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Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

versão impressa ISSN 0101-3157versão On-line ISSN 1809-4538

Resumo

ARRUDA, ELANO FERREIRA; OLIVEIRA, MARIA THALITA ARRUDA  e  CASTELAR, IVAN. Recent dynamics of Brazilian inflation in different environments of forward-looking expectations. Brazil. J. Polit. Econ. [online]. 2017, vol.37, n.4, pp.808-831. ISSN 1809-4538.  https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572017v37n04a09.

This work analyzes how the recent Brazilian inflation responds to economic cycles and its inertial component considering different environments of forward-looking expectations in the framework of the Hybrid New-Keynesian Phillips Curve (HNKPC). To do this, use is made of monthly data from January 2002 to August 2015 and GMM-HAC estimates of the HNKPC. The results suggest that Brazilian inflation still has a strong inertial component and that in an environment of lower predictability of economic agents, inflation seems to be more sensitive to cyclical fluctuations in economic activity. Finally, it was observed a positive and significant pass-through exchange rate to inflation in Brazil.

Palavras-chave : Economic cycles; expectations; inflation.

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