Abstract

TELES, Vladimir Kühl  and  NEMOTO, Joana. O regime de metas de inflação do Brasil é crível?. Rev. Bras. Econ. [online]. 2005, vol.59, n.3, pp. 483-505. ISSN 0034-7140.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-71402005000300006.

A Central Bank that achieves and maintains its objective of a low and stable inflation rate, and does not attempt to exploit the trade-off between real output and inflation is defined to be credible. A time series model was estimated in order to verify the brazilian inflation target regime's credibility. At the same time, a monetary policy's credibility index was built upon a State-Space model. In this model a random coeficients Kalman filter model of the inflation-output trade-off indicates the evolution in the credibility of the brazilian Central Bank as an inflation fighter.

Keywords : credibilidade; metas de inflação; política monetária..