Resumo

MARGUERON, Marcus Vinicius  e  CARPIO, Lucio Guido Tapia. Processo de tomada de decisão sob incerteza em investimentos internacionais na exploração & produção offshore de petróleo: uma abordagem multicritério. Pesqui. Oper. [online]. 2005, vol.25, n.3, pp. 331-648. ISSN 0101-7438.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0101-74382005000300003.

This paper presents the theoretical developments in techniques of decision-making analysis in petroleum exploration and production projects, from economic evaluation using Discount Cash Flow (DCF) up to and including a presentation of the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT), which enables consideration of typical risks and uncertainties in international petroleum upstream investments in a new competitive situation among firms. Finally, a case study of the MAUT was developed and applied to define priorities among ten offshore exploration opportunities around the world offered to a fictitious Brazilian petroleum multinational company, according to decision-makers' preferences regarding operational, political and technological issues.

Palavras-chave : petroleum exploration & production; multiattribute utility theory; investments under uncertainties.