This article discusses the role of China, Russia, India and Brazil in the climate regime. It describes the trajectory of their emissions, of their domestic policies and of their international commitments, and argues that, despite their responsibility in causing the problem, they have been conservative forces in the climate regime.
Keywords:
BRIC countries; decabornization; climate change; international politics; international system.
| 1990 including LULUCF | 1990 excluding LULUCF | 1990 % of world emissions with LULUCF | 2012 including LULUCF | 2012 excluding LULUCF | 2012 % of world emissions with LULUCF | δ 1990-2012 including LULUCF | δ 1990-2012 excluding LULUCF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 3,218.45 | 3,320.97 | 9.48% | 10,684.29 | 10,975.50 | 22.44% | 231.97% | 230.49% |
| Russia | 2,776.78 | 2,776.78 | 8.18% | 2,254.47 | 2,322.22 | 4.73% | -18.81% | -16.37% |
| India | 1,212.02 | 1,239.06 | 3.57% | 2,887.08 | 3,013.77 | 6.06% | 140.18% | 143.23% |
| Brazil | 1,606.59 | 565.09 | 4.73% | 1,823.15 | 1,012.55 | 3.83% | 13.48% | 79.18% |
| World | 33,937.21 | 30,423.75 | 47,598.55 | 44,815.54 | 40.25% | 47.30% |
| 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2012 | Variation 1990-2012 (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China no LULUCF | 3,320.97 | 4,701.65 | 9,764.68 | 10,975.50 | 230.49% |
| China with LULUCF | 3,218.45 | 4,371.05 | 9,473.05 | 10,684.29 | 231.97% |
| Russia no LULUCF | 2,776.78 | 2,060.02 | 2,230.03 | 2,322.22 | -16.37% |
| Russia with LULUCF | 2,776.78 | 2,263.53 | 2,090.23 | 2,254.47 | -18.81% |
| India no LULUCF | 1,239.06 | 1,767.28 | 2,772.48 | 3,013.77 | 143.23% |
| India with LULUCF | 1,212.02 | 1,720.19 | 2,647.93 | 2,887.08 | 138.20% |
| Brazil no LULUCF | 565.09 | 733.48 | 950.31 | 1,012.55 | 79.18% |
| Brazil with LULUCF | 1,606.59 | 1,778.98 | 1,773.77 | 1,823.15 | 13.48% |
| COP 15 - Copenhagen | COP 21 - Paris | |
|---|---|---|
| China | By 2020 (baseline = 2005): (i) to reduce the carbon intensity of its GDP by 40-45%; (ii) to raise the level of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 15%; (iii) to increase forest coverage by 40 million hectares, raising forest stock by 1.3 billion cubic meters. | By 2030 (baseline = 2005): (i) to peak emissions; (ii) to reduce carbon intensity of its GDP by 60-65%; (iii) to increase the share of non fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20%; (iv) to increase the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters. |
| Russia | By 2020 (baseline = 1990): to reduce 15-25% of its emissions, the range depending on (i) "appropriate accounting of the potential of Russia's forestry in frame of contribution in meeting the obligations of the anthropogenic emissions reduction" and (ii) "undertaking by all major emitters the legally binding obligations to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions". | Between 2020 and 2030 (baseline = 1990): to reduce 25-30% of its emissions, "subject to the maximum possible account of absorbing capacity of forests". |
| India | By 2020 (baseline = 2005): to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP between 20-25%. In order to achieve the target: (i) increase fossil fuel standards by 2011; (ii) adopt building energy codes by 2012; (iii) increase forest cover to sequester an amount equivalent to 10% of its annual carbon emissions; and (iv) increase electricity from wind, solar and small hydropower from 8 to 20%. | By 2030 (baseline = 2005): (i) to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35%; (ii) to achieve about 40% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel based energy resources, "with the help of transfer of technology and low cost international finance including from Green Climate Fund (GCF)"; and (iii) to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tons of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover. |
| Brazil | By 2020: (i) to reduce its emissions growth by 36-39%, baseline = business as usual scenarios; and (ii) to cut 80% of deforestation, baseline = 2005. | By 2025-2030 (baseline = 2005): to reduce emissions by 37-43% (respectively); (i) increasing the share of sustainable biofuels to approximately 18%; (ii) achieving 45% of renewables in the energy mix; expanding wind, solar and biomass to 28-33% of the matrix and 23% of the electricity production; increasing energy efficiency in electricity by 10%; (iii) zero illegal deforestation; (iv) restoring 15 million hectares of pastureland and enhancing 5 million hectares of integrated cropland-livestock-forestry systems; (v) promoting new standards of clean technology and further enhance energy efficiency measures and low carbon infrastructure in the industrial sector; (vi) promoting efficiency measures in the transportation sector, and improving infrastructure for transport and public transportation in urban areas. |
