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Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo)

versão impressa ISSN 0101-4161

Resumo

SILVA, Guilherme Jonas Costa da  e  RESENDE, Marco Flávio da Cunha. Eficácia dos controles de capitais no Brasil: uma abordagem teórica e empírica alternativa. Estud. Econ. [online]. 2010, vol.40, n.3, pp.617-649. ISSN 0101-4161.  https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-41612010000300005.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of capital controls in Brazil, at the end of the 1990s. To do this, we test some hypotheses about capital controls in Brazil. The first hypothesis is that capital controls in Brazil were endogenous during the 1990s. The second one is that exogenous capital controls were more effective than the endogenous one. The third hypothesis is that capital controls by prices have the same effectiveness as quantitative controls when an external crisis is happening. To test these hypotheses the Autoregressive Vector method was used. This method is used in a pioneer way to test hypotheses about capital controls. The results highlight that capital controls in Brazil were endogenous and partially successful to obstruct the capital flight in 1999, although the exogenous controls seem to be more effective than the endogenous one. Another conclusion of the paper is that in periods of large financial instability only the quantitative capital controls are capable to obstruct all the capital flight.

Palavras-chave : external vulnerability; capital controls; Brazilian economy.

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