Compromisso Fiscal, Expectativas Empresariais e Produção Industrial: O Caso Brasileiro

Montes, Gabriel Caldas; Almeida, André Filipe Guedes

doi:10.5935/0034-7140.20160011

Gabriel Caldas Montes

Universidade Federal Fluminense, Departamento de Economia. Rua Geraldo Martins, 23, Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, RJ. CEP 24220380. Email: gabrielmontesuff@yahoo.com.br

André Filipe Guedes Almeida

Universidade Federal Fluminense, Departamento de Economia. Rua Geraldo Martins, 23, Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, RJ. CEP 24.220380.

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Figura 1
Indicadores de confiança.

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Figura 2
Indicadores macroeconômicos.

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Figura 3
Evolução das dívidas bruta e líquida do governo como percentual do PIB.

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Figura 4
Evolução do Índice de Confiança da Indústria (FGV).

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Tabela 1a
Estimações por MQO para o Índice de confiança da indústria.

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Tabela 1b
Estimações por MMG para o Índice de confiança da indústria.

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Tabela 2a
Estimações por MQO para o Índice de confiança da indústria.

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Tabela 2b
Estimações por MMG para o Índice de confiança da indústria.

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Tabela 3
Estimações por MQO e MMG para o índice de produção industrial.

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Tabela A-1
Testes de Raiz Unitária (ADF, PP e KPSS).

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Tabela A-2
Ordem de defasagem do VAR – ^,^,^, e .

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Tabela A-3
Testes de cointegração de Johansen – equações , , e .

Eq.(6)

Eq.(9)

Eq. (16)

Eq. (19)

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Tabela A-4
Teste de cointegração de Johansen – .

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Tabela A-5
Testes de diagnóstico – a .

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Tabela A-6
Testes de diagnóstico – a .

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Tabela A-7
Testes de diagnóstico – a .

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Tabela A-8
Variáveis instrumentais referentes às estimações MMG da .

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Tabela A-9
Variáveis instrumentais referentes às estimações MMG da .

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Tabela A-10
Variáveis instrumentais referentes às estimações MMG da .

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Regressores	(1)nw	(2)nw	(3)nw	(4)nw	(5)nw	(6)nw	(7)	(8)nw	(9)nw	(10)nw
c	-79.657^* * denota 10%.	-97.116^* ***** denota 1%;	-68.582^ denota 5%; e	-20.450	-62.660^ denota 5%; e	-24.760	-65.647^* ***** denota 1%;	-41.492	-42.795	-62.269^* ***** denota 1%;
	(40.270)	(25.178)	(26.156)	(31.758)	(24.018)	(30.004)	(22.050)	(28.641)	(27.192)	(23.406)
	[-1.978]	[-3.857]	[-2.622]	[-0.644]	[-2.609]	[-0.825]	[-2.977]	[-1.449]	[-1.574]	[-2.660]
gap (-2)	100.240^ denota 5%; e	100.859^* ***** denota 1%;	101.683^* ***** denota 1%;	74.548^* ***** denota 1%;	95.004^* ***** denota 1%;	74.207^* ***** denota 1%;	97.448^* ***** denota 1%;	81.250^* ***** denota 1%;	80.242^* ***** denota 1%;	94.473^* ***** denota 1%;
	(46.283)	(30.203)	(28.908)	(26.562)	(25.092)	(23.924)	(25.173)	(27.485)	(24.684)	(24.435)
	[2.166]	[3.339]	[3.517]	[2.807]	[3.786]	[3.102]	[3.871]	[2.956]	[3.251]	[3.866]
ye (-1)		3.874^* ***** denota 1%;	4.051^* ***** denota 1%;	3.013^* ***** denota 1%;	3.593^* ***** denota 1%;	2.832^* ***** denota 1%;	3.840^* ***** denota 1%;	3.401^* ***** denota 1%;	3.148^* ***** denota 1%;	3.641^* ***** denota 1%;
		(0.589)	(0.569)	(0.731)	(0.560)	(0.698)	(0.480)	(0.667)	(0.644)	(0.543)
		[6.573]	[7.120]	[4.123]	[6.418]	[4.059]	[7.995]	[5.100]	[4.885]	[6.694]
ipc (-3)	-7.074^* ***** denota 1%;	-3.747^* ***** denota 1%;	-2.739^* ***** denota 1%;	-3.555^* ***** denota 1%;	-2.825^* ***** denota 1%;	-3.470^* ***** denota 1%;	-2.814^* ***** denota 1%;	-3.225^* ***** denota 1%;	-3.183^* ***** denota 1%;	-2.825^* ***** denota 1%;
	(1.007)	(0.631)	(0.518)	(0.641)	(0.462)	(0.596)	(0.609)	(0.559)	(0.519)	(0.460)
	[-7.025]	[-5.939]	[-5.294]	[-5.547]	[-6.110]	[-5.819]	[-4.619]	[-5.772]	[-6.136]	[-6.145]
e_ipc (-1)		-1.834^* * denota 10%.	-3.752^* ***** denota 1%;	-4.749^* ***** denota 1%;	-3.832^* ***** denota 1%;	-4.624^* ***** denota 1%;	-3.840^* ***** denota 1%;	-4.314^* ***** denota 1%;	-4.249^* ***** denota 1%;	-3.856^* ***** denota 1%;
		(0.926)	(0.945)	(1.023)	(0.815)	(0.912)	(0.975)	(0.981)	(0.850)	(0.801)
		[-1.980]	[-3.972]	[-4.643]	[-4.700]	[-5.068]	[-3.938]	[-4.398]	[-5.001]	[-4.816]
ir (-5)			-1.319^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.737^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.277^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.622^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.317^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.540^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.448^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.298^* ***** denota 1%;
			(0.282)	(0.326)	(0.260)	(0.311)	(0.270)	(0.308)	(0.288)	(0.260)
			[-4.678]	[-5.334]	[-4.906]	[-5.213]	[-4.871]	[-5.001]	[-5.027]	[-4.997]
fri				20.033^* ***** denota 1%;		16.196^ denota 5%; e
				(7.513)		(7.441)
				[2.666]		[2.177]
fri_2								21.341^ denota 5%; e	16.119^* * denota 10%.
								(9.674)	(9.388)
								[2.206]	[1.717]
dsp					0.445^ denota 5%; e	0.369^* * denota 10%.			0.400^ denota 5%; e
					(0.180)	(0.187)			(0.183)
					[2.476]	[1.972]			[2.188]
fri*dsp							3.830^* ***** denota 1%;
							(1.143)
							[3.351]
fri_2*dsp										1.609^* ***** denota 1%;
										(0.593)
										[2.712]
infr	0.008^* ***** denota 1%;	0.008^* ***** denota 1%;	0.007^* ***** denota 1%;	0.007^* ***** denota 1%;	0.007^* ***** denota 1%;	0.007^* ***** denota 1%;	0.007^* ***** denota 1%;	0.007^* ***** denota 1%;	0.007^* ***** denota 1%;	0.007^* ***** denota 1%;
	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
	[6.491]	[7.866]	[8.020]	[7.642]	[9.127]	[8.370]	[9.609]	[7.469]	[8.386]	[9.330]
subp	-0.046^ denota 5%; e	-11.187^* ***** denota 1%;	-9.973^* ***** denota 1%;	-9.395^* ***** denota 1%;	-8.830^* ***** denota 1%;	-8.558^* ***** denota 1%;	-8.163^* ***** denota 1%;	-9.689^* ***** denota 1%;	-8.729^* ***** denota 1%;	-8.493^* ***** denota 1%;
	(4.427)	(3.142)	(3.012)	(2.993)	(2.516)	(2.587)	(2.007)	(3.027)	(2.577)	(2.417)
	[-2.043]	[-3.560]	[-3.311]	[-3.139]	[-3.509]	[-3.307]	[-4.067]	[-3.201]	[-3.388]	[-3.513]

R²	0.74	0.87	0.90	0.91	0.91	0.92	0.91	0.91	0.92	0.91
R² ajustado	0.73	0.87	0.89	0.90	0.90	0.91	0.91	0.90	0.91	0.91
estatística F	63.48	100.55	110.87	107.00	108.17	102.34	110.23	101.54	98.34	110.26
P-valor (estatística F)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ramsey reset (1)	0.66	1.71	0.84	0.60	1.00	0.64	1.34	7.50	0.70	1.14
Prob (Ramsey)	0.51	0.09	0.41	0.55	0.31	0.53	0.18	0.01	0.49	0.26
Jarque Bera	2.72	0.56	3.26	12.43	1.79	8.46	0.20	7.42	4.79	1.26
Prob(Jarque Bera)	0.26	0.75	0.20	0.00	0.40	0.01	0.90	0.02	0.09	0.53

Regressores	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)
c	-136.014^* ***** denota 1%;	-209.898^* ***** denota 1%;	-104.460^* * denota 10%.	-41.197^* * denota 10%.	-66.307^* ***** denota 1%;	-41.024^* * denota 10%.	-58.896^* ***** denota 1%;	-55.732^* * denota 10%.	-70.491^ denota 5%; e	-86.327^* ***** denota 1%;
	(49.914)	(48.253)	(52.923)	(24.337)	(18.238)	(23.856)	(19.493)	(31.568)	(28.391)	(21.829)
	[-2.725]	[-4.350]	[-1.974]	[-1.693]	[-3.636]	[-1.720]	[-3.021]	[-1.765]	[-2.483]	[-3.955]
gap (-2)	162.414^ denota 5%; e	227.388^* ***** denota 1%;	130.334^ denota 5%; e	84.759^* ***** denota 1%;	90.540^* ***** denota 1%;	84.849^* ***** denota 1%;	80.492^* ***** denota 1%;	92.109^* ***** denota 1%;	113.395^* ***** denota 1%;	119.661^* ***** denota 1%;
	(62.205)	(58.768)	(64.279)	(21.403)	(21.391)	(20.515)	(22.605)	(31.582)	(32.844)	(27.064)
	[2.611]	[3.869]	[2.028]	[3.960]	[4.233]	[4.136]	[3.561]	[2.917]	[-2.483]	[4.421]
ye (-1)		3.284^ denota 5%; e	3.269^* ***** denota 1%;	4.412^* ***** denota 1%;	4.741^* ***** denota 1%;	4.331^* ***** denota 1%;	5.097^* ***** denota 1%;	3.983^* ***** denota 1%;	3.898^* ***** denota 1%;	4.719^* ***** denota 1%;
		(1.369)	(1.119)	(0.479)	(0.399)	(0.486)	(0.404)	(0.519)	(0.536)	(0.413)
		[2.398]	[2.922]	[9.215]	[11.869]	[8.911]	[12.608]	[7.675]	[7.273]	[11.428]
ipc (-3)	-6.051^* ***** denota 1%;	-2.264^* ***** denota 1%;	-3.027^* ***** denota 1%;	-3.323^* ***** denota 1%;	-2.841^* ***** denota 1%;	-3.160^* ***** denota 1%;	-2.940^* ***** denota 1%;	-2.927^* ***** denota 1%;	-2.613^* ***** denota 1%;	-2.034^* ***** denota 1%;
	(0.826)	(0.850)	(0.643)	(0.448)	(0.456)	(0.433)	(0.469)	(0.504)	(0.537)	(0.577)
	[-7.323]	[-2.664]	[-4.705]	[-7.414]	[-6.236]	[-7.290]	[-6.273]	[-5.804]	[-4.866]	[-3.522]
e_ipc (-1)		-3.384^* * denota 10%.	-4.768^* ***** denota 1%;	-2.695^* ***** denota 1%;	-2.402^* ***** denota 1%;	-2.637^* ***** denota 1%;	-2.212^* ***** denota 1%;	-3.724^* ***** denota 1%;	-3.477^* ***** denota 1%;	-3.092^* ***** denota 1%;
		(1.884)	(1.553)	(0.887)	(0.663)	(0.864)	(0.711)	(0.891)	(0.918)	(0.781)
		[-1.796]	[-3.070]	[-3.038]	[-3.626]	[-3.054]	[-3.113]	[-4.182]	[-3.789]	[-3.961]
ir (-5)			-1.093^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.528^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.325^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.537^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.404^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.273^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.210^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.196^* ***** denota 1%;
			(0.274)	(0.222)	(0.169)	(0.251)	(0.161)	(0.250)	(0.254)	(0.191)
			[-3.985]	[-6.878]	[-7.832]	[-6.131]	[-8.733]	[-5.100]	[-4.757]	[-6.254]
fri				16.730^ denota 5%; e		14.217^* * denota 10%.
				(6.340)		(7.584)
				[2.639]		[1.875]
fri_2								27.701^* ***** denota 1%;	22.321^ denota 5%; e
								(7.998)	(9.594)
								[3.464]	[2.327]
dsp					0.400^* ***** denota 1%;	0.308^* * denota 10%.			0.466^ denota 5%; e
					(0.146)	(0.162)			(0.202)
					[2.741]	[1.903]			[2.312]
fri*dsp							2.647^ denota 5%; e
							(1.188)
							[2.227]
fri_2*dsp										1.987^* ***** denota 1%;
										(0.555)
										[3.578]
infr	0.007^* ***** denota 1%;	0.007^* ***** denota 1%;	0.008^* ***** denota 1%;	0.006^* ***** denota 1%;	0.007^* ***** denota 1%;	0.006^* ***** denota 1%;	0.007^* ***** denota 1%;	0.006^* ***** denota 1%;	0.006^* ***** denota 1%;	0.006^* ***** denota 1%;
	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
	[4.415]	[5.494]	[6.401]	[6.693]	[9.793]	[6.174]	[10.17343]	[7.688]	[6.257]	[8.370]
subp	-18.962^* ***** denota 1%;	-30.496^* ***** denota 1%;	-17.871^* ***** denota 1%;	-10.053^* ***** denota 1%;	-6.030^ denota 5%; e	-8.803^* ***** denota 1%;	-4.723^* * denota 10%.	-17.140^* ***** denota 1%;	-17.668^* ***** denota 1%;	-13.428^* ***** denota 1%;
	(6.617)	(6.639)	(4.373)	(2.750)	(2.330)	(2.465)	(2.778)	(2.655)	(3.393)	(2.427)
	[-2.866]	[-4.593]	[-4.087]	[-3.656]	[-2.588]	[-3.572]	[-1.700]	[-6.457]	[-5.207]	[-5.532]

R²	0.70	0.75	0.88	0.90	0.90	0.91	0.90	0.88	0.88	0.90
R² ajustado	0.69	0.74	0.86	0.89	0.89	0.90	0.89	0.87	0.87	0.89
estatísitca J	12.37	7.22	7.98	17.53	17.88	16.60	18.46	18.03	17.84	18.71
estatísitca J (p-valor)	0.26	0.61	0.44	0.78	0.76	0.79	0.73	0.70	0.66	0.66
Rank (número de instrumentos)	15	16	16	32	32	32	32	31	31	31

Regressores	(11)nw	(12)nw	(13)nw	(14)w	(15)nw	(16)	(17)	(18)w	(19)nw	(20)
c	-194.016^* ***** denota 1%;	-165.773^* ***** denota 1%;	-130.594^* ***** denota 1%;	-133.010^* ***** denota 1%;	-127.713^* ***** denota 1%;	-135.658^* ***** denota 1%;	-130.416^* ***** denota 1%;	-127.656^* ***** denota 1%;	-128.150^* ***** denota 1%;	-127.424^* ***** denota 1%;
	(47.119)	(20.658)	(23.531)	(34.176)	(22.685)	(30.209)	(28.047)	(33.268)	(25.487)	(28.041)
	[-4.118]	[-8.025]	[-5.550]	[-3.892]	[-5.630]	[-4.491]	[-4.650]	[-3.837]	[-5.028]	[-4.544]
gap (-2)	236.068^* ***** denota 1%;	171.721^* ***** denota 1%;	151.190^* ***** denota 1%;	151.954^* ***** denota 1%;	146.818^* ***** denota 1%;	149.114^* ***** denota 1%;	148.127^* ***** denota 1%;	149.423^* ***** denota 1%;	147.070^* ***** denota 1%;	146.158^* ***** denota 1%;
	(55.680)	(28.720)	(23.412)	(30.958)	(20.297)	(31.653)	(31.344)	(30.911)	(22.466)	(31.345)
	[4.240]	[5.979]	[6.258]	[4.908]	[7.234]	[4.711]	[4.726]	[4.834]	[6.546]	[4.663]
ye (-1)		5.744^* ***** denota 1%;	6.219^* ***** denota 1%;	6.263^* ***** denota 1%;	5.816^* ***** denota 1%;	5.936^* ***** denota 1%;	6.085^* ***** denota 1%;	6.137^* ***** denota 1%;	5.827^* ***** denota 1%;	5.890^* ***** denota 1%;
		(0.672)	(0.561)	(0.508)	(0.604)	(0.517)	(0.462)	(0.523)	(0.753)	(0.476)
		[8.553]	[11.087]	[12.324]	[9.627]	[11.490]	[13.178]	[11.731]	[7.733]	[12.363]
igp (-3)	-1.045^* ***** denota 1%;	-0.686^* ***** denota 1%;	-0.447^ denota 5%; e	-0.437^ denota 5%; e	-0.495^ denota 5%; e	-0.464^ denota 5%; e	-0.523^* ***** denota 1%;	-0.473^ denota 5%; e	-0.492^ denota 5%; e	-0.500^* ***** denota 1%;
	(0.352)	(0.200)	(0.191)	(0.190)	(0.196)	(0.192)	(0.188)	(0.195)	(0.221)	(0.186)
	[-2.967]	[-3.434]	[-2.345]	[-2.303]	[-2.527]	[-2.417]	[-2.789]	[-2.426]	[-2.224]	[-2.688]
e_igp (-1)		-2.092^ denota 5%; e	-2.498^ denota 5%; e	-2.404^ denota 5%; e	-2.514^ denota 5%; e	-2.197^ denota 5%; e	-2.315^* ***** denota 1%;	-2.645^ denota 5%; e	-2.492^ denota 5%; e	-2.470^* ***** denota 1%;
		(0.940)	(0.958)	(1.007)	(0.964)	(0.935)	(0.828)	(1.045)	(1.236)	(0.824)
		[-2.226]	[-2.608]	[-2.386]	[-2.607]	[-2.349]	[-2.794]	[-2.531]	[-2.016]	[-2.997]
ir (-5)			-0.940^ denota 5%; e	-0.908^ denota 5%; e	-0.862^ denota 5%; e	-0.751^* * denota 10%.	-0.862^ denota 5%; e	-0.977^* ***** denota 1%;	-0.856^ denota 5%; e	-0.874^ denota 5%; e
			(0.432)	(0.370)	(0.430)	(0.384)	(0.352)	(0.346)	(0.419)	(0.351)
			[-2.177]	[-2.453]	[-2.006]	[-1.955]	[-2.452]	[-2.824]	[-2.044]	[-2.493]
fri				-1.738		-5.848
				(7.838)		(8.002)
				[-0.222]		[-0.731]
fri_2								4.777	-0.730
								(12.576)	(18.262)
								[0.380]	[-0.040]
dsp					0.435^ denota 5%; e	0.463^ denota 5%; e			0.437^ denota 5%; e
					(0.215)	(0.184)			(0.213)
					[2.024]	[2.516]			[2.052]
fri*dsp							3.586^ denota 5%; e
							(1.453)
							[2.468]
fri_2*dsp										1.518^ denota 5%; e
										(0.604)
										[2.512]
infr	0.005^* ***** denota 1%;	0.006^* ***** denota 1%;	0.006^* ***** denota 1%;	0.006^* ***** denota 1%;	0.006^* ***** denota 1%;	0.006^* ***** denota 1%;	0.006^* ***** denota 1%;	0.006^* ***** denota 1%;	0.006^* ***** denota 1%;	0.006^* ***** denota 1%;
	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
	[2.651]	[5.822]	[5.479]	[5.102]	[6.099]	[6.444]	[6.472]	[5.062]	[6.402]	[6.526]
subp	-11.784^ denota 5%; e	-10.101^* ***** denota 1%;	-9.562^* ***** denota 1%;	-9.635^ denota 5%; e	-8.254^* ***** denota 1%;	-8.417^* ***** denota 1%;	-7.616^* ***** denota 1%;	-9.403^ denota 5%; e	-8.272^* ***** denota 1%;	-7.976^* ***** denota 1%;
	(5.903)	(3.075)	(2.806)	(4.235)	(2.455)	(2.611)	(2.654)	(4.234)	(2.409)	(2.609)
	[-1.996]	[-3.285]	[-3.408]	[-2.275]	[-3.362]	[-3.224]	[-2.869]	[-2.221]	[-3.434]	[-3.057]

R²	0.47	0.83	0.85	0.85	0.86	0.86	0.86	0.85	0.86	0.86
R² ajustado	0.44	0.81	0.84	0.84	0.85	0.85	0.85	0.84	0.85	0.85
estatística F	19.39	68.90	70.27	60.79	65.79	58.21	65.98	60.87	57.78	66.16
P-valor (estatística F)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ramsey reset (1)	0.49	0.79	0.21	0.23	0.57	0.68	0.67	0.21	0.58	0.61
Prob (Ramsey)	0.63	0.43	0.83	0.82	0.57	0.50	0.51	0.83	0.57	0.54
Jarque Bera	8.60	0.08	0.67	0.66	1.74	1.82	1.74	0.66	1.75	1.83
Prob(Jarque Bera)	0.01	0.96	0.72	0.72	0.42	0.40	0.42	0.72	0.42	0.40

Regressores	(11)	(12)	(13)	(14)	(15)	(16)	(17)	(18)	(19)	(20)
c	-419.963^* ***** denota 1%;	-252.110^* ***** denota 1%;	-186.796^* ***** denota 1%;	-125.259^* ***** denota 1%;	-164.009^* ***** denota 1%;	-134.359^* ***** denota 1%;	-160.906^* ***** denota 1%;	-145.324^* ***** denota 1%;	-152.798^* ***** denota 1%;	-161.286^* ***** denota 1%;
	(86.925)	(44.782)	(38.543)	(27.237)	(22.475)	(31.782)	(22.750)	(22.723)	(26.687)	(22.627)
	[-4.831]	[-5.630]	[-4.846]	[-4.599]	[-7.298]	[-4.227]	[-7.073]	[-6.396]	[-5.726]	[-7.128]
gap (-2)	470.876^* ***** denota 1%;	215.213^* ***** denota 1%;	184.381^* ***** denota 1%;	176.725^* ***** denota 1%;	204.262^* ***** denota 1%;	184.413^* ***** denota 1%;	194.841^* ***** denota 1%;	186.573^* ***** denota 1%;	195.552^* ***** denota 1%;	199.720^* ***** denota 1%;
	(98.688)	(55.462)	(42.632)	(28.416)	(25.339)	(32.058)	(25.951)	(26.102)	(29.121)	(25.238)
	[4.771]	[3.880]	[4.325]	[6.219]	[8.061]	[5.753]	[7.508]	[7.148]	[6.715]	[7.914]
ye (-1)		5.557^* ***** denota 1%;	6.643^* ***** denota 1%;	6.111^* ***** denota 1%;	6.013^* ***** denota 1%;	5.671^* ***** denota 1%;	6.461^* ***** denota 1%;	6.048^* ***** denota 1%;	5.472^* ***** denota 1%;	6.158^* ***** denota 1%;
		(0.901)	(0.593)	(0.364)	(0.300)	(0.403)	(0.298)	(0.390)	(0.431)	(0.280)
		[6.166]	[11.196]	[16.770]	[20.035]	[14.087]	[21.711]	[15.506]	[12.708]	[21.981]
igp (-3)	-1.151^* ***** denota 1%;	-0.702^* ***** denota 1%;	-0.437^ denota 5%; e	-0.430^* ***** denota 1%;	-0.493^* ***** denota 1%;	-0.543^* ***** denota 1%;	-0.558^* ***** denota 1%;	-0.458^* ***** denota 1%;	-0.579^* ***** denota 1%;	-0.504^* ***** denota 1%;
	(0.323)	(0.231)	(0.181)	(0.128)	(0.124)	(0.120)	(0.140)	(0.136)	(0.126)	(0.126)
	[-3.562]	[-3.046]	[-2.415]	[-3.356]	[-3.988]	[-4.539]	[-3.981]	[-3.359]	[-4.576]	[-4.009]
e_igp (-1)		-2.431^* * denota 10%.	-2.149^ denota 5%; e	-2.602^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.310^* * denota 10%.	-2.132^ denota 5%; e	-1.279^* * denota 10%.	-2.591^* ***** denota 1%;	-2.209^ denota 5%; e	-1.288^* * denota 10%.
		(1.334)	(1.004)	(0.876)	(0.664)	(0.873)	(0.733)	(0.859)	(0.844)	(0.689)
		[-1.822]	[-2.139]	[-2.970]	[-1.973]	[-2.443]	[-1.746]	[-3.017]	[-2.617]	[-1.869]
ir (-5)			-0.716^* * denota 10%.	-1.568^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.040^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.351^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.046^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.312^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.146^* ***** denota 1%;	-1.060^* ***** denota 1%;
			(0.427)	(0.282)	(0.260)	(0.285)	(0.285)	(0.283)	(0.263)	(0.266)
			[-1.677]	[-5.554]	[-4.007]	[-4.739]	[-3.665]	[-4.642]	[-4.362]	[-3.990]
fri				18.729^ denota 5%; e		16.262^* * denota 10%.
				(7.577)		(8.231)
				[2.472]		[1.976]
fri_2								25.943^ denota 5%; e	25.617^ denota 5%; e
								(10.363)	(10.939)
								[2.503]	[2.342]
dsp					0.552^* ***** denota 1%;	0.411^* * denota 10%.			0.429^ denota 5%; e
					(0.193)	(0.212)			(0.210)
					[2.851]	[1.937]			[2.040]
fri*dsp							5.327^* ***** denota 1%;
							(1.816)
							[2.934]
fri_2*dsp										1.949^* ***** denota 1%;
										(0.698)
										[2.794]
infr	0.004^* * denota 10%.	0.009^* ***** denota 1%;	0.007^* ***** denota 1%;	0.004^* ***** denota 1%;	0.004^* ***** denota 1%;	0.004^* ***** denota 1%;	0.004^* ***** denota 1%;	0.004^* ***** denota 1%;	0.004^* ***** denota 1%;	0.004^* ***** denota 1%;
	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
	[1.718]	[5.788]	[6.372]	[6.443]	[7.835]	[7.126]	[7.982]	[6.154]	[6.689]	[8.040]
subp	-23.651^* ***** denota 1%;	-10.085^ denota 5%; e	-13.468^* ***** denota 1%;	-11.151^* ***** denota 1%;	-10.656^* ***** denota 1%;	-10.053^* ***** denota 1%;	-7.810^* ***** denota 1%;	-12.226^* ***** denota 1%;	-11.011^* ***** denota 1%;	-9.749^* ***** denota 1%;
	(7.049)	(5.004)	(3.485)	(2.482)	(2.436)	(2.535)	(2.612)	(2.440)	(2.413)	(2.478)
	[-3.355]	[-2.016]	[-3.865]	[-4.492]	[-4.374]	[-3.965]	[-2.990]	[-5.011]	[-4.563]	[-3.935]

R²	0.28	0.80	0.85	0.86	0.87	0.86	0.87	0.86	0.86	0.87
R² ajustado	0.25	0.79	0.83	0.84	0.85	0.84	0.86	0.84	0.84	0.86
estatísitca J	8.35	8.76	11.77	15.03	16.29	14.29	17.31	14.81	13.65	16.81
estatísitca J (p-valor)	0.50	0.27	0.30	0.89	0.84	0.89	0.79	0.90	0.91	0.82
Rank (número de instrumentos)	14	14	18	32	32	32	32	32	32	32

	MQO			MMG
Regressores	(21)nw	(22)nw	(23)nw	(21)nw	(22)nw	(23)nw
c	5.219	3.985	13.138	-27.086	-0.574	0.111
	(18.618)	(14.333)	(11.273)	(23.323)	(25.226)	(16.480)
	[0.280]	[0.278]	[1.165]	[-1.161]	[-0.023]	[0.007]
ici (-3)	0.151^* ***** denota 1%;	0.218^* ***** denota 1%;	0.143^* ***** denota 1%;	0.147^* ***** denota 1%;	0.206^* ***** denota 1%;	0.097^ denota 5%; e
	(0.036)	(0.0182)	(0.031)	(0.040)	(0.031)	(0.043)
	[4.225]	[12.004]	[4.607]	[3.633]	[6.616]	[2.262]
gap (-2)	78.701^* ***** denota 1%;	60.716^* ***** denota 1%;	73.132^* ***** denota 1%;	112.109^* ***** denota 1%;	67.423^ denota 5%; e	93.555^* ***** denota 1%;
	(19.216)	(15.358)	(15.472)	(27.030)	(28.983)	(23.626)
	[4.096]	[3.954]	[4.727]	[4.148]	[2.326]	[3.960]
cred (-3)		0.286^* ***** denota 1%;	0.147^ denota 5%; e		0.269^* ***** denota 1%;	0.117^* * denota 10%.
		(0.029)	(0.069)		(0.043)	(0.063)
		[9.883]	[2.119]		[6.255]	[1.851]
ir_r (-1)			-0.480^ denota 5%; e			-0.564^* ***** denota 1%;
			(0.215)			(0.180)
			[-2.229]			[-3.133]
tc (-4)			-2.746^ denota 5%; e			-3.211^* ***** denota 1%;
			(1.085)			(1.108)
			[-2.532]			[-2.899]
subp	-9.596^* ***** denota 1%;	-8.408^ denota 5%; e	-7.932^ denota 5%; e	-17.646^* ***** denota 1%;	-15.860^* ***** denota 1%;	-9.528^* ***** denota 1%;
	(3.241)	(3.242)	(3.096)	(1.829)	(1.808)	(1.915)
	[-2.961]	[-2.593]	[-2.562]	[-9.649]	[-8.775]	[-4.975]

R²	0.59	0.75	0.77	0.44	0.59	0.75
R² ajustado	0.58	0.74	0.75	0.42	0.57	0.73
estatística F	43.82	67.28	47.31
P-valor (estatística F)	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ramsey reset (1)	3.85	0.83	1.20
Prob (Ramsey)	0.00	0.41	0.23
Jarque Bera	20.32	261.24	308.89
Prob(Jarque Bera)	0.00	0.00	0.00
estatísitca J				11.36	7.02	8.89
estatísitca J (p-valor)				0.12	0.22	0.18
Rank (número de instrumentos)				11	10	13

	ADF				PP				KPSS
Séries	Lag	I/T	Teste	1%	Band	I/T	Teste	1%	Band	I/T	Teste	10%
ici	2	I	-1.994	-3.501	2		-0.605	-2.589	6	I/T	0.099	0.119
d_ici	1		-6.385	-2.590	11		-3.990	-2.590

infr	12	I/T	-3.261	-4.071	4	I	-3.330	-3.500	6	I/T	0.086	0.119
d_infr	12		-2.445	-2.593	14		-7.730	-2.590
d_d_i nfr	10		-10.839	-2.593

cred	0	I	-1.948	-3.500	3	I	-1.955	-3.500	7	I/T	0.205	0.119
d_cred	0	I/T	-9.703	-4.058	3	I/T	-9.703	-4.058	4	I	0.302	0.347

dsp	0	I/T	-10.138	-4.056	5	I/T	-10.114	-4.056	5	I/T	0.143	0.119
d_dsp									5	I	0.133	0.347

tc	0		0.517	-2.589	4		0.345	-2.589	7	I/T	0.222	0.119
d_tc	0		-8.236	-2.590	3		-8.340	-2.590	4	I	0.233	0.347

e_igp	1	I/T	-3.662	-4.058	6	I	-2.757	-3.500	6	I/T	0.054	0.119
d_e_igp	1		-8.286	-2.590	15		-9.107	-2.590

e_ipc	1	I/T	-3.338	-4.058	3	I/T	-2.993	-4.056	6	I/T	0.045	0.119
d_e_i pc	0		-8.043	-2.590	11		-7.905	-2.590

fri	0		-1.416	-2.589	4		-1.543	-2.589	7	I	0.145	0.347
d_fri	0		-9.000	-2.590	4		-9.063	-2.590

fri_2	0		-1.100	-2.589	5		-0.991	-2.589	7	I	0.134	0.347
d_fri_2	0		-7.835	-2.590	5		-8.059	-2.590

gap	3	I	-3.271	-3.502	7	I	-4.639	-3.500	7	I	0.071	0.347
d_gap	2		-4.974	-2.590

igp	1	I	-2.969	-3.501	6		-1.188	-2.589	7	I	0.053	0.347
di_gp	0		-4.622	-2.590	3		-4.535	-2.590

ipc	1	I	-2.877	-3.501	5	I	-2.317	-3.500	7	I/T	0.078	0.216
d_ipc	0		-5.424	-2.590	2		-5.410	-2.590

ir_r	1	I	-2.126	-3.501	6		-1.377	-2.589	7	I/T	0.083	0.119
d_ir_r	0		-4.972	-2.590	0		-4.972	-2.590

prod	0	I	-2.513	-3.500	3	I	-2.713	-3.500	6	I/T	0.085	0.119
d_prod	0		-9.983	-2.590	3		-9.989	-2.590

ir	1	I	-3.017	-3.501	6		-0.596	-2.596	7	I/T	0.079	0.119
d_ir	0		-2.835	-2.590	5		-3.055	-2.590

ye	1	I/T	-2.863	-4.058	2	I/T	-4.465	-4.056	6	I/T	0.275	0.119
d_ye	0		-16.413	-2.590					69	I	0.414	0.347

Lag	Eq. (6)		Lag	Eq. (9)		Lag	Eq. (16)
	com constante	sem constante		com constante	sem constante		com constante	sem constante
	SIC	SIC		SIC	SIC		SIC	SIC
0	28.14382		0	27.42405		0	32.12224
1	17.51093*	17.97702*	1	16.54945*	17.02631*	1	21.35414*	21.80871*
2	19.13058	19.07084	2	18.04461	18.02459	2	22.50333	22.56088
3	21.03763	20.96442	3	19.97314	19.92967	3	24.67868	24.66792
4	23.05638	23.00672	4	22.05481	22.07378	4	27.01558	26.95678
5	24.83946	24.88190	5	24.13690	24.21794	5	28.24885	28.36961
6	26.47070	26.44766	6	25.84996	25.83701	6	29.76120	30.00948
7	26.34326	26.39181	7	25.45552	25.52521	7	29.45583	29.82812
8	25.27065	26.26088	8	24.85941	25.52107	8	27.71495	28.82124

Lag	Eq. (19)		Lag	Eq.(23)
	com constante	sem constante		com constante	sem constante
	SIC	SIC		SIC	SIC
0	31.23120		0	13.62905
1	20.24736*	20.68901*	1	2.787011*	3.221485*
2	21.25494	21.35203	2	3.847049	4.000833
3	23.42883	23.46176	3	4.596145	4.536637
4	25.82935	25.81841	4	5.883608	6.014799
5	27.21490	27.40473	5	7.433291	7.540883
6	28.53668	28.80966	6	8.752400	8.689643
7	28.28602	28.65933	7	9.906823	9.998405
8	26.84916	28.22894	8	10.69825	10.81699

Tabela A-3 Testes de cointegração de Johansen – equações (6), (9), (16) e (19).

Data Trend:	None	None	Linear	Linear	Quadratic
TestType	No Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept
	No Trend	No Trend	No Trend	Trend	Trend
Trace	4	5	5	5	5
Max-Eig	4	5	5	5	5
Data Trend:	None	None	Linear	Linear	Quadratic
Rank or	No Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept
No. of CEs	No Trend	No Trend	No Trend	Trend	Trend
Schwarz Criteria by Rank (rows) and Model (columns)
0	18.10048	18.10048	18.47391	18.47391	18.81032
1	17.51777	17.55126	17.87743	17.92483	18.21952
2	17.33046^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	17.38320	17.66187	17.67668	17.92834
3	17.55162	17.39160	17.62272	17.67996	17.89848
4	17.94214	17.70604	17.89014	17.79432	17.96934
5	18.60616	18.14474	18.28134	18.19792	18.32833
6	19.33663	18.86025	18.94995	18.84931	18.93251
7	20.10096	19.64598	19.70997	19.65156	19.68746
8	20.92827	20.45827	20.48899	20.47027	20.46719
9	21.78350	21.34259	21.34259	21.31443	21.31443
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized		Trace	0.05
No. of CE(s)	Eigenvalue	Statistic	Critical Value	Prob.^ MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
None ^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	0.762723	385.8544	179.5098	0.0000
At most 1 ^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	0.647646	247.7559	143.6691	0.0000
At most 2 ^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	0.469882	147.6165	111.7805	0.0000
At most 3 ^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	0.372052	86.68967	83.93712	0.0312
At most 4	0.174520	42.02101	60.06141	0.6143
At most 5	0.117811	23.60912	40.17493	0.7283
At most 6	0.087430	11.57566	24.27596	0.7397
At most 7	0.028100	2.792526	12.32090	0.8728
At most 8	0.000587	0.056324	4.129906	0.8457

Data Trend:	None	None	Linear	Linear	Quadratic
Test Type	No Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept
	No Trend	No Trend	No Trend	Trend	Trend
Trace	3	5	5	5	5
Max-Eig	4	5	5	5	5
Data Trend:	None	None	Linear	Linear	Quadratic
Rank or	No Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept
No. of CEs	No Trend	No Trend	No Trend	Trend	Trend
Schwarz Criteria by Rank (rows) and Model (columns)
0	17.05060	17.05060	17.41418	17.41418	17.73635
1	16.48636	16.50593	16.82208	16.86115	17.14419
2	16.32893 ^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	16.37256	16.64162	16.69062	16.93086
3	16.54558	16.38220	16.60374	16.69641	16.90158
4	16.97867	16.69306	16.86793	16.81133	16.97264
5	17.63045	17.18030	17.30769	17.27840	17.39632
6	18.36856	17.88047	17.96039	17.92768	17.99862
7	19.13776	18.67128	18.72251	18.70449	18.73373
8	19.96091	19.48809	19.50912	19.52831	19.51319
9	20.81405	20.36143	20.36143	20.36818	20.36818
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized		Trace	0.05
No. of CE(s)	Eigenvalue	Statistic	Critical Value	Prob.^ MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
None ^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	0.758299	378.1334	179.5098	0.0000
At most 1 ^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	0.636962	241.8083	143.6691	0.0000
At most 2 ^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	0.472267	144.5366	111.7805	0.0001
At most 3	0.344739	83.17673	83.93712	0.0567
At most 4	0.184569	42.59546	60.06141	0.5868
At most 5	0.111045	23.00782	40.17493	0.7612
At most 6	0.082967	11.70777	24.27596	0.7291
At most 7	0.032139	3.393005	12.32090	0.7963
At most 8	0.002673	0.256997	4.129906	0.6718

Data Trend:	None	None	Linear	Linear	Quadratic
Test Type	No Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept
	No Trend	No Trend	No Trend	Trend	Trend
Trace	3	4	4	5	5
Max-Eig	4	5	5	5	5
Data Trend:	None	None	Linear	Linear	Quadratic
Rank or	No Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept
No. of CEs	No Trend	No Trend	No Trend	Trend	Trend
Schwarz Criteria by Rank (rows) and Model (columns)
0	21.87302	21.87302	22.28044	22.28044	22.62064
1	21.13511	21.11688	21.47752	21.52054	21.82126
2	20.98105^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	21.00887	21.32248	21.34940	21.60259
3	21.15598	21.07011	21.33619	21.39525	21.61597
4	21.58908	21.30698	21.52627	21.54842	21.72264
5	22.25364	21.78804	21.96085	21.91589	22.04332
6	23.04395	22.52488	22.65184	22.62574	22.71234
7	23.85693	23.36716	23.45546	23.36761	23.42356
8	24.68448	24.22844	24.26988	24.22009	24.24309
9	25.53935	25.11652	25.11652	25.09485	25.09485
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized		Trace	0.05
No. of CE(s)	Eigenvalue	Statistic	Critical Value	Prob.^ MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
None ^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	0.796832	387.4566	179.5098	0.0000
At most 1 ^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	0.635735	234.4595	143.6691	0.0000
At most 2 ^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	0.493831	137.5116	111.7805	0.0004
At most 3	0.344739	72.14667	83.93712	0.2623
At most 4	0.174073	31.56535	60.06141	0.9594
At most 5	0.063409	13.20540	40.17493	0.9977
At most 6	0.041934	6.916622	24.27596	0.9793
At most 7	0.027868	2.804141	12.32090	0.8715
At most 8	0.000945	0.090782	4.129906	0.8045

Data Trend:	None	None	Linear	Linear	Quadratic
Test Type	No Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept
	No Trend	No Trend	No Trend	Trend	Trend
Trace	3	4	4	5	5
Max-Eig	4	5	5	5	5
Data Trend:	None	None	Linear	Linear	Quadratic
Rank or	No Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept
No. of CEs	No Trend	No Trend	No Trend	Trend	Trend
Schwarz Criteria by Rank (rows) and Model (columns)
0	20.77782	20.77782	21.17630	21.17630	21.50513
1	19.97100	19.94318	20.29485	20.33821	20.62994
2	19.82900^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	19.84798	20.15353	20.21955	20.46385
3	19.99975	19.93220	20.19022	20.28114	20.49197
4	20.45881	20.16340	20.37525	20.43393	20.59810
5	21.12652	20.67006	20.83629	20.87101	20.98942
6	21.90863	21.40779	21.52742	21.55474	21.64685
7	22.71890	22.24577	22.32553	22.29342	22.35096
8	23.55915	23.10675	23.14026	23.14482	23.16965
9	24.41133	23.99606	23.99606	24.02429	24.02429
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized		Trace	0.05
No. of CE(s)	Eigenvalue	Statistic	Critical Value	Prob.^ MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
None ^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	0.810362	390.6074	179.5098	0.0000
At most 1 ^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	0.631315	230.9939	143.6691	0.0000
At most 2 ^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	0.495943	135.2040	111.7805	0.0007
At most 3	0.327503	69.43767	83.93712	0.3496
At most 4	0.171473	31.34898	60.06141	0.9623
At most 5	0.071050	13.29086	40.17493	0.9975
At most 6	0.044529	6.215596	24.27596	0.9897
At most 7	0.015445	1.842686	12.32090	0.9617
At most 8	0.003623	0.348418	4.129906	0.6178

E. (23)
Data Trend:	None	None	Linear	Linear	Quadratic
Test Type	No Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept
	No Trend	No Trend	No Trend	Trend	Trend
Trace	3	3	3	3	4
Max-Eig	2	3	3	3	3
Data Trend:	None	None	Linear	Linear	Quadratic
Rank or	No Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept	Intercept
No. of CEs	No Trend	No Trend	No Trend	Trend	Trend
Schwarz Criteria by Rank (rows) and Model (columns)
0	2.994580	2.994580	3.145829	3.145829	3.385212
1	2.436353	2.445043	2.551395	2.597244	2.827909
2	2.573940	2.201755^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	2.264384	2.345732	2.528881
3	2.924011	2.463373	2.523790	2.594649	2.730862
4	3.405800	2.906322	2.919934	3.000299	3.089742
5	3.966077	3.436258	3.511972	3.484282	3.526806
6	4.576513	4.088308	4.122893	4.124732	4.137587
7	5.231292	4.761043	4.761043	4.784231	4.784231
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized		Trace	0.05
No. of CE(s)	Eigenvalue	Statistic	Critical Value	Prob.^ MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
None ^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	0.717115	309.6761	134.6780	0.0000
Alt most 1 ^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	0.615752	188.4553	103.8473	0.0000
Alt most 2 ^* * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level	0.363366	96.63444	76.97277	0.0008
Alt most 3	0.236797	53.28461	54.07904	0.0588
Alt most 4	0.167435	27.34245	35.19275	0.2719
Alt most 5	0.059298	9.751087	20.26184	0.6643
Alt most 6	0.039638	3.882670	9.164546	0.4299

TESTES	(1)nw	(2)nw	(3)nw	(4)nw	(5)nw	(6)nw	(7)	(8)nw	(9)nw	(10)nw
Durbin-Watson (DW)	0.528294	1.446237	1.595795	1.442075	1.547982	1.386832	1.661013	1.473155	1.429293	1.576557
Teste LM (1)	114.8337	7.735840	4.131757	8.654433	5.225320	10.79306	3.028438	7.497013	9.124454	4.610943
Prob LM (1)	0.0000	0.0067	0.0453	0.0042	0.0248	0.0015	0.0856	0.0076	0.0034	0.0347
Teste LM (2)	56.83169	3.826911	2.444545	5.546076	3.239537	7.086990	1.956057	4.318187	5.400559	2.923509
Prob LM (2)	0.0000	0.0256	0.0931	0.0055	0.0443	0.0015	0.1480	0.0165	0.0063	0.0594
Teste ARCH (1)	25.50223	4.932279	7.406538	5.829957	0.633685	1.135741	0.102524	5.687977	0.911639	0.276670
Prob ARCH (1)	0.0000	0.0288	0.0078	0.0178	0.4281	0.2894	0.7496	0.0192	0.3423	0.6002
Teste ARCH (2)	17.33813	7.126863	9.033315	11.14121	6.653584	9.841368	5.015470	9.635589	7.905880	6.110309
Prob ARCH (2)	0.0000	0.0013	0.0003	0.0000	0.0020	0.0001	0.0087	0.0002	0.0007	0.0033

TESTES	(11)nw	(12)nw	(13)nw	(14)w	(15)nw	(16)	(17)	(18)w	(19)nw	(20)
Durbin-Watson	0.340738	1.455253	1.596586	1.616917	1.529535	1.610023	1.625127	1.564444	1.535304	1.549198
Teste LM (1)	217.9061	7.628594	3.336764	3.158531	4.700660	3.356451	2.769467	4.301297	5.040928	4.218406
Prob LM (1)	0.0000	0.0070	0.0713	0.0792	0.0330	0.0706	0.0999	0.0412	0.0275	0.0432
Teste LM (2)	111.2180	4.493360	1.697001	1.635087	2.391231	1.719688	1.409592	2.281084	2.649436	2.145097
Prob LM (2)	0.0000	0.0140	0.1896	0.2013	0.0979	0.1857	0.2502	0.1087	0.0769	0.1237
Teste ARCH (1)	121.5181	2.622189	9.074605	8.911521	3.032232	1.954876	1.375783	9.411736	2.929560	2.292711
Prob ARCH (1)	0.0000	0.1088	0.0034	0.0037	0.0851	0.1655	0.2440	0.0029	0.0905	0.1335
Teste ARCH (2)	69.66104	8.564111	5.619183	5.478769	1.615201	0.918745	0.819453	5.972318	1.539194	1.138280
Prob ARCH (2)	0.0000	0.0004	0.0051	0.0057	0.2048	0.4029	0.4440	0.0037	0.2203	0.3251

TESTES	(21)nw	(22)nw	(23)nw
Durbin-Watson	0.860942	1.272046	1.395509
Teste LM (1)	43.33973	14.63029	9.655970
Prob LM (1)	0.0000	0.0002	0.0026
Teste LM (2)	23.03454	7.629104	5.079678
Prob LM (2)	0.0000	0.0009	0.0083
Teste ARCH (1)	1.949192	1.942578	1.179357
Prob ARCH (1)	0.1661	0.1667	0.2804
Teste ARCH (2)	7.839503	4.059511	4.141732
Prob ARCH (2)	0.0007	0.0206	0.0191

[TFN01] Nota: “nw” indica matriz de correção de Newey-West e “w” indica matriz de correção de White. Erros padrão entre parênteses e estatística t entre colchetes.

[TFN02] Níveis de significância:

[TFN03] ^***
denota 1%;

[TFN04] ^**
denota 5%; e

[TFN05] ^*
denota 10%.

(1)	ici(-1 to -3), gap_ibc(-3), infl_ipca(-4 to -6), expect_infl_ipca(-1 to -3), selic(-4 to -5), ir_real(0 to -1)
(2)	ici(-1 to -3), gap_ibc(-3 to -4), infl_ipca(-4 to -6), expect_infl_ipca(-2 to -3), selic(-4 to -6), ir_real(0 to -1)
(3)	ici(-1 to -3), gap_ibc(-3 to -4), infl_ipca(-4 to -6), expect_infl_ipca(-2 to -3), selic(-6 to -8), ir_real(0 to -1)
(4)	ici(-1), infl_ipca(-4 to -12), ye(-2), desv_sup(-1 to -8), expect_infl_ipca(-2 to -10), selic(-6), ir_real(0 to -1)
(5)	ici(-1 to -3), gap_ibc(-3 to -4), infl_ipca(-4 to -6), expect_infl_ipca(-2 to -3), selic(-4 to -6), ir_real(0 to -1)
(6)	ici(-1 to -3), gap_ibc(-3 to -4), infl_ipca(-4 to -6), expect_infl_ipca(-2 to -3), selic(-6 to -8), ir_real(0 to -1)
(7)	ici(-1), infl_ipca(-4 to -12), ye(-2), desv_sup(-1 to -8), expect_infl_ipca(-2 to -10), selic(-6), ir_real(0 to -1
(8)	ici(-1), infl_ipca(-4 to -12), ye(-2), desv_sup(-1 to -8), expect_infl_ipca(-2 to -10), selic(-6), ir_real(0 to -1
(9)	ici(-1), infl_ipca(-4 to -12), ye(-2), desv_sup(-1 to -7), expect_infl_ipca(-2 to -10), selic(-6), ir_real(0 to -1)
(10)	ici(-1), infl_ipca(-4 to -12), ye(-2), desv_sup(-1 to -8), expect_infl_ipca(-2 to -10), selic(-6), ir_real(0 to -1

(11)	ici(-1), gap_ibc(-3), infl_igpm(-4), selic(-6 to -8), expect_infl_igpm(-2 to -8)
(12)	ici(-1), gap_ibc(-3), infl_igpm(-4), selic(-6 to -8), expect_infl_igpm(-2 to -8)
(13)	ici(-1 to -3), gap_ibc(-3), infl_igpm(-4 to -5), selic(-6 to -7), expect_infl_igpm(-2 to -8)
(14)	ici(-1), infl_igpm(-4 to -12), ye(-2), desv_sup(-1 to -8), selic(-6), expect_infl_igpm(-2 to -10), ir_real(0 to -1)
(15)	ici(-1), infl_igpm(-4 to -12), ye(-2), desv_sup(-1 to -8), selic(-6), expect_infl_igpm(-2 to -10), ir_real(0 to -1)
(16)	ici(-1), infl_igpm(-4 to -12), ye(-2), desv_sup(-1 to -8), selic(-6), expect_infl_igpm(-2 to -10), ir_real(0 to -1)
(17)	ici(-1), infl_igpm(-4 to -12), ye(-2), desv_sup(-1 to -8), selic(-6), expect_infl_igpm(-2 to -10), ir_real(0 to -1)
(18)	ici(-1), infl_igpm(-4 to -12), ye(-2), desv_sup(-1 to -8), selic(-6), expect_infl_igpm(-2 to -10), ir_real(0 to -1)
(19)	ici(-1), infl_igpm(-4 to -12), ye(-2), desv_sup(-1 to -8), selic(-6), expect_infl_igpm(-2 to -10), ir_real(0 to -1)
(20)	ici(-1), infl_igpm(-4 to -12), ye(-2), desv_sup(-1 to -8), selic(-6), expect_infl_igpm(-2 to -10), ir_real(0 to -1)

(21)	prod_ind_des(-1 to -3), ici(-4 to -6), gap_ibc(-3 to -6)
(22)	prod_ind_des(-1 to -2), ici(-4 to -5), gap_ibc(-3 to -5), credit(-4 to -5)
(23)	prod_ind_des(-1), ici(-4 to -5), gap_ibc(-3 to -5), credit(-4), ir_real(-2 to -4), exch(-5 to -6)