FIRE BEHAVIOR VARIABLES AND HAZARD INDICES OF FOREST FIRES

Torres, Fillipe Tamiozzo Pereira; Lima, Gumercindo Souza; Alvares, Bráulio Furtado

doi:10.1590/1806-90882018000300006

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Articles • Rev. Árvore 42 (3) • 2018 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-90882018000300006 copy

FIRE BEHAVIOR VARIABLES AND HAZARD INDICES OF FOREST FIRES

VARIÁVEIS DO COMPORTAMENTO DO FOGO E ÍNDICES DE PERIGO DE INCÊNDIOS FLORESTAIS

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of different fire hazard indices (FWI, FMA, FMA+, Telicyn, Nesterov, P-EVAP and EVAP/P), taking into account the fire behavior variables and the susceptibility to fire expressed by the moisture of the combustible material. For this purpose, controlled burnings were performed at different times and information was recorded in relation to the meteorological conditions, characteristics of the combustible material and fire behavior variables. In general, all the indices presented significant correlations with both the moisture of the combustible material and the behavior of the fire. However, in general, a higher linear correlation of components of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system was observed in predicting fire behavior and EVAP / P index in fuel moisture. The consistency of the correlations between the various indices and the analyzed variables makes the methodology possible to be used in any place, facilitating the decision making in regions where records of occurrences of forest fires are absent or unreliable.

Keywords:
Weather indices; Fine fuel moisture; Controlled burns

Table 1 Restrictions of the indexes according the rain.

Indice	Rain (mm)	Change in calculation
Telicyn	>2.5 A	bandon the sum and start calculating the next day, or when the rains cease. On the day (s) of rain the index is equal to zero.
EVAP/P	< 1	Do not enter in the calculation
	1 to 15	Divide the EVAP/P before the rain of the day
	>15	Stop the calculation, starting over the next day or when the rains cease. On the day of rain EVAP/P = 0
Nesterov and P-EVAP	≤2.0	No
	2.1 to 5.0	Shoot down 25% on the value of G calculated on the eve
	5.1 to 8.0	and Add (t) of the day Shoot down 50% in value of G calculated on the eve and
	8.1 to 10.0	Add (t) of the day
	>10.0	Leave the previous sum and start new calculation, i.e. G = (d. t) of the day Stop the calculation (G = 0), resuming the sum the next day or when the rains cease
FMA and FMA+	≤2.4	No
	2.5 to 4.9	Shoot down 30% on FMA calculated on the eve and sum
	5.0 to 9.9	(100/hour) of the day Shoot down 60% on FMA calculated on the eve and sum
	10.0 to 12.9	(100/hour) of the day Shoot down 80% on FMA calculated on the eve and sum
	>12.9	(100/hour) of the day Stop the calculation (FMA = 0), resuming the sum the next day or when the rains cease

Table 2 Pearson correlation coefficients for combustible moisture content and fire danger indices (p<0,05).

Indice	CI-M	CI-V	CI-L	CII	CT	mean
EVAP/P	-0.77	-0.85	-0.76	-0.83	-0.83	-0.81
FWI	-0.78	-0.82	-0.72	-0.81	-0.83	-0.79
FMA+	-0.73	-0.82	-0.71	-0.80	-0.80	-0.77
DMC	-0.72	-0.77	-0.79	-0.79	-0.79	-0.77
FMA	-0.72	-0.69	-0.68	-0.71	-0.76	-0.71
P-EVAP	-0.67	-0.72	-0.61	-0.69	-0.73	-0.68
ISI	-0.69	-0.55	-0.72	-0.61	-0.65	-0.64
FFMC	-0.64	-0.43	-0.81	-0.51	-0.61	-0.60
BUI	0.62	0.54	0.57	0.56	0.65	0.59
Nesterov	-0.57	-0.60	-0.51	-0.57	-0.62	-0.57
Telicyn	-0.53	-0.49	-0.46	-0.48	-0.56	-0.50
DC	-0.37	-0.45	-0.46	-0.44	-0.36	-0.42

Table 3 Pearson correlation coefficients for fire behavior variables and fire danger indices (p<0,05).

Indice	PQ	VP	Hch	CD	I	CA	Hcl	mean
FWI	0.68	0.78	0.87	0.73	0.74	0.74	0.76	0.76
EVAP/P	0.62	0.85	0.85	0.67	0.72	0.64	0.75	0.73
FMA+	0.52	0.52	0.74	0.67	0.69	0.74	0.71	0.66
ISI	0.59	0.89	0.66	0.57	0.64	0.75	0.46	0.65
P-EVAP	0.62	0.51	0.73	0.66	0.61	0.73	0.62	0.64
DMC	0.56	0.46	0.69	0.6	0.58	0.68	0.59	0.59
FFMC	0.65	0.59	0.63	0.62	0.47	0.56	0.50	0.57
BUI	-0.40	-0.46	-0.64	-0.57	-0.63	-0.63	-0.63	-0.57
FMA	0.44	0.4	0.63	0.54	0.54	0.62	0.55	0.53
Nesterov	0.33	0.37	0.57	0.49	0.53	0.56	0.53	0.48
Telicyn	0.29	0.37	0.52	0.44	0.49	0.49	0.48	0.44
DC	0.32	0.37	0.36	0.48	0.46	0.47	0.40	0.41

Sociedade de Investigações Florestais Universidade Federal de Viçosa, CEP: 36570-900 - Viçosa - Minas Gerais - Brazil, Tel: (55 31) 3612-3959 - Viçosa - MG - Brazil
E-mail: rarvore@sif.org.br

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