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Article • Rev. Bras. Econ. 74 (1) • Jan-Mar 2020 • https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20200006 copy

Economic Growth Channels From Human Capital: A Dynamic Panel Analysis for Brazil

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to test the effect of human capital on Brazilian economic growth through the factor accumulation channel and the total factor productivity channel. We used new human capital measures, covering the period from 1996 to 2015 and employed the two-step SYS-GMM method, with standard finite sample error correction and principal components analysis for the control of the proliferation of instruments. The results show that human capital affects economic growth through both individually tested channels. Also, both basic and advanced human capital have a positive impact on growth through the total factor productivity channel.

Keywords:
Human capital; economic growth GMM model; dynamic panel data

Cod	Description	Source
L	Economically active population	PNAD
y	Gross domestic product ÷ L	IBGE
txk	Per capita physical capital growth	IBGE
HC_bh	Average salaries of primary and secondary school graduates ÷ L	PNAD
HC_ah	Average salaries of graduates of higher education ÷ L	PNAD
HC	All levels aggregated ÷ L	PNAD
Gec	expenditure whith education and culture	IPEA
Popgr	Population growth	IBGE
Nº Prof. Bh	Number of teachers in basic education	INEP
Nº Prof. Ah	Number of teachers in higher education	INEP
D_Crisis	Crisis Dummy: • 1997, Crisis of the Asian Giants • 1998, Ruble Crisis • 2001-2002, Argentine Crisis • 2008-2009, Great Recession • 2009-2010, Debt crisis in Europe

Variable	Obs	Mean	Std. Dev	Min	Max
ln y	540	3.281146	0.5004625	2.137538	4.881639
txk	540	-5.385681	0.5348327	-6.683965	-3.85141
Popgr	513	0.0159841	0.0161496	-0.0695467	0.0869195
ln(Gec)	540	20.96891	0.9650627	18.89729	23.92008
ln(HC)	540	-13.1603	1.221711	-15.84615	-9.536788
Tx(HC)	513	-0.0569024	0.1283119	-0.4337797	0.698482
ln(HC_bh)	540	-13.74001	1.211404	-16.30259	-9.896704
Tx(HC_ah)	513	1.269973	3.041304	-0.9857563	17.71353
ln(HC_ah)	540	-12.53861	1.233833	-15.29634	-9.034603
Tx(HC_bh)	513	1.185477	2.882731	-0.9886244	16.25195
D_Cris	540	0.35	0.4774119	0	1
Nº Prof. Bh	540	82,311.36	91,034.72	3654	533,040
Nº Prof. Ah	540	10,870.52	15,305.2	146	89,979

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
Tx(HC)	0.06** (0.03)		0.01 (0.04)
ln(HC)		0.08*** (0.03)	0.09** (0.04)
Tx(HC_bh)				0.00 (0.00)		0.00 (0.00)
ln(HC_ah)					0.08*** (0.03)	0.05** (0.02)
Tx(HC_ah)							0.00 (0.00)		0.00 (0.00)
ln(HC_bh)								0.09*** (0.03)	0.10*** (0.04)
*Transitional Convergence* ln(y_t-1)	-0.45*** (0.04)	-0.48*** (0.04)	-0.48*** (0.04)	-0.36*** (0.05)	-0.48*** (0.04)	-0.40*** (0.05)	-0.44*** (0.06)	-0.47*** (0.04)	-0.44*** (0.06)
*Covariates* txk	0.32*** (0.03)	0.29*** (0.04)	0.28*** (0.04)	0.30*** (0.02)	0.29*** (0.04)	0.27*** (0.03)	0.28*** (0.02)	0.28*** (0.04)	0.22*** (0.04)
ln(Gec)	0.03** (0.02)	0.13*** (0.04)	0.14*** (0.05)	0.02** (0.01)	0.12*** (0.04)	0.08** (0.03)	0.04** (0.02)	0.13*** (0.04)	0.15*** (0.05)
Popgr	0.53* (0.28)	0.21 (0.22)	0.20 (0.24)	0.28 (0.26)	0.23 (0.23)	0.19 (0.27)	0.53 (0.37)	0.21 (0.22)	0.12 (0.26)
D_Crisis	-0.02*** (0.00)	-0.02*** (0.00)	-0.02*** (0.00)	-0.01* (0.01)	-0.02*** (0.00)	-0.01* (0.01)	-0.01 (0.01)	-0.02*** (0.00)	-0.01 (0.01)
Trend	-0.00*** (0.00)	-0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	-0.00*** (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	-0.00 (0.00)	-0.00*** (0.00)	-0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)
Constant	2.54*** (0.37)	1.58*** (0.60)	1.39** (0.63)	2.51*** (0.21)	1.57** (0.63)	1.75*** (0.45)	2.22*** (0.29)	1.60*** (0.55)	0.86 (0.67)
AR(1)	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]
AR(2)	[0.40]	[0.62]	[0.57]	[0.45]	[0.67]	[0.55]	[0.43]	[0.52]	[0.32]
J-Hansen	[0.12]	[0.12]	[0.09]	[0.11]	[0.12]	[0.09]	[0.14]	[0.12]	[0.10]
Nº instruments	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
K-M-O	[0.850]	[0.864]	[0.850]	[0.829]	[0.864]	[0.829]	[0.855]	[0.864]	[0.855]
N	513	513	513	513	513	513	513	513	513

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
Tx(HC)	0.14* (0.07)		0.03 (0.093)
ln(HC)		0.18*** (0.06)	0.19*** (0.07)
Tx(HC_bh)				0.00 (0.00)		0.00 (0.00)
ln(HC_ah)					0.17*** (0.06)	0.13** (0.05)
Tx(HC_ah)							0.00 (0.01)		0.01 (0.04)
ln(HC_bh)								0.18*** (0.06)	0.24*** (0.08)

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
Tx(HC)	0.06* (0.04)		0.04 (0.03)
ln(HC)		0.05*** (0.02)	0.05*** (0.02)
Tx(HC_bh)				0.00 (0.00)		0.00 (0.00)
ln(HC_ah)					0.05*** (0.02)	0.02 (0.02)
Tx(HC_ah)							0.00 (0.00)		0.00 (0.00)
ln(HC_bh)								0.06** (0.03)	0.05** (0.02)
*Transitional Convergence* ln(y_t-1)	-0.29*** (0.03)	-0.36*** (0.04)	-0.36*** (0.04)	-0.27*** (0.04)	-0,36*** (0.04)	-0.32*** (0.05)	-0.31*** (0.04)	-0.36*** (0.04)	-0.37*** (0.05)
*Covariates* txk	0.27*** (0.04)	0.24*** (0.03)	0.25*** (0.03)	0.27*** (0.04)	0.24*** (0.03)	0.27*** (0.04)	0.29*** (0.04)	0.23*** (0.03)	0.26*** (0.04)
ln(Gec)	0.01 (0.01)	0.08*** (0.03)	0.08*** (0.02)	0.00 (0.01)	0.08*** (0.03)	0.04 (0.02)	0.01 (0.01)	0.08** (0.03)	0.08*** (0.03)
Popgr	0.39 (0.36)	0.29 (0.27)	0.36 (0.34)	0.27 (0.33)	0.30 (0.27)	0.27 (0.29)	0.41 (0.38)	0.28 (0.25)	0.34 (0.30)
D_Crisis	-0.01** (0.01)	-0.01** (0.01)	-0.01* (0.01)	-0.01 (0.01)	-0.01** (0.01)	-0.01 (0.01)	-0.01 (0.01)	-0.01** (0.00)	-0.01* (0.01)
Trend	-0.00*** (0.00)	-0.00 (0.00)	-0.00 (0.00)	-0.00*** (0.00)	-0.00 (0.00)	-0.00 (0.00)	-0.00*** (0.00)	-0.00 (0.00)	-0.00 (0.00)
Constant	2.34*** (0.38)	1.47*** (0.43)	1.61*** (0.39)	2.36*** (0.38)	1.52*** (0.41)	2.02*** (0.43)	2.42*** (0.36)	1.45*** (0.46)	1.74*** (0.44)
AR(1)	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]
AR(2)	[0.48]	[0.60]	[0.49]	[0.41]	[0.64]	[0.45]	[0.55]	[0.52]	[0.47]
J-Hansen	[0.05]	[0.11]	[0.06]	[0.05]	[0.10]	[0.06]	[0.05]	[0.12]	[0.06]
Diff-Hansen	[0.43]	[0.61]	[0.37]	[0.84]	[0.66]	[0.74]	[0.69]	[0.63]	[0.83]
Nº instruments	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24
N	513	513	513	513	513	513	513	513	513

	(1)	(2)	(2)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
Tx(HC)	0.06** (0.03)		0.05* (0.03)
ln(HC)		0.04* (0.02)	0.03 (0.02)
Tx(HC_bh)				0.00 (0.00)		0.00 (0.00)
ln(HC_ah)					0.03* (0.02)	0.01 (0.01)
Tx(HC_ah)							0.00 (0.00)		0.00 (0.00)
ln(HC_bh)								0.04** (0.02)	0.02 (0.01)
*Transitional Convergence* ln(y_t-1)	-0.39*** (0.03)	-0.40*** (0.04)	-0.40*** (0.04)	0.40*** (0.04)	-0.39*** (0.04)	-0.40*** (0.04)	-0.37*** (0.03)	-0.39*** (0.04)	-0.38*** (0.03)
*Covariates* txk	0.34*** (0.03)	0.31*** (0.03)	0.33*** (0.03)	0.37*** (0.04)	0.31*** (0.03)	0.36*** (0.04)	0.35*** (0.03)	0.30*** (0.03)	0.34*** (0.03)
ln(Gec)	0.01* (0.01)	0.05** (0.03)	0.04 (0.03)	0.01** (0.00)	0.05* (0.03)	0.02 (0.01)	0.01* (0.00)	0.05** (0.03)	0.02 (0.02)
Popgr	0.25 (0.22)	0.19 (0.23)	0.17 (0.22)	0.20 (0.28)	0.18 (0.23)	0.13 (0.30)	0.16 (0.29)	0.19 (0.23)	0.10 (0.31)
D_Crisis	-0.02*** (0.01)	-0.02*** (0.01)	-0.02*** (0.01)	-0.02*** (0.01)	-0.02*** (0.01)	-0.02*** (0.01)	-0.02** (0.01)	-0.02*** (0.01)	-0.02*** (0.01)
Trend	-0.00*** (0.00)	-0.00* (0.00)	-0.00*** (0.00)	-0.01*** (0.00)	-0.00* (0.00)	-0.00*** (0.00)	-0.00*** (0.00)	-0.00** (0.00)	-0.00*** (0.00)
Constant	2.94*** (0.29)	2.35*** (0.38)	2.62*** (0.45)	3.18*** (0.37)	2.39*** (0.44)	3.05*** (0.40)	3.01*** (0.28)	2.37*** (0.40)	2.85*** (0.35)
AR(1)	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]
AR(2)	[0.50]	[0.67]	[0.55]	[0.53]	[0.70]	[0.56]	[0.45]	[0.62]	[0.43]
J-Hansen	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]
Diff-Hansen	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]
Nº instruments	110	76	111	110	76	111	110	76	111
N	513	513	513	513	513	513	513	513	513

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
Tx(HC)	0.04* (0.03)		-0.01 (0.03)
ln(HC)		0.12*** (0.03)	0.09*** (0.03)
Tx(HC_bh)				-0.00 (0.00)		-0.00 (0.00)
ln(HC_ah)					0.11*** (0.03)	0.07*** (0.02)
Tx(HC_ah)							-0.00 (0.00)		0.00 (0.00)
ln(HC_bh)								0.14*** (0.03)	0.14*** (0.04)
*Transitional Convergence* ln(y_t-1)	-0.54*** (0.04)	-0.60*** (0.05)	-0.58*** (0.05)	-0.53*** (0.06)	-0.60*** (0.05)	-0.56*** (0.05)	-0.44*** (0.05)	-0.60*** (0.06)	-0.60*** (0.06)
*Covariates* txk	0.37*** (0.04)	0.34*** (0.03)	0.37*** (0.04)	0.41*** (0.03)	0.35*** (0.04)	0.39*** (0.04)	0.38*** (0.05)	0.31*** (0.04)	0.31*** (0.06)
ln(Gec)	0.04*** (0.01)	0.17*** (0.03)	0.14*** (0.04)	0.03*** (0.01)	0.16*** (0.03)	0.11*** (0.03)	0.04*** (0.01)	0.19*** (0.04)	0.20*** (0.06)
Popgr	0.57** (0.25)	0.15 (0.21)	0.12 (0.20)	0.56** (0.28)	0.18 (0.21)	0.22 (0.34)	0.61** (0.26)	0.14 (0.20)	0.31 (0.37)
D_Crisis	-0.02*** (0.00)	-0.03*** (0.01)	-0.03*** (0.00)	-0.03*** (0.00)	-0.03*** (0.00)	-0.03*** (0.01)	-0.03*** (0.01)	-0.02*** (0.00)	-0.02*** (0.01)
Trend	-0.00*** (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	-0.00 (0.00)	-0.01*** (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	-0.00 (0.00)	-0.00*** (0.00)	-0.00 (0.00)	-0.00 (0.00)
Constant	3.00*** (0.48)	1.73*** (0.49)	2.29*** (0.60)	3.50*** (0.36)	1.82*** (0.58)	2.64*** (0.44)	3.03*** (0.55)	1.46** (0.59)	1.31 (0.96)
AR(1)	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]	[0.00]
AR(2)	[0.42]	[0.68]	[0.77]	[0.72]	[0.73]	[0.98]	[0.54]	[0.51]	[0.47]
J-Hansen	[1.00]	[0.91]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[0.91]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[0.92]	[1.00]
Diff-Hansen	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[1.00]	[0.99]
Nº instruments	64	45	65	64	45	65	64	45	65
N	513	513	513	513	513	513	513	513	513

Fundação Getúlio Vargas Praia de Botafogo, 190 11º andar, 22253-900 Rio de Janeiro RJ Brazil, Tel.: +55 21 3799-5831 , Fax: +55 21 2553-8821 - Rio de Janeiro - RJ - Brazil
E-mail: rbe@fgv.br

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