Aging demographic profile in municipalities in the state of Pará, Brazil

Ecological study with secondary demographic, socioeconomic and health data from the 144 municipalities of the state of Pará, Brazil. Data were treated with segmentation analysis, the Mann-Whitney U test and logistic regression models, with a significance level of p ≤ 0.05.

Results:

Segmentation analysis provided a single variable to describe aging in the municipalities of Pará and originated two clusters, the high and low aging rate ones, with 104 (72.22%) and 40 (27.78%) municipalities in each, respectively. The fitted model revealed an association between aging and per capita income (p = 0.021), vulnerability to poverty (p = 0.003), rich to poor ratio (p = 0.012) and density of people (p = 0.019).

Conclusion:

There is heterogeneity in the population aging among the municipalities of Pará, mainly regarding socioeconomic conditions and number of people living in the municipalities.

Descriptors:
Demographic Aging; Aged; Social Inequity; Social Vulnerability; Health Policy

Variables	Minimum value	Mean	Standard deviation	Median	Maximum value
Socioeconomic conditions
HDI^* * human development index;	0.42	0.58	0.06	0.58	0.75
Theil index	0.33	0.57	0.10	0.56	0.98
GINI index	0.42	0.56	0.05	0.56	0.70
Per capita income (R$)	130.40	304.97	125.71	279.46	853.82
People vulnerable to poverty (%)	12.03	42.81	13.79	44.03	73.43
20% richest/40% poorest ratio	6.41	15.30	7.08	13.68	54.87
Illiteracy rate (%)	3.99	21.97	8.02	21.74	47.26
Housing conditions
Population coverage of piped water (%)	21.06	79.13	16.29	84.44	96.19
Population coverage of sewage system (%)	6.68	44.80	17.77	44.83	86.84
Population coverage of waste collection (%)	36.72	84.11	13.29	88.13	100.00
Population coverage of electricity (%)	62.55	87.84	10.06	90.35	99.97
Number of people per residence	26.63	51.19	12.79	48.97	86.43
Health indicators
Child mortality (/1000 live births)	14.90	22.84	3.46	22.90	31.90
Fertility rate^ average annual number of children born alive per woman per year.	1.69	2.88	0.47	2.88	4.12
Life expectancy at birth (years)	68.41	71.46	1.27	71.42	74.66
Family Health Strategy coverage (%)	0.00	66.88	28.79	65.04	100.00
Aging indicators
Elderly dependence ratio	7.16	10.71	1.72	10.44	15.76
Aging index	22.09	24.74	21.37	24.71	27.92
Sex ratio (60 years old and older)	67.21	118.54	23.11	112.54	190.88

Variables	Aging		p^ Mann-Whitney U test; value
	High	Low
	(n=104)	(n=40)
Socioeconomic conditions
HDI^* * human development index;	85.41	36.24	<0.001
Theil index	67.24	84.69	0.025
GINI index	65.16	90.23	0.001
Per capita income (R$)	73.53	67.92	0.471
People vulnerable to poverty (%)	54.94	117.49	<0.001
20% richest/40% poorest ratio	62.51	97.29	<0.001
Illiteracy rate (%)	70.08	77.12	0.366
Housing conditions
Population coverage of piped water (%)	87.39	30.95	<0.001
Population coverage of sewage system (%)	87.13	31.65	<0.001
Population coverage of waste collection (%)	77.59	57.09	0.008
Population coverage of electricity (%)	85.70	35.47	<0.001
Number of people per residence	55.56	115.85	<0.001
Health indicators
Fertility rate^ Mann-Whitney U test;	68.62	81.01	0.111
Life expectancy at birth (years)	76.41	60.23	0.037
Child mortality (/1000 live births)	67.59	83.77	0.037
Family Health Strategy coverage (%)	79.04	53.23	0.001

Variables	Model 1			Model 2			Model 3
Variables	OR	CI95%	p value	OR	CI95%	p value	OR	CI95%	p value
Socioeconomic conditions
HDI	2.91	1.60-4.37	0.800	1.47	1.05-5.00	0.201	2.96	1.01-3.43	0.178
Theil index	2.35	1.05-2.99	0.702	0.26	0.10-1.02	0.906	0.26	0.05-1.02	0.926
GINI index	0.80	0.50-2.00	0.506	2.00	0.98-4.92	0.080	1.27	0.05-3.19	0.060
Per capita income	1.01	1.00-1.01	0.065	1.01	1.00-1.02	0.023	1.01	1.00-1.02	0.021
People vulnerable to poverty	1.42	1.21-1.67	0.000	1.42	1.14-1.77	0.002	1.62	1.18-2.23	0.003
Rich/poor ratio	0.88	0.75-1.02	0.086	0.73	0.58-0.93	0.010	0.65	0.47-0.91	0.012
Illiteracy rate	1.08	0.98-1.19	0.032	1.10	0.96-1.27	0.162	1.12	0.95-1.33	0.185
Housing conditions
Piped water coverage				1.00	0.91-1.10	0.956	1.01	0.90-1.12	0.915
Sewage system coverage				0.94	0.83-1.07	0.332	0.91	0.78-1.07	0.273
Waste collection coverage				0.96	0.91-1.02	0.208	0.94	0.88-1.01	0.109
Electricity coverage				0.99	0.88-1.12	0.882	0.97	0.84-1.12	0.677
Density of people				1.21	1.03-1.41	0.017	1.27	1.04-1.55	0.019
Health indicators
Child mortality							2.32	1.29-2.82	0.136
Fertility rate							1.06	0.08-4.64	0.968
Life expectancy at birth							0.51	2.22-1.55	0.134
Family Health Strategy coverage							0.98	0.94-1.02	0.302

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[1] CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Lucia Hisako Takase Gonçalves E-mail: lhtakase@gmail.com