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MEIRELES, Fernando. Political Careers in the House of Representatives: A Quasi-Experimental Analysis. Dados [online]. 2019, vol.62, n.4, e20160198.  Epub Dec 05, 2019. ISSN 1678-4588.

This article investigates the effect of elections on the careers of federal deputy candidates in Brazil. Following a regression discontinuity design, it shows that the results of a single election have substantial impacts on parliamentary careers: obtaining a seat in the House results in an increase of about 25 percentage points in the chance of a politician being reelected four years later. This effect remains positive for up to twelve years after the first term. Defeated candidates, by contrast, tend to aim for more elective office positions in the municipalities, but are not only less likely to obtain them, but also much more likely to completely withdraw from the electoral arena. In this context, the article contributes by showing that the results of a single election decisively affect the career prospects of Brazilian politicians.

Keywords : political careers; House of Representatives; incumbency advantage; reelection; discontinuous regression.

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