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vol.68 issue1Propagação assimétrica de choques monetários na economia brasileira: evidências com base em um modelo vetorial não-linear de transição suaveMonetary policy and regional output in Brazil author indexsubject indexarticles search
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Revista Brasileira de Economia

Print version ISSN 0034-7140

Abstract

FELICIO, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira  and  ROSSI JUNIOR, José Luiz. Common factors and the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case. Rev. Bras. Econ. [online]. 2014, vol.68, n.1, pp.49-71. ISSN 0034-7140.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-71402014000100004.

This paper studies the usefulness of factor models in explaining the dynamics of the exchange rate Real / Dollar from January 1999 to August 2011. The paper verifies that the inclusion of factors embedded on the common movements of exchange rates of a set of countries significantly improves the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of the models comprising only macroeconomic fundamentals commonly used in the literature to forecast the exchange rate. The paper also links the information contained in the factors to global shocks like the demand for dollars - a "dollar effect", volatility and liquidity of global financial markets.

Keywords : Exchange rates; Factor models; Forecasting.

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