Predicting the future of sports organizations

The current crisis of sport in Serbia justifies its prediction of real potential future of sport organizations. Sample of respondents (N=277) was divided in two subsamples: 113 professional persons involved in the management of sports clubs (“experimental” sample) and 164 individuals (“control” sample). The results of structural analysis showed that experimental sample based its vision on the staff as a determinant of the system, which is providing creativity as a characteristic of the organizational culture of the club. Control subsample of respondents could indicate some characteristic variables to predict the future of clubs, but can’t say a clear prediction system based on a long sequence of reasoning. We can conclude that the mentioned two sub-samples are differerent in terms of the ability to orient to predict the future of their clubs on the basis of assessment of the key variables that shape the future scenarios.


Introduction
The management of contemporary sports organizations is faced with the problem of rapid changes and complexity of the environment in which they operate.From such global socio-economic processes characterized by globalization, new approaches emerged in relation with conceiving the future.Several scholars (Bishop, Hines, & Collins, 2007;Morrison, & Wilson, 1997;Schoemaker, 1991;Willmore, 2001;Wilson, 1995) indicate possible scenarios that provide a comprehensive, internally consistent, long-term view of the future as a framework for strategic thinking, as well as scanning and monitoring of activities.
Computerized tools appropriate for systematic defining and testing of research hypotheses (Bar-Yam, 2003, 2008a;2008b) largely contributed to this.With increasing importance of strategic management, prediction function is also becoming more important-within planning function or as a separate management function (Maksimovic & Raic, 2012;Rui, Jie, Xiaobing, Dongdong, & Xiaoming, 2011).In the basis of a long-term strategic planning there is a problem of predicting alternative futures."Predicting, as an activity that provides an estimate of the probability of events to happen, enables understanding of the consequences for business and development plans" (Lekovic, 1995).Key point of strategic management relates to the preparation of top management to deal with critical uncertainties brought by the future.Scenario planning is a process that puts these matters into real framework, that is, enables "discovering or finding, reviewing and evaluation, recommending and promotion of possible, probable and desirable futures" (Ratcliffe, 2003).The need for formulating a national strategy of the development of sport in Serbia (especially in Vojvodina, which is a highly-developed region with regard sport activities) justifies both research efforts to summarize and apply methodological knowledge on research of future of sports, and experiments in the field of scientific establishing and practical monitoring of actual and preferred strategies of sustainable development of sports in the real circumstances of local communities and their European environment.
The aim of this study is delimited by research question: Is there a correlation between the presence of systematic opinions of the subjects engaged in management of sports organization and predictions of its future development derived from such opinions, and the creation and implementation of the sports organization development strategy?

Method
We have used the Godet's structural analysis computer program (Godet, 1987(Godet, , 2006) ) that contains elements of computer simulation (especially detailed ranking of scenarios according to their probability).According to Godet's approach to planning the future, the system of predicting the future of sports clubs is described by a set of two domains (vision of the future of the club, and the future club development factors) and ten variables.These variables are the following: Preferred level of competition, Desirable future success in the competition, Preferred type of sport for the club in the future, Preferred ownership status of the club in the future, Organization structure, Culture, Resources, Local environment, European environment and Globalization.Each variable contains sub-variables used for measuring the value of each variable.
By its methodological approach research performed can be characterized as a survey research, which has the character of quasi-experimental research (Trochim, & Donnelly, 2006).Given that respondents were not previously prepared for this analytical procedure, the survey has allowed gaining insight into the presence of elements of the systematic and strategic thinking among the respondents.
The objective of this research is supported by employing a survey in a sample of respondents from the circle of professionals involved in the management of sports-clubs (as a basic "experimental" sample) and individuals (students of the Faculty of Sport and Physical Education in Novi Sad, as a "control" sample).These respondents, although inexperienced, were oriented towards future professional activities related to sports.The final size of the sample, selected in the manner described, in this case amounts to 277 subjects.Out of total number of respondents, 113 were sports experts (management) and 164 athletes.Especially, it should be noted that 220 respondents were students of 3 rd and 4 th year of the Faculty of Sport and Physical Education in Novi Sad.The selection of athletes, sports managers and students of the Faculty is performed according to the existing lists based on a table of random numbers.This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the University of Novi Sad (approval number 3/2014 on March 5, 2014).

Characteristics of sports clubs
The population of sports organizations that provides the sample consists of all sports associations in Vojvodina and organizations institutionally included by them (119 clubs from 29 sports branches, one (athletic) sports association and one sports institute -Sports Institute of Vojvodina).Within each of the identified sports organization-club, surveys were supposed to include representatives of management (president, secretary, mid-level managers -marketing managers, finance and so on, as well as representative of the coaching staff and the leaders of the senior squads -a total of 5 to 10 participants).A list of respondents regarding sports shows that four commercial mass sports (football, basketball, volleyball and handball) are responsible for 66.71 %, and all other sports for 33.29 %, of the respondents in the sample.However, given the primary intention of this study, it is reasonable to differentiate new sports from traditional, long time practiced sports in Vojvodina.In order to analyze the connection between types of sports, a two-dimensional variable "Sports Type" (TIPS) was constructed.A typology of sports comprised of four categories of sports was created (TIPS variable): 1 -Traditional non-commercial (21.1 %), 2 -Traditional commercial (72.1 %), 3 -New non-commercial (5.8 %) and 4 -New commercial sports (1.0 %).From this insight into the distribution of respondents by type of sport, it was concluded that recoding of TIPS variable is justified (compression of categories 3 and 4 into a single category 3 -Modern sports) resulting in a variable TIPS3.
As a result of creating variables on strategies, variable Type of strategy was created, which, based on the five categories of clubs, enables their analysis from the standpoint of strategies character: 1) no strategy -not taking activities, expecting the crisis to finish; 2) survival -commercialization: no change, waiting for better days to find a solution for current financial problems in the commercial recreational programs (with an effort to commercially exploit the existing potential of sports -junior and senior squad); 3) survival -development: no changes, waiting for better days with an effort to preserve the sporting potential -junior and senior squad (without resorting  1. Key variables identified based on the analysis of meaningful core of the system. Figure 1.Experimental sample of respondents -direct influence.to the introduction of commercial programs); 4) development -short-term: focusing the activities on the senior squad with expectation of rapid effects in the short term; 5) development -long-term: focusing the activities on junior squad with the expectation of long-term effects.Based on this multi-dimensional variable and by its recoding we obtained Binomial yes/ no (0/1) variable, which classifies the clubs to those with or without development strategy.
Figure 2. Control sample of respondents -direct influence.The first step in preparing the matrix is derived by calculating the Lambda indicator of asymmetric test which determines the direction of relations between two variables (Lambda indicator which with a higher percentage reduces the likelihood of error of reasoning regarding the direction of the connection between the X variable as an independent and Y variable as a dependent variable).Obtained Lambda indicators were entered into two tables in order to explore two sub-samples of respondents.The next step required the conversion of Lambda indicators table into the matrix of Godet's indicators of the degree of correlation between variables (0 no correlation, 1 weak correlation, 2 moderate and 3 strong correlation).The conversion assumed linear relationship between Lambda indicators and Godet's indicators of the degree of correlation between variables (relationship impact/ dependence).After entering an adequate number of converted indicators it was shown that there is a statistical justification for this kind of conversion of indicators.Lambda test converted into Godet's scale: .00 to .25 -little, if any correlation; .26 to .49-low correlation; .50 to .69 -moderate correlation; .70 to .89-high correlation and .90 to 1.00 -very high correlation.
The result of the reliability test for such a conversion (R 2 = .835)justified the accepted method of preparing the matrix for structural analysis.

Results
Understanding the concepts and methods of predicting the future is based on the scenario method, developed by M. Godet (French "la prospective" concept) and here less consulted, the narrower concept of morphological analysis by Richy (Swedish School).The number of variables identified by previous procedure of MICMAC structural analysis is greater than the number that allows the system of prediction of future to be interpreted in a rational way (10 to 15 variables).This outcome of reducing the number of variables requires further analysis and elimination of variables not contributing to the understanding of the operations of the system of predicting clubs future.
Insight into characteristics of the relations between variables on the graph of direct impact of variables for the experimental creation of the real picture about the nature of relationships between variables but do not provide a reliable basis for insight into how respondents approach predicting the future of sports clubs.Introduction of the analysis of the chart of indirect influences of variables (Figure 3 and Figure 4), gives reliable support for identifying key variables but, at the same time, makes the identification difficult due to displaying of all relations of various strengths, in the system of variables.Bearing in mind that the purpose of identifying key variables is obtaining the reduced number of variables, in this procedure the analysis relies on biggest strength relations and relatively strong influences.The purpose of this analysis was to detect meaningful core of the system, which could be interpreted as a simplified system or clubs future prediction model.
Based on results for experimental (Figure 3) and control group (Figure 4) we extracted statistical significant relations which are presented in Table 2 and Table 3:  sample (Figure 1) reveals the existence of two isolated variables (Desirable future success in the competition -the top of the table and Preferred type of sport for the club in the future -Professional) and one determinant (Resources -Finance).
Other variables have at least one feedback, which makes the whole system unstable and hard to predict.There is no paths of unidirectional dependent variables clearly associated with the strongest influences shown here (indicator of the influence level 3), in this system.At control group level (Figure 2) we isolated three variables (Preferred level of competition in the future -municipal, zonal, provincial), two determinants (Preferred ownership status of the club in the future -Association of citizens, and Finance) and two result variables (Preferred level of competition in the future -Zonal, Local environment -Economy).
A series of feedbacks makes this whole system unstable and unreliable in predicting the future of clubs.Both systems based only on direct effects of variables can contribute to the
Table 2. Experimental sample -Meaningful core of the system -statistical significant correlations based on Figure 3.

Facilities--> Integration into European Union Top of the table --> Economy Finance--> Economy --> Integration into European Union Finance --> Creativity --> Integration into European Union
Facilities --> Creativity Economy <--> Creativity Personnel <--> Creativity --> Integration into European Union Organization structure --> Creativity Top of the table --> Creativity Organization structure --> Integration into European Union Table 3.Control sample -with no experience in management of sports clubs, but oriented towards a professional career in sports -statistical significant correlations based on Figure 4.

Discussion
The results of the analysis of the chart of indirect impacts (Figure 3 and Figure 4) of variables are meaningful cores of the system of sports clubs future prediction by two samples of respondents in this study.The analysis of the system of indirect impact of variables for experimental sample of respondents shows that these respondents, based on ten key variables, predict that the result of the realization of their visions of future will be transition of clubs towards recreational, commercial type of sport.The basic sequence of this prediction starts from the staff as a determinant of the system, which provide creativity as a characteristic of the organizational culture of the club.The main mediating relay variable in this prediction sequence is Science, Information technology -Knowledge society, which inspires a shared vision and values as a feature of organizational culture of the club (these two variables are mutually reinforcing each other in the form of feedback) which leads to said result-a recreational commercial sport as a backbone of the future of the club.
Relying of prediction on the society of knowledge and application of science, respondents associate with achieving highly competitive results (probably assuming the existence of adequate competitive team in the club oriented toward recreational and commercial basic programs).Respondents also relate establishing of a culture of creativity in the club with supportive interpersonal relationships and favorable economic local environment of their clubs.For the control subsample of respondents, some characteristic variables could be indicated as predictors of the future of clubs but cannot determine a clear prediction system based on a long sequence of reasoning.The major feature here is the European integration as the expected environment for the future development of sports and clubs.Creativity, as a feature of organizational culture of clubs, here also is the main relay variable.The second relay variable is the economic condition of the local environment.Determinants of this prediction system are primarily finance, personnel, buildings (sports facilities) and clubs' resources.Also, organization, as a frame of the club structure, emerges as determinant.Achieving superior competitive success (top of the table) is perceived by these respondents as a motive for creativity and the chance to use the economic benefits from the club's local environment.By incremental identification procedure described above, a sample was obtained, made of ten key variables for each sample of respondents.Analytical procedure and interpretation of prediction function can rely on these variables in relation with the long term perspective of sports clubs development.
This research is oriented towards the practice of strategic management in sports organizations (clubs) in Vojvodina.It revealed "a storm of ideas" about the paths of our sport in the future, which grows in these organizations.This research also discovered, a lagging, difficult to understand lack of interest of sports infrastructure (branch associations, local administration) in creation of organizational culture in our sports, which supports creativity in the field of convergence of visions of the sports future and their democratic way of articulation through scenario planning and developing strategies for sustainable development of sport in the European environment.
Responses to these questions can be obtained by using analytical techniques (Porter, 1985), but strategic approach to the future of the organization remains a key vision, and response to the question "What we want our organization to be in five or ten years?"It is a cornerstone of predicting the future of sports organizations (Wilson, 1996).Therefore, in order to encourage and maintain the utopian imagination and mood of participants, in relation with vision for the future, some questions need to be answered: "What are the major obstacles in achieving our vision?""How are we going to deal with these obstacles," "What should our strategy be for overcoming obstacles?"About the importance of these issues, Wilson (1997) concludes: "This way we will recapture process of planning by professionals, make it more democratic, and we'll put primacy on the creative and imaginative thinking, and not on the pro forma planning documents." At the same time, knowledge of the existence of decades-long successful implementation of scenario planning methods-not as a bureaucratic "planning" intended for narrow apparatus of experts in the ministries and departments of the local administrations, but as a process of mobilization and holding "of a course" regarding realizing the visions of the future of the democratic base of sports-encourages critical approach towards the sluggishness of development of our sport.Without accepting scientific approaches for predicting the future of sport within broader visions, scenarios and strategies of development of the European (and global) environment, above mentioned "storm of ideas" can start criticism without real effects, without setting and socialization of achievable strategies for survival and development of sports organizations.Without intertwining of scientific approaches towards the future and the broad democratic practice of sports reforms, one cannot expect a turnaround from stagnation and decay of state-regulated sports structure towards the sports directed by private investors, so-called sponsors, private patrons and commercially motivated partnerships, expected by majority of sports activists.Achieving this turnaround assumes changed attitude towards strategic management, particularly its function of predicting the future, primarily in the very basic sports organizations.It seems that sports upgrading (associations) is lagging behind, and that we cannot expect the management to start desirable initiatives "from above to below" in the field of strategic management.
The above suggestion is closely related to knowledge about how to treat strategic, "futuristic" aspect in sports management research in Serbia.In the international science of sport management, this aspect has become the subject of extensive scientific research since the nineties.In our country it is still in its infancy.Regarding our science of strategic management in sports, open issues and topics for further research can be indicated.From the conclusions of this paper several questions can be derived: How to provide reliable information on strategic management as a component of the overall management of sports clubs?How to promote the practice of planning in sport organizations into the process of predicting the future, as a democratic process of creating a shared vision, revealing variables of desirable scenarios and choosing those which enable strategy of sustainable development of the organization?Finally, it is important to question the role of the institutional reform of sports, as well as scientific-research institutions in getting closer to the practice of sports management in the world of verified and successfully used methods of scenario planning and other methods and techniques for predicting the future?