Cervical cancer mortality in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, 1996-2010: time trends and projections up to 2030

OBJECTIVE:  to analyze cervical cancer mortality trends in the state of Rio Grande do Norte and its health micro-regions from 1996 to 2010, as well as to make projections for five-year periods from 2011 to 2030.

METHODS:  this was an ecological time series study; negative binomial regression was used to analyze trends and projections.

RESULTS:  rates above 5.0 deaths per 100,000 women were observed in all the micro-regions, with a stationary trend in the state as a whole and an upward trend in the micro-regions with the worst socioeconomic conditions; projections indicated reduction in mortality rates in the state, from 5.95/100,000 women (2006-2010) to 3.67 (2026-2030), although a 22% increase in the absolute number of deaths is expected.

CONCLUSION:  although a reduction in mortality rates is projected, they continue to be high, indicating the need for review and strengthening of the state's cervical cancer control program.

Key words:
Mortality; Uterine Cervical Neoplasms; Temporal Distribution; Negative Binomial Distribution