Magnitude and temporal trend of leprosy indicators in Goiás, Brazil: an ecological study 2001-2017

An ecological time series study was conducted. Leprosy morbidity and operational indicators were calculated using Notifiable Health Conditions Information System data. Prais-Winsten regression was used for trend analysis.

Results:

There was a falling trend in the detection rate in the general population (Annual Percent Change [APC] = -6.8 – 95%CI -8.2;-5.4) and in children under 15 years old (APC = -7.2 – 95%CI -8.5;-5.9); a rising trend in the proportion of grade 2 disability (APC = 3.7 – 95%CI 2.0;5.3) and in the proportion of examined physical disability (APC = 0.6 – 95%CI 0.3;0.8); healing and examined contacts proportions were stable.

Conclusion:

Detection rates decreased while the proportions of grade 2 physical disability and examined physical disability increased.

Keywords:
Leprosy; Time Series Studies; Ecological Studies; Health Status Indicators

Indicators		R²^a a) R2: coefficient of determination.	APC^b b) APC: annual percent change.	95%IC^c c) 95%CI: 95% confidence interval.	p-value	Trend
Morbidity
	Detection rate in the general population	0.836	-6.8	-8.2;-5.4	<0.001	Falling
	Detection rate in the population <15 years old	0.904	-7.2	-8.5;-5.9	<0.001	Falling
	Proportion of grade 2 physical disability	0.617	3.7	2.0;5.3	<0.001	Rising
Operational
	Proportion of cure	0.808	1.1	-0.6;2.7	0.178	Stable
	Proportion of contacts examined	0.131	4.9	-2.2;12.5	0.156	Stable
	Proportion of physical disability examined	0.981	0.6	0.3;0.8	0.001	Rising

Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde e Ambiente - Ministério da Saúde do Brasil SRTVN Quadra 701, Via W5 Norte, Lote D, Edifício P0700, CEP: 70719-040, +55 61 3315-3464, Fax: +55 61 3315-3464 - Brasília - DF - Brazil
E-mail: ress.svs@gmail.com

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[1] Correspondence: Rafael Alves Guimarães – Universidade Federal de Goiás, Faculdade de Enfermagem, Rua 227, Quadra 68, s/n, Setor Leste Universitário, Goiânia, GO, Brazil. Postcode: 74605-080. E-mail: rafaelalvesg5@gmail.com