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Simple prediction model for unfavorable outcome in ischemic stroke after intravenous thrombolytic therapy

Modelo simples de predição de desfecho desfavorável em acidente vascular cerebral isquêmico tratado após terapia trombolítica intravenosa

ABSTRACT

Objective

We aimed to develop a model to predict unfavorable outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with intravenous thrombolytic therapy (IVT), based on simple variables present on admission.

Methods

Retrospective analysis of acute ischemic stroke patients treated with IVT in a hospital in Rio de Janeiro. Clinical and radiographic variables were selected for analysis. Multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a predictive model.

Results

We analyzed a total of 82 patients. Median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) on admission was 9 (3–22), 40.2% presented with a hyperdense artery sign (HAS), 62% had identifiable early parenchymal changes and 61.6% experienced a favorable outcome. An NIHSS score of > 12 on arrival, age > 70 and the presence of HAS were associated with the outcome, even after correction in a logistic regression model.

Conclusion

An NIHSS > 12 on arrival, presence of HAS and age > 70 years were predictors of unfavorable outcome at three months in patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with IVT.

stroke; thrombolytic therapy; forecasting

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