Model for ex-ante analysis of city logistics policies based on urban distribution centers: an approach using system dynamics

Abstract

The increase in the number of freight vehicles in urban areas generates several negative externalities from the financial, environmental and economic perspectives, and the formulation of public policies that optimize urban logistics has gained importance in the agenda of public managers. Thus, this paper purposes a model to support the formulation of public policies focused on urban logistics, with emphasis on Urban Distribution Centers (UDCs). The method used is mathematical simulation based on System Dynamics and incorporates elements of inventory management and operations management. This paper presents the model and the proposed procedure for its application in two hypothetical cities, and compares the adoption of UDCs with other policies. The results, measured by total logistics costs and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions indicate that the restrictions tend to negatively impact both indicators. On the other hand, UDCs are robust solutions that can reduce both costs and emissions and outperform other policies in the case of cities that have reached critical congestion levels. The replicability of the model is discussed.

Keywords:
Urban logistics; Urban Distribution Centers; System dynamics; Public policies; City logistics