OBJECTIVE: To test the predictive validity of the Probability of Repeated Hospital Admissions questionnaire among older adults. METHODS: A population-based cohort study with a 6-month follow-up was implemented with 515 non-institutionalized older people (>60 years) cared for by the Family Health Strategy in the city of Progresso, Southern Brazil, in 2005. Participants answered eight objective questions that were entered in a logistic regression model to estimate the risk of future hospital admission, by risk strata. Survival analysis and the receiver operating characteristics curve were utilized to assess instrument validity. RESULTS: Among participants, 56.1% were women and 10.1% were hospitalized. The high-risk group had a 6.5 times greater frequency of hospitalization in comparison to the low-risk category. CONCLUSIONS: The instrument is effective in assessing the risk of hospitalization among older adults attended by the Family Health Program of the National Unified Health Care System.
Aged; Risk Factors; Hospitalization; Family Health Program; Validation Studies
