ANALYSIS OF GRADE REPETITION THROUGH MULTILEVEL MODELS: A STUDY FROM PORTUGAL

Bastos, Amélia; Ferrão, Maria Eugénia

doi:10.1590/198053146131

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Sumário

ARTICLES • Cad. Pesqui. 49 (174) • Oct-Dec 2019 • https://doi.org/10.1590/198053146131 copy

ANALYSIS OF GRADE REPETITION THROUGH MULTILEVEL MODELS: A STUDY FROM PORTUGAL¹ The authors were partially supported by the Project CEMAPRE (Centro de Matemática Aplicada à Previsão e Decisão Económica) - UID/MULTI/00491/2019 financed by FCT/MCTES (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia do Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior) through national funds.

ANALYSE DU REDOUBLEMENT SCOLAIRE AU MOYEN DE MODÈLES MULTI-NIVEAUX: UNE ÉTUDE AU PORTUGAL

ANÁLISIS DE LA RETENCIÓN ESCOLAR A TRAVÉS DE MODELOS MULTINIVEL: UN ESTUDIO EN PORTUGAL

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

This paper investigates grade repetition in Portugal using microdata. Drawing on multilevel models, we analyse the number of times the student repeated a grade in compulsory education - our dependent variable - in association with children’s individual characteristics, household sociodemographic and economic background, and children’s living conditions - our covariates. Furthermore, we also attempt to shed light on the impact of schools on the endogenous variable. Our results confirm the importance of individual, family, and neighbourhood characteristics on the rate of grade repetition. In terms of schools, the results obtained show that the student’s probability of failure vary across schools, demonstrating the importance of the impact of the school itself on grade repetition.

GRADE REPETITION; SOCIAL PARTICIPATION; MULTILEVEL MODEL

Fundação Carlos Chagas Av. Prof. Francisco Morato, 1565, 05513-900 São Paulo SP Brasil, Tel.: +55 11 3723-3000 - São Paulo - SP - Brazil
E-mail: cadpesq@fcc.org.br

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[1] NOTA:

Amélia Bastos has contributed to the revised versions of the manuscript, and approved the final version. She has made substantial contributions to conception and design of the manuscript, has drafted the first version of the literature review and revised the methodology section. In addition, she has contributed to the conclusion. Maria Eugénia Ferrão has contributed to the revised versions of the manuscript, and approved the final version. She has made substantial contributions to conception and design of the manuscript, has drafted the first version of the methods and empirical findings sections, and revised the literature review section. In addition, she has contributed to the conclusion.

VARIABLE	MIN	MAX	MEAN	SD	PROPORTION	N MISSING
Male	---	---	---	---	0.46	7
Mother’s education ≤ ISCED 2	---	---	---	---	0.076	11
ISCED 2 < Mother’s education ≤ ISCED 3	---	---	---	---	0.623	11
ISCED 3 < Mother’s education ≤ ISCED 8	---	---	---	---	0.301	11
Father’s education ≤ ISCED 2	---	---	---	---	0.089	56
ISCED 2 < Father’s education ≤ ISCED 3	---	---	---	---	0.722	56
ISCED 3 < Father’s education ≤ ISCED 8	---	---	---	---	0.189	56
Poverty status	---	---	---	---	0.286	6
Housing index	-12.502	1.511	0.012	0.937	---	13
Health index	-5.941	1.016	0.000	1.000	---	27
Social participation index	-2.649	1.940	-0.013	1.000	---	7

	PARAMETER ESTIMATE	EXPECTED COUNT	STANDARD ERROR	PARAMETER ESTIMATE	EXPECTED COUNT	STANDARD ERROR
	ALL FIXED PARAMETERS			FIXED PARAMETERS WITH α=5%
Constant	-3.604	0.027	0.405	-3.076	0.046	0.353
Boy (1) vs. Girl (0)	0.364	1.439	0.174	0.299	1.349	0.149
Mother’s education ≤ ISCED 2 (1) vs Mother’s education > ISCED 2 (0)	0.662	1.939	0.214	0.942	2.565	0.175
Father’s education ≤ ISCED 2 (1) vs Father’s education > ISCED 2 (0)	0.447	1.564	0.230	---	---	---
Poverty status (poor=1)	0.415	1.514	0.183	0.404	1.498	0.166
Housing index	-0.084	0.919	0.052	---	---	---
Health index	-0.240	0.787	0.077	-0.261	0.77	0.081
Social participation index	-0.278	0.757	0.088	-0.192	0.825	0.068
Grade or School year	0.088	1.092	0.041	0.065	1.067	0.030
Random effect at level 2 (class)	0.228		0.139	0.194		0.117
Random effect at level 3 (school)	0.234		0.164	0.199		0.138
Number of cases	784			838

	PARAMETER ESTIMATE	EXPECTED COUNT	STANDARD ERROR	PARAMETER ESTIMATE	EXPECTED COUNT	STANDARD ERROR
	ALL FIXED PARAMETERS			FIXED PARAMETERS WITH α=5%
Constant	-3.652	0.026	0.410	-3.162	0.042	0.357
Boy vs. Girl	0.362	1.436	0.174	0.301	1.351	0.149
Mother’s education ≤ ISCED 2 (1) vs Mother’s education > ISCED 2 (0)	0.686	1.986	0.214	0.945	2.573	0.176
Father’s education ≤ ISCED 2 (1) vs Father’s education > ISCED 2 (0)	0.445	1.576	0.230	---	---	---
	PARAMETER ESTIMATE	EXPECTED COUNT	STANDARD ERROR	PARAMETER ESTIMATE	EXPECTED COUNT	STANDARD ERROR
	ALL FIXED PARAMETERS			FIXED PARAMETERS WITH α=5%
Poverty status (poor=1)	0,409	1.505	0.183	0.404	1.498	0.166
Housing index	-0,084	0.919	0.052	---	---	---
Health index	-0,242	0.785	0.077	-0.340	0.712	0.104
Social participation index	-0,313	0.731	0.107	-0.193	0.824	0.069
Grade or School year	0,091	1.095	0.041	0.070	1.073	0.030
Random effect at level 2 (class)	0,208		0.135	0.182		0.115
Random effect at level 3 (school)	$[\begin{matrix} 0,256 & - 0,017 \\ - 0,017 & 0,036 \end{matrix}]$		$[\begin{matrix} 0,169 & 0,005 \\ 0,005 & 0,006 \end{matrix}]$	$[\begin{matrix} 0,266 & - 0,078 \\ - 0,078 & 0,046 \end{matrix}]$		$[\begin{matrix} 0,171 & 0,076 \\ 0,076 & 0,006 \end{matrix}]$
Number of cases		784				838