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Revista de Administração (São Paulo)

versão impressa ISSN 0080-2107

Resumo

SPERS, Renata Giovinazzo; WRIGHT, James Terence Coulter  e  AMEDOMAR, André de Azevedo. Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020. Rev. Adm. (São Paulo) [online]. 2013, vol.48, n.2, pp.254-267. ISSN 0080-2107.  http://dx.doi.org/10.5700/rausp1086.

Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006) was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) (WRIGHT, 1991) and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future"), a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth") and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture"). Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere.

Palavras-chave : scenarios; milk production chain Brazil; strategies for milk.

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