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Print version ISSN 0011-5258On-line version ISSN 1678-4588


SPOSITO, Ítalo Beltrão. Changes in Foreign Policies of Latin American and Caribbean States: An Analysis Based on the United Nations General Assembly Voting Records. Dados [online]. 2019, vol.62, n.4, e20160012.  Epub Dec 05, 2019. ISSN 1678-4588.

In this article, we seek to find the main conjuncture conditions that may increase the chances of Foreign Policy Redirections, based on an analysis of Latin American countries between 1945 and 2008. The goal is to test the effect of variables identified with the concept of “policy window”, used in the literature to define the best periods for decision-makers to initiate foreign policy redirection processes. In order to do so, we used a survival model (Cox Proportional Hazard Model) that analyzes the effect of variables on the chances of an event occurring, in this case, the foreign policy redirections. The dependent variable is based on the coincidence of votes between the United States and each Latin American country, and the ideal point of these countries at the annual sessions of the United Nations General Assembly. Foreign policy redirection is considered to occur when there is an annual change greater than two standard deviations. Variables of interest are: regime change, change of leader, US military intervention, change in the level of financial aid, and US imposition of economic embargoes .

Keywords : redirection; foreign policy; policy window; United Nations General Assembly; Cox Proportional Hazard Model.

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