SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

vol.27 issue9Computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI): using the telephone for obtaining information on reproductive healthPrevalence of falls in elderly in Brazil: a countrywide analysis author indexsubject indexarticles search
Home Pagealphabetic serial listing  

Services on Demand




Related links


Cadernos de Saúde Pública

Print version ISSN 0102-311X


MARTINEZ, Edson Zangiacomi  and  SILVA, Elisângela Aparecida Soares da. Predicting the number of cases of dengue infection in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil, using a SARIMA model. Cad. Saúde Pública [online]. 2011, vol.27, n.9, pp.1809-1818. ISSN 0102-311X.

This study aimed to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of dengue in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo State, Brazil, using time series analysis. The model was performed using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Firstly, we fitted a model considering monthly notifications of cases of dengue recorded from 2000 to 2008 in Ribeirão Preto. We then extracted predicted values for 2009 from the adjusted model and compared them with the number of cases observed for that year. The SARIMA (2,1,3)(1,1,1)12 model offered best fit for the dengue incidence data. The results showed that the seasonal ARIMA model predicts the number of dengue cases very effectively and reliably, and is a useful tool for disease control and prevention.

Keywords : Dengue; Forecasting; Brostatistics.

        · abstract in Portuguese     · text in English     · English ( pdf )


Creative Commons License All the contents of this journal, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License