SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

vol.32 número1Performance evaluation in assets management with the AHPClusters and pivots for evaluating a large numberof alternatives in AHP índice de autoresíndice de materiabúsqueda de artículos
Home Pagelista alfabética de revistas  

Servicios Personalizados




Links relacionados


Pesquisa Operacional

versión impresa ISSN 0101-7438


NOVAES, Antonio G.N.; SCHOLZ-REITER, Bernd; SILVA, Vanina M. Durski  y  ROSA, Hobed. Long-term planning of a container terminal under demand uncertainty and economies of scale. Pesqui. Oper. [online]. 2012, vol.32, n.1, pp.55-86.  Epub 03-Abr-2012. ISSN 0101-7438.

Governments of many developing countries are presently granting concessions to private organizations to operate container terminals. A key element in this process is the technical and economic evaluation of the project. In practice, the demand levels over time are volatile. The first part of the paper deals with a capacity expansion problem with stochastic demand. Next, an optimization model employs a dynamic programming routine to find the best epochs to install new berths. Ship waiting times are computed with queuing models and are introduced into the main model as upper restrictions based on international practice. Finally, a real options analysis is performed with the objective of evaluating the effects of an eventual abandonment of the project at a pre-defined time horizon. The model is then applied to the container terminal of the Port of Rio Grande, Brazil.

Palabras clave : container terminals; capacity expansion; dynamic programming; abandon option.

        · texto en Inglés     · Inglés ( pdf epdf )


Creative Commons License Todo el contenido de esta revista, excepto dónde está identificado, está bajo una Licencia Creative Commons