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Abstract

RENNO, Lucio  and  SPANAKOS, Anthony P.. Economic fundamentals, financial markets, and voting preferences: the 1994, 1998, and 2002 Brazilian presidential elections. Dados [online]. 2006, vol.49, n.1, pp. 11-40. ISSN 0011-5258.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0011-52582006000100002.

This article explores the relationship between macroeconomic indicators, financial markets, and voting intentions in the 1994, 1998, and 2002 Brazilian Presidential elections. Several hypotheses concerning the relationship between economic performance and politics were tested using a data set containing aggregate measures of self-reported preferences for the Presidential candidates and economic indicators (inflation, unemployment, exchange rate, C-Bond spread, and the São Paulo Stock Exchange Index). The first hypothesis refers to the potential simultaneity between economic indicators and voting intentions. Other hypotheses relate to the varied impact of different economic indicators on the intention to vote for a specific Presidential candidate as opposed to others. The results indicate that retrospective voting, based on the performance of economic fundamentals and not the financial market, predominates in Brazil.

Keywords : Presidential elections; economic indicators; election preferences.

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