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Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo)

versão impressa ISSN 0101-4161

Resumo

MARINHO, Emerson  e  TEIXEIRA, Marcelo. Os efeitos dos choques reais e nominais sobre as taxas de câmbio no Brasil. Estud. Econ. [online]. 2010, vol.40, n.3, pp.535-559. ISSN 0101-4161.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0101-41612010000300002.

This article analyses the impact of real and nominal shocks on the real and nominal exchange rates between Brazil and the US in the period from1999 to 2007. The main objective is to verify the real and nominal exchange rates paths toward the long-run equilibrium, and how these rates can be decomposed into movements caused by real and nominal shocks. The results show that both types of exchange rates respond immediately to a nominal shock leading to overshooting. However, the effect of a nominal shock, on the real exchange rate is only temporary, while, on the nominal exchange rate, it is permanent. Subjected to a real shock both exchange rates jump to a level that overshoots their long run equilibrium, returning to it around 25 months. The real shock also has a permanent effect on the real and the nominal exchange rates.

Palavras-chave : exchange rates; nominal and real shocks; permanent and temporary effects.

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