SPATIAL CONVERGENCE OF THE GROSS VALUE OF PRODUCTION OF FIREWOOD IN THE MESOREGIONS OF THE BRAZILIAN NORTHEAST

Coelho Junior, Luiz Moreira; Martins, Kalyne de Lourdes da Costa; Silva, Magno Vamberto Batista da

doi:10.1590/1806-90882018000200003

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Articles • Rev. Árvore 42 (2) • 2018 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-90882018000200003 copy

SPATIAL CONVERGENCE OF THE GROSS VALUE OF PRODUCTION OF FIREWOOD IN THE MESOREGIONS OF THE BRAZILIAN NORTHEAST

CONVERGÊNCIA ESPACIAL DO VALOR BRUTO DE PRODUÇÃO DE LENHA NAS MESORREGIÕES DO NORDESTE BRASILEIRO

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzed the process of convergence in the gross value of wood production in mesoregions of Northeast Brazil, in the period of 1994 and 2013. The object of study was the Gross Value of Production (GVP) of firewood per km² of the mesoregions of the Northeast of Brazil. In the methodology the Absolute Convergence Model was applied and estimated through the classical model and spatial models. In the spatial approach we used the Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) and the Spatial Error Model (SEM). From the results obtained, the following conclusions were reached: The mesoregions of the Northeast of Brazil had an average fall of 3.94% a.a. of the GVP/km² of native wood for the period 1994 to 2013. Considering the classical linear regression model, convergence was verified and also the presence of spatial dependence for GVP/km² of firewood. In order to correct the spatial dependence, the SAR and SEM Models were adequate and according to Akaike's Information Criterion and used the rook matrix the SEM was configured the best model. This study showed the importance of the involvement of the spatial question in the models, either by the overlap of information of the GVP and in the development of public policies that positively affect the neighborhood.

Keywords:
Forest economics; Bioenergy; Spatial econometrics

Table 1 The actual GVP per area (GVP/km2) of firewood from vegetal extraction (R$1,000.00) in the mesoregions of the Brazilian Northeast for the years of 1994 and 2013 (IGP-DI 2012 Base=100).

States	Northeastern Mesoregions	Area (km²)	GVP/km²1994	GVP/km²2013	2013/1994
					(% a.a.)
	Northern Maranhão	52,491.41	0.5100	0.2544	-3.59
	Western Maranhão	86,873.69	0.1137	0.0240	-7.86
Maranhão	Center Maranhão	54,179.28	0.1243	0.1120	-0.55
	Eastern Maranhão	70,693.12	0.7731	0.2291	-6.20
	Southern Maranhão	67,699.45	0.1378	0.1529	0.55
	Northern Piauí	22,186.49	0.1640	0.0748	-4.05
Piauí	Center Northern Piauí	55,254.48	0.0844	0.0554	-2.19
	Southwestern Piauí	128,008.00	0.0271	0.0386	1.88
	Southeastern Piauí	46,162.96	0.0688	0.1375	3.71
	Northwestern Ceará	34,527.15	0.4096	0.3170	-1.34
	Northern Ceará	21,063.28	1.3622	0.3737	-6.58
	Metropolitan Fortaleza	3,767.71	2.9228	0.0447	-19.75
Ceará	Sertões in Ceará	46,250.89	0.5969	0.2120	-5.30
	Jaguaribe	18,440.96	0.6650	0.1595	-7.24
	Mid-southern Ceará	9,944.19	0.9556	0.2045	-7.79
	Southern Ceará	14,892.13	0.8627	0.4101	-3.84
	Agreste in Rio Grande do Norte	9,385.437	0.3398	0.2696	-1.21
Rio Grande do Norte	Center Rio Grande do Norte	15,810.34	1.3220	0.3806	-6.34
	Eastern Rio Grande do Norte	6,440.314	1.0674	0.0219	-18.50
	Western Rio Grande do Norte	21,175.04	1.2039	0.4596	-4.94
	Agreste in Paraíba	12,931.05	0.2299	0.0887	-4.89
	Borborema	15,576.81	0.1590	0.2038	1.32
Paraíba	Mata in Paraíba	5,232.70	0.0316	0.0094	-6.18
	Sertão in Paraíba	22,729.19	0.2910	0.2085	-1.74
	Agreste in Pernambuco	24,549.08	0.3321	0.0887	-6.71
	Mata in Pernambuco	8,402.31	0.0820	0.0262	-5.83
Pernambuco	Metropolitan Recife	2,787.47	-	-	-
	São Francisco in Pernambuco	24,457.52	0.2159	0.4093	3.42
	Sertão in Pernambuco	37,952.75	0.1697	0.5799	6.68
	Agreste in Alagoas	5,764.09	0.0876	0.0101	-10.75
Alagoas	Eastern Alagoas	13,243.58	0.1796	0.0080	-15.10
	Sertão in Alagoas	8,767.33	0.3477	0.1221	-5.36
	Agreste in Sergipe	5,902.86	0.1966	0.0370	-8.42
Sergipe	Eastern Sergipe	8,700.05	0.4805	0.0140	-16.98
	Sertão in Sergipe	7,315.57	0.1342	0.0454	-5.54
	CenterNorthern Bahia	82,110.40	0.4477	0.4338	-0.17
	Center Southern Bahia	127,914.90	0.5008	0.2506	-3.58
	Far Western Bahia	117,438.00	0.1777	0.0701	-4.78
Bahia	Metropolitan Salvador	11,282.61	0.5896	0.1306	-7.63
	Northeastern Bahia	56,461.91	0.3778	0.1372	-5.19
	Southern Bahia	54,705.69	0.7915	0.0605	-12.66
	Vale São Franciscano da Bahia	114,819.6	0.5261	0.1759	-5.60

Table 2 Classic linear regression model via ordinary least squares for the GVP/km2 of firewood in the Brazilian Northeastern mesoregions during 1994-2013.

Spatial Weights Matrix	Moran's I
	Test I	Residual P-Value
1 neighbor	1.2800	0.1040
2 neighbors	1.9948	0.0310
3 neighbors	2.2840	0.0190
4 neighbors	2.3347	0.0170
5 neighbors	2.7265	0.0270
*Queen*	2.7303	0.0100
*Rook*	2.7617	0.0080

Table 3 Spatial econometric SAR and SEM models for the contiguity matrices of types queen and rook, considering the GVP/km2 of firewood for the Brazilian Northeastern mesoregions, during 1994-2013.

	SAR Model		SEM Model
	Queen	Rook	Queen	Rook
AIC	122.774	122.932	121.065	120.893
Residual	0.2120	0.2380	0.3130	0.3020
p-value
Coefficient	-1.1226	-1.1660	-1.6101	-1.6496
of the
constant
Coefficient	-0.4179	-0.4404	-0.46107	-0.4911
of ln(GVP 1994
/km²)
P-value	0.0001	0.0001	0.0000	0.0000
of the
constant
P-value	0.0041	0.0026	0.0036	0.0018
of the ln
(GVP 1994 /km²)
Standard	0.2844	0.2867	0.3043	0.3027
error of
the constant
Standard	0.1457	0.1465	0.1582	0.1570
error of ln
(GVP 1994 /km²)

Sociedade de Investigações Florestais Universidade Federal de Viçosa, CEP: 36570-900 - Viçosa - Minas Gerais - Brazil, Tel: (55 31) 3612-3959 - Viçosa - MG - Brazil
E-mail: rarvore@sif.org.br

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[1] *Corresponding author.