R_{L} - C_{s, l, p, j} (R_{I L})$	$(1 - τ) R_{L}$
IV	$R_{I L} - C_{s, l, p, j} (R_{I L})$	$- C_{c o n t r a b} - C_{a r m} (R_{I L}) - C_{a d v}$
V	$- C_{s, l, p, j} (R_{I L})$	$R_{I L} - C_{t r a f i c} - C_{c o n t r a b} - C_{a r m} (R_{I L})$
VI	$R_{I L} - C_{p} (R_{L})$	$- C_{c o n t r a b} - C_{a r m} (R_{I L}) - C_{a d v}$
VII	$- C_{p} (R_{L})$	$R_{I L} - C_{c o n t r a b} - C_{a r m} (R_{I L})$
VIII	$τ R_{L} - C_{p} (R_{L})$	$(1 - τ) R_{L}$
IX	$R_{I L} - C_{s, l, p, j} (R_{I L})$	$- C_{t r a f i c} - C_{a r m} (R_{I L}) - C_{a d v}$
X	$- C_{s, l, p, j} (R_{L})$	$R_{I L} - C_{t r a f i c} - C_{a r m} (R_{I L})$

		Drug Dealer
		Trafficking	Smuggling	Legal sales + Trafficking	Smuggling + Trafficking	Legal Sales
Government	Partially legalized	-	-	$pV (I) + (1 - p) V (II) pU (I) + (1 - p) U (II)$	$pV (IV) + (1 - p) V (V) pU (IV) + (1 - p) U (V)$	V(III), U(III)
	Fully legalized	-	$pV (VI) + (1 - p) V (VII) pU (VI) + (1 - p) U (VII)$	-	-	V(VIII), U(VIII)
	Not legalized	$pV (IX) + (1 - p) V (X) pU (IX) + (1 - p) U (X)$	-	-	-	-

Nash Equilibrium	Government Payoff
$\{LP, VL\}$	${τR}_{L} - C_{s, l, p, j} (R_{IL})$
$\{LP, VL + T\}$	${τR}_{L} + {pR}_{IL} - C_{s, l, p, j} (R_{IL})$
$\{LP, C + T\}$	${pR}_{IL} - C_{s, l, p, j} (R_{IL})$
$\{LT, C\}$	${pR}_{IL} - C_{p} (R_{L})$
$\{LT, VL\}$	${τR}_{L} - C_{p} (R_{L})$
$\{NL, T\}$	${pR}_{IL} - C_{s, l, p, j} (R_{IL})$

Characteristics	Drug Dealers	Source
Male	83.8%	Bureau of Justice Statistics - BJS (2019)
Female	16.2%	Bureau of Justice Statistics - BJS (2019)
Mean Age	29.38 years	Bureau of Justice Statistics - BJS (2019)
Citizenship
American	74.1%	Bureau of Justice Statistics - BJS (2019)
Foreign	25.95%	Bureau of Justice Statistics - BJS (2019)
Ethnicity
White	22.4%	Bureau of Justice Statistics - BJS (2019)
Black	24.6%	Bureau of Justice Statistics - BJS (2019)
Hispanic	49.8%	Bureau of Justice Statistics - BJS (2019)
Other	3.2%	Bureau of Justice Statistics - BJS (2019)
Schooling
Less than High School	36.6%	National Prisoner Statistics - NPS (2019)National Prisoner Statistics - NPS. 2019. Available at: <Available at: https://www.census.gov/econ/overview/go3000.html >. Acessed on: February 2019. https://www.census.gov/econ/overview/go3...
High School	52.0%	National Prisoner Statistics - NPS (2019)National Prisoner Statistics - NPS. 2019. Available at: <Available at: https://www.census.gov/econ/overview/go3000.html >. Acessed on: February 2019. https://www.census.gov/econ/overview/go3...
University Studies	11.4%	National Prisoner Statistics - NPS (2019)National Prisoner Statistics - NPS. 2019. Available at: <Available at: https://www.census.gov/econ/overview/go3000.html >. Acessed on: February 2019. https://www.census.gov/econ/overview/go3...
Mean time of imprisonment: drug trafficking	73.53 months	Calculated based on data from the United States Sentence Commission - USSC (2019)
Mean time of imprisonment: smuggling	17 months	Calculated based on data from the United States Sentence Commission - USSC (2019)
% of total inmates imprisoned for drug-related crimes	45.9%	Federal Bureau of Prisons - BOP (2019)Federal Bureau of Prisons - BOP. (2019). Available at: <Available at: https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offenses.jsp >. Acessed on: February 2019. https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/sta...

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[TFN1] Source: Prepared by the authors.