SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING FOOTBALL MATCH OUTCOMES CONSIDERING EXPERTS' OPINIONS: THE 2010 AND 2014 FOOTBALL WORLD CUP CASES

Louzada, Francisco; Suzuki, Adriano K.; Salasar, Luis E.B.; Ara, Anderson; Leite, José G.

doi:10.1590/0101-7438.2015.035.03.0577

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Articles • Pesqui. Oper. 35 (3) • Sep-Dec 2015 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-7438.2015.035.03.0577 copy

SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING FOOTBALL MATCH OUTCOMES CONSIDERING EXPERTS' OPINIONS: THE 2010 AND 2014 FOOTBALL WORLD CUP CASES

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

In this paper we propose a simulation-based method for predicting the 2010 and 2014Football World Cup. Adopting a bayesian perspective, we modeled the number of goals of two opposing teams as a Poisson distribution whose mean is proportional to the relative technical level of opponents. FIFA ratings were taken as the measure of technical level of teams and experts' opinions about scores of matches were taken to construct prior distribution of parameters. Just before each round, tournament simulations were performed in order to estimate probabilities of events of main interest for audience and bettors such as qualifying to the knockout stage, reaching semi-finals, reaching the final match, winningthe tournament, among others.

Keywords:
Bayesian inference; Football World Cup; forecasting; poisson distribution; simulation

Team	Opponent	Expert
Team	Opponent	1	2	...	s
A	OA ₁	y _{1, 1}	y _{1, 2}	...	y_{1, s}
	OA ₂	y _{2, 1}	y _{2, 2}	...	y_{2, s}
	...	...	...	...	...
	OA_m	y_{m, 1}	y_{m, 2}	...	y_{m, s}
B	OB ₁	z _{1, 1}	z _{1, 2}	...	z_{1, s}
	OB ₂	z _{2, 1}	z _{2, 2}	...	z_{2, s}
	...	...	...	...	...
OB_m	z_{m, 1}	z_{m, 2}	...	z_{m, s}

		Nigeria					Total
		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	≥ 8
A	0	0.0465	0.0419	0.0287	0.0176	0.0101	0.0056	0.0030	0.0016	0.0017	0.1568
r	1	0.0627	0.0564	0.0386	0.0237	0.0137	0.0076	0.0041	0.0022	0.0023	0.2114
g	2	0.0576	0.0519	0.0355	0.0218	0.0126	0.0070	0.0038	0.0020	0.0022	0.1943
e	3	0.0447	0.0403	0.0276	0.0169	0.0098	0.0054	0.0029	0.0016	0.0017	0.1508
n	4	0.0315	0.0284	0.0194	0.0119	0.0069	0.0038	0.0021	0.0011	0.0012	0.1063
t	5	0.0209	0.0188	0.0129	0.0079	0.0045	0.0025	0.0014	0.0007	0.0008	0.0703
i	6	0.0132	0.0119	0.0081	0.0050	0.0029	0.0016	0.0009	0.0005	0.0005	0.0445
n	7	0.0081	0.0073	0.0050	0.0031	0.0018	0.0010	0.0005	0.0003	0.0003	0.0273
a	≥ 8	0.0114	0.0102	0.0070	0.0043	0.0025	0.0014	0.0007	0.0004	0.0004	0.0384
Total		0.2967	0.2670	0.1828	0.1121	0.0647	0.0359	0.0195	0.0103	0.0111	1

	Round	Team	Observed score	Team	W	D	L	De Finetti	Correct
Before 1st round	1	Côte d'Ivoire	(0-0)	Portugal	0.340	0.159	0.501	1.074	N
1	Brazil	(2-1)	Korea DPR	0.775	0.127	0.099	0.076	Y
2	Brazil	(3-1)	Côte d'Ivoire	0.527	0.175	0.298	0.343	Y
2	Portugal	(7-0)	Korea DPR	0.771	0.116	0.113	0.079	Y
3	Portugal	(0-0)	Brazil	0.362	0.198	0.439	0.967	N
3	Korea DPR	(0-3)	Côte d'Ivoire	0.153	0.123	0.723	0.115	Y
Before 2nd round	2	Brazil	(3-1)	Côte d'Ivoire	0.556	0.227	0.217	0.296	Y
2	Portugal	(7-0)	Korea DPR	0.550	0.212	0.238	0.304	Y
3	Portugal	(0-0)	Brazil	0.247	0.268	0.485	0.832	N
3	Korea DPR	(0-3)	Côte d'Ivoire	0.282	0.196	0.522	0.346	Y
Before 3rd round	3	Portugal	(0-0)	Brazil	0.300	0.230	0.470	0.903	N
3	Korea DPR	(0-3)	Côte d'Ivoire	0.152	0.171	0.677	0.157	Y

Team	Score	Team	W	D	L	Defineti	Correct
Uruguay	(2-1)	Korea Republic	0.410	0.217	0.373	0.533	Y
USA	(1-2)	Ghana	0.552	0.274	0.174	1.061	N
Germany	(4-1)	England	0.551	0.250	0.199	0.303	Y
Argentina	(3-1)	Mexico	0.695	0.168	0.137	0.140	Y
Netherlands	(2-1)	Slovakia	0.589	0.211	0.200	0.254	Y
Brazil	(3-0)	Chile	0.574	0.233	0.193	0.273	Y
Paraguay	(0-0)	Japan	0.323	0.258	0.419	0.832	N
Spain	(1-0)	Portugal	0.390	0.297	0.313	0.559	Y

Team	Champion	2nd Place	3rd Place	4th Place
Spain	0.4321	0.5679	0.0000	0.0000
Netherlands	0.5679	0.4321	0.0000	0.0000
Germany	0.0000	0.0000	0.7232	0.2768
Uruguay	0.0000	0.0000	0.2768	0.7232

	Team	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	4th Place	Qualif. Prob.
Before 1st round	Germany	0.4077	0.2785	0.1959	0.1179	0.6862
Australia	0.1090	0.1920	0.2765	0.4225	0.3010
Serbia	0.2056	0.2489	0.2816	0.2639	0.4545
Ghana	0.2777	0.2806	0.2460	0.1957	0.5583
Before 2nd round	Germany	0.8398	0.1396	0.0187	0.0019	0.9794
Australia	0.0025	0.1528	0.3602	0.4845	0.1553
Serbia	0.0048	0.0783	0.4349	0.4820	0.0831
Ghana	0.1529	0.6293	0.1862	0.0316	0.7822
Before 3rd round	Germany	0.5909	0.1245	0.2837	0.0009	0.7154
Australia	0.0000	0.0972	0.1779	0.7249	0.0972
Serbia	0.0895	0.5086	0.1277	0.2742	0.5981
Ghana	0.3196	0.2697	0.4107	0.0000	0.5893

Team	Champion	Final	Semi Final	Quarter Final	Round of 16
Spain	18.97	28.04	38.68	55.07	86.68
Netherlands	13.59	22.59	32.73	59.14	83.27
Brazil	10.26	17.67	26.71	42.31	73.31
Argentina	7.88	15.23	32.20	54.37	77.65
England	7.15	14.16	30.37	48.17	78.98
Portugal	7.11	13.20	21.41	36.59	67.94
Germany	5.20	10.93	24.18	40.21	67.80
Chile	3.51	7.92	14.24	26.06	59.56
Italy	3.33	7.46	13.74	35.01	71.98
USA	2.21	5.42	15.01	29.58	60.26
Mexico	1.74	4.85	14.18	31.53	64.90
Serbia	1.37	3.70	10.45	20.75	44.82
Uruguay	1.05	3.24	9.99	24.54	57.29
France	0.72	2.19	7.65	20.47	50.98
Greece	0.41	1.45	5.92	15.59	34.02

Group	Team	1st Place	2nd Place	3rd Place	4th Place	Qualif. Prob.
A	Brazil	0.70	0.18	0.08	0.04	0.88
Mexico	0.13	0.30	0.26	0.31	0.43
Croatia	0.09	0.27	0.32	0.32	0.36
Cameroon	0.07	0.25	0.34	0.34	0.32
B	Netherlands	0.38	0.32	0.25	0.06	0.70
Spain	0.36	0.32	0.26	0.06	0.68
Chile	0.25	0.32	0.34	0.09	0.57
Australia	0.01	0.04	0.15	0.80	0.05
D	Italy	0.41	0.32	0.22	0.06	0.73
England	0.38	0.33	0.23	0.07	0.71
Uruguay	0.20	0.30	0.37	0.13	0.50
Costa Rica	0.02	0.06	0.18	0.75	0.08
F	Argentina	0.65	0.22	0.10	0.03	0.87
Bosnia	0.17	0.34	0.30	0.19	0.51
Nigeria	0.13	0.28	0.33	0.26	0.41
Iran	0.05	0.16	0.28	0.51	0.21
G	Germany	0.41	0.33	0.18	0.08	0.74
Portugal	0.22	0.34	0.29	0.15	0.56
USA	0.26	0.12	0.18	0.44	0.38
Ghana	0.10	0.22	0.35	0.33	0.32

	Team	a ₀
	Team	0	0.10	0.25	0.50	0.75	0.90	1.00
Before Round of sixteen	Spain	9.98	9.43	7.56	6.31	5.39	5.23	4.94
	Netherlands	10.02	11.66	13.51	16.07	17.12	18.18	18.46
	Germany	9.95	9.50	9.49	7.94	7.72	7.56	7.14
	Uruguay	3.61	4.00	5.04	6.43	7.81	7.89	8.02
Before Quarter-finals	Spain	15.22	15.75	16.41	18.00	18.36	18.42	19.25
	Netherlands	11.25	10.57	9.28	7.60	6.28	6.44	6.01
	Germany	17.26	17.69	17.35	16.70	17.46	17.13	16.53
	Uruguay	6.60	6.81	6.41	6.70	6.98	6.28	6.36
Before Semi-finals	Spain	16.76	16.33	17.14	16.98	16.16	16.38	16.65
	Netherlands	30.77	29.42	27.45	25.06	23.85	22.92	22.26
	Germany	43.76	44.77	46.28	48.29	50.24	51.30	51.40
	Uruguay	8.71	9.48	9.13	9.67	9.75	9.40	9.69
Before Final	Spain	40.50	41.71	43.21	44.66	45.58	46.28	46.86
Netherlands	59.50	58.29	56.79	55.34	54.42	53.72	53.14

Team	Group	FIFA ratings	Team	Group	FIFA ratings
Brazil	G	1611	Australia	D	886
Spain	H	1565	Nigeria	B	883
Portugal	G	1249	Switzerland	H	866
Netherlands	E	1231	Slovenia	C	860
Italy	F	1184	Côte d'Ivoire	G	856
Germany	D	1082	Algeria	C	821
Argentina	B	1076	Paraguay	F	820
England	C	1068	Ghana	D	800
France	A	1044	Slovakia	F	777
Greece	B	964	Denmark	E	767
USA	C	957	Honduras	H	734
Serbia	D	947	Japan	E	682
Uruguay	A	899	Korea Republic	B	632
Mexico	A	895	New Zealand	F	410
Chile	H	888	South Africa	A	392
Cameroon	E	887	Korea DPR	G	285

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