Soybean yield in future climate scenarios for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Cera, Jossana Ceolin; Streck, Nereu Augusto; Fensterseifer, Cesar Augusto Jarutais; Ferraz, Simone Erotildes Teleginski; Bexaira, Kelin Pribs; Silveira, Waleska Bolzon; Cardoso, Ânthony Paz

doi:10.1590/S0100-204X2017000600002

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AGROMETEOROLOGY • Pesq. agropec. bras. 52 (06) • June 2017 • https://doi.org/10.1590/S0100-204X2017000600002 copy

Soybean yield in future climate scenarios for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Produtividade de soja em cenários climáticos futuros para o Rio Grande do Sul

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract:

The objective of this work was to estimate the yield potential and the water-limited yield of soybean (Glycine max) in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, in two future climate scenarios, SRES A1B and RCP4.5, using the SoySim and Cropgro-Soybean simulation models. In both models, three maturity groups (4.8, 5.5, and 6.0) and six sowing dates (09/01, 10/01, 11/01, 12/01, 01/01, and 02/01) were considered in the SRES A1B-CMIP3 and RCP4.5-CMIP5 scenarios. The analyzed variable was grain yield at 13% moisture (Mg ha^-1). Soybean yield potential in Rio Grande do Sul should increase up to the end of the 21^st century, according to both scenarios. Water-limited yield of soybean also increases up to the end of the 21^st century, by the SRES A1B-CMIP3 scenario; however, it will decrease in future periods, by the RCP4.5-CMIP5 scenario because of limited soil water.

Index terms:
Glycine max; climate change; Cropgro-Soybean model; RCP4.5; SoySim model; SRES A1B

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Area	Sowing date	Trends in yield (kg ha^-1 ppm^-1)
		SRES A1B-CMIP3			RCP4.5-CMIP5
		SoySim	Cropgro_YPot	Cropgro_WLY	SoySim	Cropgro_YPot	Cropgro_WLY
1	09/01	3.52	2.63	3.92	6.25	5.42	3.58
	10/01	3.15	0.64	3.66	6.65	4.14	-0.39
	11/01	3.95	0.85	3.23	6.03	3.52	-0.89
	12/01	3.52	1.59	3.69	4.63	4.58	-2.29
	01/01	2.43	1.78	3.45	4.41	4.75	-2.85
	02/01	0.76	1.48	2.44	3.01	3.63	-0.73
2	09/01	3.18	2.33	2.57	6.09	4.14	0.17
	10/01	2.94	1.43	3.71	5.30	-0.06	-1.12
	11/01	3.92	2.04	4.30	4.91	1.17	-1.45
	12/01	4.08	2.65	3.55	3.91	3.74	-1.96
	01/01	3.39	2.57	3.74	3.63	5.03	-2.07
	02/01	1.51	2.25	2.70	3.46	4.25	-0.78
3	09/01	3.34	2.33	4.67	6.14	3.13	0.34
	10/01	3.23	0.53	2.86	6.09	1.06	-0.34
	11/01	4.18	0.90	2.63	5.47	1.90	-0.5
	12/01	3.60	2.41	2.86	4.69	3.80	-0.56
	01/01	2.96	1.91	2.63	3.29	4.47	-0.22
	02/01	1.06	1.59	1.86	3.07	2.96	0.84
4	09/01	3.71	2.36	3.34	6.42	5.76	1.90
	10/01	3.81	2.20	4.00	6.31	4.47	-0.06
	11/01	4.32	2.41	4.43	5.64	4.30	-0.45
	12/01	4.74	2.49	4.03	4.30	4.64	-0.13
	01/01	3.47	2.55	3.42	5.08	5.25	-2.12
	02/01	1.77	2.28	2.12	3.29	4.64	-1.06