Between discontent and mobilization: factors influencing protest participation in Colombia before and during the pandemic

ABSTRACT

Introduction:  Colombia is frequently regarded as one of Latin America's most stable democracies, despite its protracted history of internal armed conflict. However, the protest waves that broke out in 2019 and resurfaced in 2021 - both marked by significant state repression - have cast doubt on this perception. This article explores the factors that shaped participation in these recent mobilizations, aiming to shed light on the underlying motivations for collective action in the Colombian context.

Materials and methods:  This study adopts a quantitative approach, drawing on data from the AmericasBarometer surveys conducted in 2018, 2020, and 2021, supplemented by contextual analyses. The model incorporates individual, social, and political variables, with particular emphasis to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the declining popularity of President Iván Duque's administration.

Results:  Protest participation shows strong correlations with negative assessments of the government, political engagement, and identification with the Colombia Humana party. No significant associations were found with democratic disaffection, interpersonal trust, or religiosity. Protesters were predominantly young, male, college-educated, left-leaning, and politically active.

Discussion:  The 2019 and 2021 protests should not be interpreted as a rejection of democracy itself, but rather as a targeted challenge to the sitting government. Our findings underscore the need for multi-causal explanations in collective action, integrating social network theory, rational choice, and political opportunity structures. Accordingly, we propose a meso-level approach that emphasizes the role of organized social capital over purely individualistic or structuralist interpretations.

Keywords
political protests; social mobilization; social capital; political engagement; Colombia