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Revista Brasileira de Economia
On-line version ISSN 1806-9134
TELES, Vladimir Kühl and NEMOTO, Joana. O regime de metas de inflação do Brasil é crível?. Rev. Bras. Econ. [online]. 2005, vol.59, n.3, pp. 483-505. ISSN 1806-9134. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-71402005000300006.
A Central Bank that achieves and maintains its objective of a low and stable inflation rate, and does not attempt to exploit the trade-off between real output and inflation is defined to be credible. A time series model was estimated in order to verify the brazilian inflation target regime's credibility. At the same time, a monetary policy's credibility index was built upon a State-Space model. In this model a random coeficients Kalman filter model of the inflation-output trade-off indicates the evolution in the credibility of the brazilian Central Bank as an inflation fighter.
Keywords : credibilidade; metas de inflação; política monetária..