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Bragantia

Print version ISSN 0006-8705

Abstract

FERNANDES, Diego Simões; KRUGER, Luiz Fernando; HEINEMANN, Alexandre Bryan  and  ROCHA, Rosmeri Porfírio da. Identification and characterization of drought/wet events homogeneous environments based on regional climate simulations. Bragantia [online]. 2012, vol.71, n.2, pp. 290-298.  Epub July 13, 2012. ISSN 0006-8705.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0006-87052012005000014.

The objective of this study was to identify and characterize homogeneous environments based on the probability of drought/wet occurrence in the central-northern Brazil, considering Rondônia, Mato Grosso, Goiás and Tocantins States. The drought index denominated the moisture anomaly Z-index (Z-index) was used. The input climate data for the drought index was generated by the regional climate model RegCM3 for the period from 1975 to 1989. As result of cluster analysis, it was identified 13 homogeneous environments. These environments were characterized based on the probability of drought/wet, relative density of drought/wet occurrence, annual rainfall variability and probability of drought occurrence during the rainy season (October to March). The Mato Grosso State had the highest number of homogeneous environments and the environment 11, located at southwest of this State had the highest probability of drought occurrence, 9%. The environment 10, located at the extreme east of Goiás State, showed the lowest median for the total annual rainfall. The climatic event with the highest probability of occurrence in the study area is close to normal or normality moisture.

Keywords : drought; Palmer moisture anomaly index (Z-index); regional climate model.

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