Population transitions and temperature change in Minas Gerais, Brazil: a multidimensional approach^*

Transições populacionais e mudança de temperatura em Minas Gerais, Brasil: uma abordagem multidimensional

Transiciones poblacionales y cambio de temperatura en Minas Gerais, Brasil: un abordaje multidimensional

Climate change will exacerbate the vulnerability of places and people around the world in the next decades, especially in less developed regions. In this paper, we investigate future scenarios of population vulnerability to climate change for the next 30 years in 66 regions of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Based upon the Alkire & Foster Index, we integrate simulated and projected dimensions of population vulnerability into a Multidimensional Index, showing how scenarios of temperature change would affect each region's relative vulnerability in the future. Results suggest that economic and health dimensions are the highest contributors to increases in temperature-related vulnerability, with the poorest and agribusiness regions being the most impacted in decades to come.

Keywords:
Climate change; Population vulnerability; Population transitions; Multidimensional index; Minas Gerais