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Pesquisa Operacional

Print version ISSN 0101-7438On-line version ISSN 1678-5142

Abstract

MOURA, Márcio das Chagas  and  DROGUETT, Enrique López. A continuous-time semi-markov bayesian belief network model for availability measure estimation of fault tolerant systems. Pesqui. Oper. [online]. 2008, vol.28, n.2, pp.355-375. ISSN 0101-7438.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0101-74382008000200011.

In this work it is proposed a model for the assessment of availability measure of fault tolerant systems based on the integration of continuous time semi-Markov processes and Bayesian belief networks. This integration results in a hybrid stochastic model that is able to represent the dynamic characteristics of a system as well as to deal with cause-effect relationships among external factors such as environmental and operational conditions. The hybrid model also allows for uncertainty propagation on the system availability. It is also proposed a numerical procedure for the solution of the state probability equations of semi-Markov processes described in terms of transition rates. The numerical procedure is based on the application of Laplace transforms that are inverted by the Gauss quadrature method known as Gauss Legendre. The hybrid model and numerical procedure are illustrated by means of an example of application in the context of fault tolerant systems.

Keywords : semi-Markov processes; Bayesian belief networks; Laplace transforms; availability measure; fault tolerant systems.

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