Revista Brasileira de Economia
versión On-line ISSN 1806-9134
POSSAS, Mario L. et al. Um modelo evolucionário setorial. Rev. Bras. Econ. [online]. 2001, vol.55, n.3, pp. 333-377. ISSN 1806-9134. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-71402001000300002.
This paper presents a sectoral evolutionary simulation model combining neo-Schumpeterian and Post-Keynesian microfoundations, and exhibits some preliminary results. As to different market environment conditions, the simulations suggest: a positive effect of productivity growth of the technological frontier on market concentration; an ambiguous result of "learning by doing", from which innovation leaders may be found "locked in" new technologies that eventually become obsolete; a "counter-selective" effect of very high interest rates which may increase innovators indebtedness to the extent of impairing their investment efforts and competitive success as compared to some imitators. As to different price strategies, major findings are: greater selectivity of strategies in which innovators put more emphasis on their own desired mark-up than on average market price, thus enhancing market concentration, an effect that can be restrained by higher market demand growth and "learning by doing"; the importance, for the survival of less innovative firms, of a feedback from competitive performance to desired and effective mark-ups (price strategies), which increases their adaptability to market selection conditions.
Palabras clave : modelo evolucionário de simulação; dinâmica industrial.