Um estudo empírico da poupança privada no Brasil

Este artigo fornece uma análise empírica dos determinantes da poupança privada no Brasil durante 1965-2000. Nossas estimativas indicam que o grau de compensação entre poupança privada e pública é relativamente alto, de acordo com as evidências de outros países latino-americanos, embora possa ter começado a declinar nos últimos anos. De qualquer forma, a política fiscal é identificada como um dos principais instrumentos para promover o tão necessário aumento da poupança nacional no Brasil. O apoio adicional à poupança pode vir de reformas continuadas do mercado financeiro e diversificação do comércio.

PALAVRAS-CHAVE:
Poupança privada; poupança pública; crowding out

Autoria

CLAUDIO PAIVA

Loyola College, Chennai, India.: E-mail: claudiopaiva@fclar.unesp.brLoyola CollegeIndiaChennai, IndiaLoyola College, Chennai, India.: E-mail: claudiopaiva@fclar.unesp.br

SARWAT JAHAN

Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA. E-mail: Sarwat.jahan@imf.orgCornell UniversityUSAIthaca, NY, USACornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA. E-mail: Sarwat.jahan@imf.org

*** We would like to thank Drs. Werner Baer, Roberto Guimarães, and Marco Cavalcanti for valuable discussions on the theme. Any errors are of the responsibility of the authors only.

***
We would like to thank Drs. Werner Baer, Roberto Guimarães, and Marco Cavalcanti for valuable discussions on the theme. Any errors are of the responsibility of the authors only.

SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Loyola College, Chennai, India.: E-mail: claudiopaiva@fclar.unesp.brLoyola CollegeIndiaChennai, IndiaLoyola College, Chennai, India.: E-mail: claudiopaiva@fclar.unesp.br

Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA. E-mail: Sarwat.jahan@imf.orgCornell UniversityUSAIthaca, NY, USACornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA. E-mail: Sarwat.jahan@imf.org

Figuras | Tabelas | Fórmulas

Figuras (8)
Tabelas (4)
Fórmulas (1)

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Figure 1.1a
Brazil: Investment, Savings and Current Account Deficits, 1987-2000

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Figure 1.1b
Brazil: Investment, Savings and Current Account Deficits, 1987-2000

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Figure 1.2a
Brazil: Public and Private Savings, Private Consumption and Government Spending

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Figure 1.2b
Brazil: Public and Private Savings, Private Consumption and Government Spending

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Figure 1.2c
Brazil: Public and Private Savings, Private Consumption and Government S pending

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Figure 1.3
Brazil: S catter Diagram of Private and Public Saving Rate (Inflation Corrected)

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Figure 1.4a
Brazil: Actual and Fitted Private Savings Rate

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Figure 1.4b
Brazil: Actual and Fitted Private Savings Rate

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Table 1.1
Brazil: Brazil’s Saving Rates (period averages in percent of GDP)

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Table 1.2
Brazil: Statistics and Unit Root Test Results

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Table 1.3
Brazil: Long-Run Determinants of Private S aving

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Table 1.4
Brazil: Short-Run Determinants of Private Saving

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Figure 1.1a Brazil: Investment, Savings and Current Account Deficits, 1987-2000

Figure 1.1b Brazil: Investment, Savings and Current Account Deficits, 1987-2000

Source: IBGE and Central Bank of Brazil (BCB)

Figure 1.2a Brazil: Public and Private Savings, Private Consumption and Government Spending

Figure 1.2b Brazil: Public and Private Savings, Private Consumption and Government Spending

Figure 1.2c Brazil: Public and Private Savings, Private Consumption and Government S pending

Source: IBGE and PEA

Figure 1.3 Brazil: S catter Diagram of Private and Public Saving Rate (Inflation Corrected)

Source: IPEA

Figure 1.4a Brazil: Actual and Fitted Private Savings Rate

Figure 1.4b Brazil: Actual and Fitted Private Savings Rate

Table 1.1 Brazil: Brazil’s Saving Rates (period averages in percent of GDP)

	Gross National Saving	Private Saving	Public Saving
1965-69	19.88	17.36	2.51
1970-74	20.20	14.32	5.87
1975-79	20.04	16.82	3.22
1980-84	15.84	13.97	1.87
1985-89	21.16	16.68	4.47
1990-94	20.36	17.10	3.26
1995-00	17.38	21.77	-4.39

Source: IBGE and Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA).

Table 1.2 Brazil: Statistics and Unit Root Test Results

Variable	Mean	Standard deviation	Augmented Dickey-Fuller Statistics
Variable	Mean	Standard deviation	I(0)	I(1)
ratio of private saving to GDP	0.1700	0.0375	-3.32	-5.77*
ratio of public saving to GDP	0.0221	0.0370	-2.22	-5.70*
log of terms of trade	4.6802	0.2138	-2.75	-5.67*
log of per capita GDP	8.1724	0.2760	-1.21	-3.88**
inflation	3.4347	6.8501	-2.66	-6.43*
ratio of M2 to GDP	0.2334	0.0793	-2.08	-6.13*
ratio of urban population to the labor force	1.6563	0.0770	-2.24	-9.82*

Source: IMF and IPEA; * rejection at the 1 percent critical value; ** rejection at the 5 percent critical value Note: critical values are obtained from McKinnon (1991)

Table 1.3 Brazil: Long-Run Determinants of Private S aving

Dependent Variable: private saving/GDP
ratio of public	-0.82**
saving to GDP	(-6.55)
log of terms of trade	0.03* (1.82)
log of per capita GDP	0.07* (1.90)
inflation	0.001* (1.92)
ratio of M2 to GDP	0.15** (2.83)
ratio of urban population	-0.35*
to the labor force	(-2.15)
Engle-Granger co-integration test (Ho : no co-integration):	- 4.6 (reject at 1 percent critical value)
R-squared	0.79
Adjusted R-squared	0.75
D.W.	1.60

t- ratios are given in parenthesis.
** significant at the 1 percent critical value; *significant at the 10 percent critical value.

Table 1.4 Brazil: Short-Run Determinants of Private Saving

Dependent Variable: Dprivate saving/GDP
∆ public saving/GDP	-1.04** (-8.57)
∆ log of per capita GDP	0.13* (1.95)
∆ inflation	0.001* (2.08)
∆ M2/GDP	0.13* (2.03)
∆ ratio of urban population to the labor force	-0.40* (-2.61)
a	-0.75** (-4.2)
R-squared Adjusted R-squared D.W.	0.79 0.76 1.89

t- ratios are given in parenthesis.
** significant at the 1 percent critical value; *significant at the 10 percent critical value.

Δ S_{t}^{P r i v =} θ_{0} + θ_{1} Δ S_{t - 1}^{P r i v} + θ_{2} Δ S_{t - 1}^{P u b} + θ_{3} Δ T o T_{t - 1} + θ_{4} Δ Y_{t - 1} + θ_{5} Δ π_{t - 1} + θ_{6} Δ m_{t - 1} + θ_{7} Δ u r b_{t - 1} α (β_{1} S_{t}^{P r i v} + β_{2} S_{t}^{P u b} + β_{3} T o T_{t} + β_{4} Y_{t} + β_{5} π_{t} + β_{6} m_{t} + β_{7} u r b_{t}) + ε_{t}

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Um estudo empírico da poupança privada no Brasil

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[1] ***
We would like to thank Drs. Werner Baer, Roberto Guimarães, and Marco Cavalcanti for valuable discussions on the theme. Any errors are of the responsibility of the authors only.