HIV prevalence among persons deprived of liberty in Brazil, 2017-2023: a time series analysis

Nogueira, Maria Rayssa do Nascimento; Braga, Hévila Ferreira Gomes Medeiros; Sousa, Vitória Talya dos Santos; Maciel, Nathanael de Souza; Melo, Emanuella Silva Joventino; Vasconcelos, Patrícia Freire de; Sousa, Leilane Barbosa de

doi:10.1590/S2237-96222025v34e20240493.en

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ORIGINAL ARTICLE • Epidemiol. Serv. Saúde 34 • 2025 • https://doi.org/10.1590/S2237-96222025v34e20240493.en linkcopy

This document is related to:

10.1590/S2237-96222025v34e20240493.a

This document is related to:

10.1590/S2237-96222025v34e20240493.b

HIV prevalence among persons deprived of liberty in Brazil, 2017-2023: a time series analysis

Prevalencia del VIH entre personas privadas de libertad en Brasil, 2017-2023: análisis de series de tiempo

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Objective To analyze the temporal trend of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) prevalence in the population deprived of liberty, in Brazil, between the years 2017 and 2023.

Methods Time series analysis evaluation, from 2017 to 2023. The number of persons deprived of liberty and the number of HIV cases were collected from the. National Penitentiary Department Information System. In addition, sociodemographic variables were collected from each federative unit on the Atlas Brasil website concerning the National Household Sampling Survey (2021). Joinpoint software was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) through regressions. The relationship between HIV prevalence and indicators was analyzed in GeoDa 1.22.0.4.

Results The national prevalence of HIV in persons deprived of liberty was 10.84 cases per 1,000 inmates, with an increasing trend (APC 0.3; 95%CI 0.1;0.6). This rate was higher among women (23.64/1,000 inmates), however, it showed a decreasing trend (APC 0.7; 95%CI -1.2;-0.2). However, although being lower among men (10.15/1,000 inmates), the trend in this group was increasing (APC 0.5; 95%CI 0.2;0.8). As for region, the highest prevalence was in the South (15.12/1,000 inmates). Aging rate (p-value 0.014), per capita household income (p-value 0.021) and municipal human development Index (MHDI) adjusted for income (p-value 0.024) showed positive associations.

Conclusion Nationally, the prevalence was higher among women. However, while the prevalence among men showed an increasing trend, a reduction was observed among women over the period analyzed.

Keywords
HIV; Persons Deprived of Liberty; Health Information Systems; Prevalence; Time Series Analysis

Location	APC (95%CI)	p-value	Trend
Brazil	0.3 (0.1;0.6)	0.024	Growing
Male	0.5 (0.2;0.8)	0.006	Growing
Female	-0.7 (-1.2;-0.2)	0.006	Decreasing
North	0.6 (-0.3;1.5)	0.173	Stationary
Male^a	0.6 (-0.3;1.5)	0.168	Stationary
Female	-0.4 (-2.7;2.0)	0.752	Stationary
Northeast	0.5 (-0.2;1.1)	0.135	Stationary
Male	0.5 (-0.2;1.1)	0.174	Stationary
Female	-0.8 (-1.3;-0.3)	0.003	Decreasing
Southeast	0.5 (0.2;0.8)	0.004	Growing
Male	0.7 (0.3;1.0)	0.001	Growing
Female	-0.5 (-1.3;0.2)	0.150	Stationary
Midwest	0.1 (-0.6;0.8)	0.774	Stationary
Male	0.0 (-0.6;0.7)	0.944	Stationary
Female	0.2 (-1.0;1.5)	0.691	Stationary
South	0.0 (-0.7;0.8)	0.956	Stationary
Male	0,3 (-0.4;1.1)	0.381	Stationary
Female^b	-1.4 (-3.0;0.2)	0.073	Stationary

Location	APC (95%CI)	p-value	Trend
North
Acre	-0.5 (-2.4;1.5)	0.605	Stationary
Amapá	2.0 (-1.3;5.4)	0.224	Stationary
Amazonas	1.1 (-0.3;2.6)	0.102	Stationary
Pará	1.5 (0.7;2.2)	0.001	Growing
Rondônia	1.3 (0.4;2.3)	0.008	Growing
Roraima	1.1 (0.4;1.8)	0.005	Growing
Tocantins	0.7 (0.2;1.3)	0.009	Growing
Northeast
Alagoas	0.4 (-0.6;1.4)	0.383	Stationary
Bahia	0.9 (-0.1;1.9)	0.081	Stationary
Ceara^a	0.8 (-1.1;2.7)	0.380	Stationary
Maranhão^b	1.9 (1.0;2.8)	0.002	Growing
Paraíba	-0.9 (-2.1;0.3)	0.126	Stationary
Pernambuco	-1.1 (-1.8;-0.3)	0.007	Decreasing
Piauí	-0.2 (-1.2;0.7)	0.631	Stationary
Rio Grande do Norte	1.7 (1.1;2.3)	0.001	Growing
Sergipe	0.7 (-0.2;1.6)	0.116	Stationary
Southeast
Espírito Santo	0.1 (-1.0;1.30)	0.830	Stationary
Minas Gerais^c	-0.8 (-4.0;2.5)	0.600	Stationary
Rio de Janeiro	3.2 (2.2;4.2)	0.001	Growing
São Paulo	-0.0 (-0.2;0.2)	0.970	Stationary
South
Paraná	-1.4 (-2.2;-0.5)	0.005	Decreasing
Rio Grande do Sul	1.2 (-0.5;2.9)	0.141	Stationary
Santa Catarina	0.2 (-0.3;0.7)	0.419	Stationary
Midwest
Distrito Federal	-0.2 (-1.4;1.1)	0.761	Stationary
Goiás	0.1 (-1.4;1.6)	0.864	Stationary
Mato Grosso	-0.5 (-0.9;0.0)	0.054	Stationary
Mato Grosso do Sul	0.5 (-0.4;1.5)	0.258	Stationary

Socioeconomic indicators	Coefficient	Error	p-value
Municipal human development index	-186.67	77.76	0.027
Aging rate	1.28	0.47	0.014
Percentage of people vulnerable to poverty	0.74	0.36	0.056
Per capita income	0.02	0.01	0.021
Illiteracy rate^a	-0.60	0.26	0.035
Inequality-adjusted income	143.92	58.45	0.024

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Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde e Ambiente - Ministério da Saúde do Brasil SRTVN Quadra 701, Via W5 Norte, Lote D, Edifício P0700, CEP: 70719-040, +55 (61) 3315-3464 - Brasília - DF - Brazil
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[fnte1] ^aData on HIV cases in men in the North in 2021.1 were excluded, as a discrepant value (outlier) was found; ^bData on HIV cases in women in the South in 2018.2 were excluded, as a discrepant value (outlier) was found.