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Bragantia

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Abstract

BLAIN, Gabriel Constantino. Extreme daily rainfall totals observed between 1890-2009 in the weather station of Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil: statistical evaluations . Bragantia [online]. 2011, vol.70, n.3, pp. 722-728. ISSN 0006-8705.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0006-87052011000300031.

The aim of the work was to evaluate the probability of occurrence of daily extreme rainfall totals during each year (Preabs), considering the time series of 1890 to 2009 in the weather station of Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil. The probability calculations were based on the General Extreme Value distribution (GEV) from two methods of parameter estimations: the maximum likelihood and the L-moments. After evaluating the presence of no significant serial correlation, no trends, and no periodical components within the analyzed time series, it was verified that the GEV can be used to assess the probability of occurrence of the Preabs totals in the location of Campinas. The Lilliefors test and the Quantil-Quantil plots have indicated that the maximum likelihood method can be seen as a better model as compared to the L-moments in calculating the GEV parameters. It was also observed an increasing level of the wavelet energy after the 1990s. As the period between 1920 and 1935 has shown a similar feature on the wavelet sign, it can be inferred that the higher Preabs values are concentrated during these both periods (1920-1935 and after the 1990s).

Keywords : general extreme value distribution; Lilliefors.

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