EXTREME EVENTS, CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION IN THE STATE OF SÃO PAULO

Giulio, Gabriela Marques Di; Torres, Roger Rodrigues; Vasconcellos, Maria da Penha; Braga, Diego R. G. C.; Mancini, Rosa Maria; Lemos, Maria Carmen

doi:10.1590/1809-4422asoc0277r1vu19L4AO

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Original Article • Ambient. soc. 22 • 2019 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1809-4422asoc0277r1vu19L4AO copy

EXTREME EVENTS, CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION IN THE STATE OF SÃO PAULO¹ 1 . The authors thank the PMVA coordination for granting access to the questionnaires and to the following financing agents: Fapesp - Proc. 2014/50313-8; CNPq - Proc. 446032/2015-8; U-M/Brazil partnership. They also thank Vitor Cesar Vaneti for elaborating the database and Inamara Viana for revising the tables.

EVENTOS EXTREMOS, CAMBIOS CLIMÁTICOS Y ADAPTACIONES EN EL ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze secondary data from surveys focusing on climate change and adaptation in Sao Paulo municipalities. The survey was completed by municipal actors who work in 332 of the 645 municipalities in the State. In this paper, we use a theoretical framework on urban climate governance, which highlights the role that local governments play in proposing strategies to deal with climate change, to present and discuss data related to: 1) the occurrence of extreme climatic events in these municipalities; 2) the impacts of these events; 3) local government actors’ perception about climate change; and 4) local actions and responses. Our analysis of these data significantly contributes to better understanding how cities in the most populous and economically developed state in Brazil perceive, respond and deal with climate change and what critical challenges hamper climate adaptation in these cities.

Keywords:
climate change; extreme events; adaptation; cities; São Paulo State

Event	2014
	Yes	No	NR	Total
	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %
Mild, moderate and severe floods	98 29.5	133 40.1	101 30.4	332 100.0
Land slide, collapse and slip	53 15.0	166 50.0	113 34.0	332 100.0
Drought	128 38.6	102 30.7	102 30.7	332 100.0
None of these events occurs	56 16.9	0 0.0	276 83.1	332 100.0
Other events	45 13.6	131 39.5	156 47.0	332 100.0

Event	2015
	Yes	No	NR	Total
	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %
Mild, moderate and severe floods	88 26.5	140 42.2	104 31.3	332 100.0
Land slide, collapse and slip	41 12.3	171 51.5	120 36.1	332 100.0
Drought	99 29.8	127 38.3	106 31.9	332 100.0
None of these events occurs	52 15.7	17 5.1	263 79.2	332 100.0
Other events	43 13.0	131 39.5	158 47.6	332 100.0

Impact on the Population	Event
	Mild, moderate and severe floods	Land slide, collapse and slip	Drought
	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %
1 - Very low	59 17.8	68 20.5	36 10.8
2 - Low	48 14.5	22 6.6	34 10.2
3 - Moderate	52 15.7	17 5.1	49 14.8
4 - High	19 5.7	18 5.4	37 11.1
5 - Very high	17 5.1	6 1.8	23 6.9
NR	137 41.3	201 60.5	153 46.1
Total	332 100.0	332 100.0	332 100.0
Impact on the Infrastructure	Event
	Mild, moderate and severe floods	Land slide, collapse and slip	Drought
	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %
1 - Very low	78 23.5	65 19.5	68 20.5
2 - Low	46 13,9	26 7.8	44 13.3
3 - Moderate	40 12.0	20 6.0	33 9.9
4 - High	19 5.7	10 3.0	20 6.0
5 - Very high	8 2.4	7 2.1	7 2.1
NR	141 42.5	204 61.4	160 48.2
Total	332 100.0	332 100.0	332 100.0
Impact on the Economy	Event
	Mild, moderate and severe floods	Land slide, collapse and slip	Drought
	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %
1 - Very low	90 27.1	83 25.0	42 12.7
2 - Low	50 15.1	22 6.6	29 87
3 - Moderate	32 9.6	14 4.2.	51 15.4
4 - High	10 3.0	3 0.9	38 11.4
5 - Very high	2 0.6	2 0.6	21 6.3
NR	148 44.6	208 62.7	151 45.5
Total	332 100.0	332 100.0	332 100.0
Impact on Health	Event
	Mild, moderate and severe floods	Land slide, collapse and slip	Drought
	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %
1 - Very low	96 28.9	83 25.0	41 12.3
2 - Low	41 12.3	25 7.5	24 7.2
3 - Moderate	32 9.6	10 3.0	54 16.3
4 - High	11 3.3	6 1.8	38 11.4
5 - Very high	4 1.2	1 0.3	23 6.9
NR	148 44.6	207 62.3	152 45.8
Total	332 100.0	332 100.0	332 100.0

Scale of responsibility by the Federal Government	Event
	Mild, moderate and severe floods	Land slide, collapse and slip	Drought
	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %
1 - Very low	36 10.8	46 13.9	37 11.1
2 - Low	36 10.8	28 8.4	21 6.3
3 - Medium	56 16.9	43 13.0	33 9.9
4 - High	46 13.9	49 14.8	60 18.1
5 - Very high	81 24.4	60 18.1	83 25.0
NR	77 23.2	106 31.9	98 29.5
Total	332 100.0	332 100.0	332 100.0
Scale of responsibility by the State Government	Event
	Mild, moderate and severe floods	Land slide, collapse and slip	Drought
	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %
1 - Very low	15 4.5	24 7.2	32 9.6
2 - Low	25 7.5	23 6.9	17 5.1
3 - Medium	62 18.7	50 15.1	38 11.4
4 - High	83 25.0	67 20.2	62 18.7
5 - Very high	70 21.1	63 19.0	83 25.0
NR	77 23.2	105 31.6	100 30.1
Total	332 100.0	332 100.0	332 100.0
Scale of responsibility by the Municipal Government	Event
	Mild, moderate and severe floods	Land slide, collapse and slip	Drought
	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %
1 - Very low	12 3.6	12 3.6	41 12.3
2 - Low	11 3.3	8 2.4	15 4.5
3 - Medium	71 21.4	56 16.9	52 15.7
4 - High	67 20.2	61 18.4	45 13.6
5 - Very high	107 32.2	97 29.2	79 23.8
NR	64 19.3	98 29.5	100 30.1
Total	332 100.0	332 100.0	332 100.0
Scale of responsibility by the universities and research centers	Event
	Mild, moderate and severe floods	Land slide, collapse and slip	Drought
	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %
1 - Very low	76 22.9	70 21.1	58 17.5
2 - Low	62 18.7	47 14.2	33 9.9
3 - Medium	49 14.8	48 14.5	44 13.3
4 - High	25 7.5	24 7.2	37 11.1
5 - Very high	29 8.7	26 7.8	45 13.6
NR	91 27.4	117 35.2	115 34.6
Total	332 100.0	332 100.0	332 100.0
Scale of responsibility by the private productive sector	Event
	Mild, moderate and severe floods	Land slide, collapse and slip	Drought
	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %
1 - Very low	72 21.7	67 20.2	52 15.7
2 - Low	62 18.7	60 18.1	33 9.9
3 - Moderate	57 17.2	43 13.0	40 12.0
4 - High	24 7.2	21 6.3	42 12.7
5 - Very high	28 8.4	26 7.8	51 15.4
NR	89 26.8	115 34.6	114 34.3
Total	332 100.0	332 100.0	332 100.0
Individual Scale of responsibility	Event
	Mild, moderate and severe floods	Land slide, collapse and slip	Drought
	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %
1 - Very low	56 16.9	60 18.1	62 18.7
2 - Low	40 12.0	39 11.7	20 6.0
3 - Medium	70 21.1	56 16.9	44 13.3
4 - High	23 6.9	18 5.4	39 11.7
5 - Very high	51 15.4	40 12.0	54 16.3
NR	92 27.7	119 35.8	113 34.0
Total	332 100.0	332 100.0	332 100.0
Scale of responsibility by the community	Event
	Mild, moderate and severe floods	Land slide, collapse and slip	Drought
	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %	Abs.n. %
1 - Very low	33 9.9	34 10.2	52 15.7
2 - Low	37 11.1	38 11.4	24 7.2
3 - Medium	76 22.9	69 20.8	49 14.8
4 - High	49 14.8	35 10.5	38 11.4
5 - Very high	55 16.6	44 13.3	62 18.7
NR	82 24.7	112 33.7	107 32.2
Total	332 100.0	332 100.0	332 100.0

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[TFN1] Source: PMVA-SMS. Elaboration: VCV

[TFN2] Note: NR “no response”