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Revista Brasileira de Economia

versão impressa ISSN 0034-7140versão On-line ISSN 1806-9134


MELO, Lucas Braga de  e  RESENDE FILHO, Moisés de Andrade. Determinantes do Risco de Crédito Rural no Brasil: Uma Crítica às Renegociações da Dívida Rural. Rev. Bras. Econ. [online]. 2017, vol.71, n.1, pp.67-91. ISSN 0034-7140.

We identify the determinants of default rate in the National Rural Credit System of Brazil using the ARDL bounds testing approach for cointegration by Pesaran et al. (2001), and Granger causality tests by Toda & Yamamoto (1995 ). The results showed that the reference interested rate, foreign sector and business cycles do not affect default rate, higher prices paid per prices received by the agricultural sector increases default rate, political processes of rural debt renegotiation induce higher debt levels, moral hazard and adverse selection, and the relation default rate and its determinants returns to long run equilibrium within 19 days.

Palavras-chave : Default Rate; Rural Credit; ARLD Bounds Testing Approach; Cointegration; Moral Hazard; Adverse Selection.

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