Estimation of soybean agronomic performance in climatic scenarios for Southern Brazil

Minuzzi, Rosandro Boligon; Frederico, Carolina do Amaral; Silva, Thieres George Freire da

doi:10.1590/0034-737X201764060002

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Agricultural Engineering • Rev. Ceres 64 (6) • Nov-Dec 2017 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0034-737X201764060002 copy

Estimation of soybean agronomic performance in climatic scenarios for Southern Brazil

Estimativa do desempenho agronômico da soja em cenários climáticos para o sul do Brasil

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

The study aimed to analyze the agronomic performance of soybean cultivated in Southern Brazil, in climatic scenarios. Climatic data from three cities located in the main soybean producing regions of Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul were used in the Aquacrop 4.0 software. Thus, it was possible to simulate cycle duration, yield, water use efficiency in productivity of evapotranspiration water (WUE), net irrigation requirement, and harvest index adjusted for different climatic scenarios based on short-term (2016-2035) and medium-term projections (2046-2065) of the RCP4.5 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The soybean cycle duration tends to decrease when the locality is colder. Productivity and WUE should increase even if there is no irrigation requirement in future climate scenarios.

Key words:
yield; irrigation; fenology

Authorship

Rosandro Boligon Minuzzi ^** Corresponding author: rbminuzzi@hotmail.com

Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Departamento de Engenharia Rural, Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil. rbminuzzi@hotmail.com; carolinafrederico32@hotmail.comUniversidade Federal de Santa CatarinaBrazilFlorianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Departamento de Engenharia Rural, Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil. rbminuzzi@hotmail.com; carolinafrederico32@hotmail.com

Carolina do Amaral Frederico

Thieres George Freire da Silva

Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Serra Talhada, Pernambuco, Brazil. thigeoprofissional@hotmail.comUniversidade Federal Rural de PernambucoBrazilSerra Talhada, Pernambuco, Brazil Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Serra Talhada, Pernambuco, Brazil. thigeoprofissional@hotmail.com

* Corresponding author: rbminuzzi@hotmail.com

SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Figures | Tables

Figures (1)
Tables (5)

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Figure 1:
Geographic location of meteorological stations used in the study, in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Paraná.

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Table 1:
Geographic coordinates, altitude, and climatology of air temperature and rainfall for the cities of Maringá, Chapecó, and Passo Fundo from October 1^st to March 31

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Table 2:
Quarterly mean air temperature deviations based on the 25 and 75% projected for the southern region of Brazil by the RCP4.5 scenario of IPCC for the periods 2016-2035 and 2046-2065

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Table 3:
Semi-annual precipitation deviations (%) based on 25 and 75% projected for the southern region of Brazil by the RCP4.5 scenario of IPCC for the periods 2016-2035 and 2046-2065

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Table 4:
Cycle duration after germination, yield and water use efficiency (WUE), required irrigation, adjusted harvest index (HI_aj) estimated for the current climate (reference), and their respective deviations in future climatic scenarios for soybeans sown on October 10, in Chapecó, Maringá, and Passo Fundo

Thumbnail

Table 5:
Cycle duration after germination, yield, water use efficiency (WUE), required irrigation, adjusted harvest index (HI_aj) estimated for current climate (reference), and their respective deviations in future climatic scenarios for soybeans sown on December 10, in Chapecó, Maringá, and Passo Fundo

Figure 1: Geographic location of meteorological stations used in the study, in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Paraná.

Table 1: Geographic coordinates, altitude, and climatology of air temperature and rainfall for the cities of Maringá, Chapecó, and Passo Fundo from October 1^st to March 31

City	Latitude (°)	Longitude (°)	Altitude (m)	Temperature (°C)	Rainfall (mm)
Maringá	-23.40	-51.91	542	24.5	1058.4
Chapecó	-27.90	-52.64	679	22.8	1126.6
Passo Fundo	-28.21	-52.40	684	20.9	1032.6

Table 2: Quarterly mean air temperature deviations based on the 25 and 75% projected for the southern region of Brazil by the RCP4.5 scenario of IPCC for the periods 2016-2035 and 2046-2065

	Air temperature deviation (°C)
	Dec-Feb		Mar-May		Jun-Aug		Sep-Nov
Period	25%	75%	25%	75%	25%	75%	25%	75%
2016-2035	0.5	1.0	0.5	0.7	0.7	1.2	0.5	1
2046-2065	1.0	1.7	1.2	1.7	1.0	2.0	1.0	2.0

Source: Adapted from the IPCC (2013)

Table 3: Semi-annual precipitation deviations (%) based on 25 and 75% projected for the southern region of Brazil by the RCP4.5 scenario of IPCC for the periods 2016-2035 and 2046-2065

	Precipitation deviation (%)
	Oct-Mar		Apr-Sep
Period	25%	75%	25%	75%
2016-2035	-5	+5	-5	+15
2046-2065	-5	+15	-5	+15

Source: Adapted from the IPCC (2013)

Table 4: Cycle duration after germination, yield and water use efficiency (WUE), required irrigation, adjusted harvest index (HI_aj) estimated for the current climate (reference), and their respective deviations in future climatic scenarios for soybeans sown on October 10, in Chapecó, Maringá, and Passo Fundo

	Current climate	2016-2035		2046-2065
CO₂ (ppm)	383.76	425.8		499.55
Seeding: October 10		25%	75%	25%	75%
Chapecó - SC
Cycle duration (days)	127	-3	-6	-6	-9
Yield (ton ha^-1)	3.547	+0.234	+0.126	+0.478	+0.317
WUE (kg m^-3)	0.60	+0.05	+0.04	+0.11	+0.08
Irrigation (mm)	0	0	0	0	0
HI_aj (%)	31	31	31	31	31
Maringá - PR
Cycle duration (days)	115	-2	-2	-2	-5
Yield (ton ha^-1)	3.192	+0.206	+0.330	+0.667	+0.460
WUE (kg m^-3)	0.58	+0.05	+0.07	+0.14	+0.10
Irrigation (mm)	0	0	0	0	0
HI_aj (%)	31	31	31	31	31
Passo Fundo - RS
Cycle duration (days)	135	-4	-7	-7	-13
Yield (ton ha^-1)	3.752	+0.199	+0.123	+0.494	+0.191
WUE (kg m^-3)	0.60	+0.05	+0.04	+0.12	+0.07
Irrigation (mm)	0	0	0	0	0
HI_aj (%)	31	31	31	31	31

Table 5: Cycle duration after germination, yield, water use efficiency (WUE), required irrigation, adjusted harvest index (HI_aj) estimated for current climate (reference), and their respective deviations in future climatic scenarios for soybeans sown on December 10, in Chapecó, Maringá, and Passo Fundo

	Current climate	2016-2035		2046-2065
CO₂ (ppm)	383.76	425.8		499.55
Seeding: December 10		25%	75%	25%	75%
Chapecó - SC
Cycle duration (days)	129	-5	-7	-9	-11
Yield (ton ha^-1)	3.715	+0.145	+0.019	+0.370	+0.338
WUE (kg m^-3)	0.70	+0.04	+0.02	+0.10	+0.09
Irrigation (mm)	0	0	0	0	0
HI_aj (%)	31	31	31	31	31
Maringá - PR
Cycle duration (days)	115	-2	-3	-4	-5
Yield (ton ha^-1)	3.224	+0.205	+0.282	+0.464	+0.537
WUE (kg m^-3)	0.63	+0.05	+0.07	+0.11	+0.12
Irrigation (mm)	0	0	0	0	0
HI_aj (%)	31	31	31	31	31
Passo Fundo - RS
Cycle duration (days)	140	-5	-9	-11	-17
Yield (ton ha^-1)	4.011	+0.209	+0.073	+0.400	+0.123
WUE (kg m^-3)	0.73	+0.05	+0.03	+0.11	+0.06
Irrigation (mm)	0	0	0	0	0
HI_aj (%)	31	31	31	31	31

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[1] * Corresponding author: rbminuzzi@hotmail.com