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Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo)

Print version ISSN 0101-4161

Estud. Econ. vol.33 no.3 São Paulo July/Sept. 2003

http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0101-41612003000300002 

Fatores determinantes e evolução da economia submersa no Brasil

 

 

Roberto Name RibeiroI; Mirta Noemi Sataka BugarinII

IReceita Federal, Ministério da Fazenda
IIDepartamento de Economia, Universidade de Brasília

 

 


RESUMO

O presente estudo visa determinar os principais fatores econômicos que estimulam a atividade econômica submersa do Brasil e analisar a sua evolução durante o período 1994-1999. A metodologia consiste na utilização do modelo MIMIC, ou de múltiplas causas e múltiplos indicadores, desenvolvido por Joreskog e Goldberger (1975) e estimado mediante o LISREL de Joreskog e Sorbon (1993). Depreende-se da análise, primeiro, que a carga tributária, o grau de regulamentação da economia e a taxa de desemprego atuam como fortes fatores determinantes da atividade subterrânea no País e, segundo, que a evolução do índice da economia submersa, estimado pelo modelo, apresenta um nítido crescimento durante o período de análise.

Palavras-chave: economia submersa, índice da economia submersa, modelo múltiplas causas múltiplos indicadores.


ABSTRACT

The present study aims to determine the main economic factors acting as the driving force of the Brazilian informal economic activity and analyze its evolution during the period 1994-1999. To this end, the MIMIC (multiple indexes multiple indirect causes) model developed by Joreskog e Goldberger (1975) is estimated using the Joreskog e Sorbon (1993)' s LISREL software. The econometric results suggest that, first, the tax burden, the degree of economic activity regulation as well as the unemployment rate are the strongest factors acting as the driving force behind the informal activity in the country and, second, that the informal economic activity index estimated by the model presents a clear increase along the considered period of study.

Key words: shadow economy, informal economic activity index, MIMIC models.

JEL Classification
O17


 

 

Texto completo disponível apenas em PDF.

Full text available only in PDF format.

 

 

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(Recebido em agosto de 2001. Aceito para publicação em abril de 2003).

 

 

e-mail: robertonr@receita.fazenda.gov.br
e-mail: mirta@unb.br