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Insights on deflation theory

Insights sobre a teoria da deflação

ABSTRACT

Irving Fisher offered a ‘tentative’ debt-deflation theory of great depressions rather than a fully consistent theory of his ‘creed’: “I say ‘creed’ because, for brevity, it is purposely expressed dogmatically and without proof. [...] it is quite tentative” (Fisher 1933Fisher, I. (1933) “The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions”. Econometrica, 1(4): 337-357., p. 337). The paper argues that prominent authors who strived to explain his ideas within the Walrasian apparatus could not deliver a consistent theory of deflation with protracted depression. This is basically because destabilizing market forces cannot dominate in that conceptual framework. By contrast, owing to the way competitive forces operate under fundamental uncertainty, Keynes’ General Theory escapes the contradiction.

KEYWORDS:
Debt-deflation; depression; instability; uncertainty

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